6 ms·

How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? It should be obvious to most, yet the supposed "smartest guys in the room

by tjpnz 3y ago

How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? It should be obvious to most, yet the supposed "smartest guys in the room" are the first to stumble through it.

kibwen 3y ago
Nobody ever got rich by questioning the wisdom of "line go up".
- LapsangGuzzler 3y ago
  The Big Short guys would vehemently disagree with this.
  - majormajor 3y ago
    Most of us aren't in the position to make that bet. The most I can afford to do usually is "leave this role because even though the press and investors are still on board, I don't think it's a good bet anymore." I've done it a few times, I've even been right about whether they'd make a good ROI on those new funds... and so I made modestly more in the new role than I would've by vesting more pointless options or whatever... but I couldn't really short those startups or subdivisions to make a fortune by them failing. While their founders/CEOs made a (small) fortune by failing, but in a big enough way.
  - paulpauper 3y ago
    One overhyped counterexample out of countless failures. major survivorship bias. Few short sellers make money.
shuckles 3y ago
How many tons of coal do we burn when we take advantage of an invention like language?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
fnord77 3y ago
miniaturize !
srackey 3y ago
People can make babies, and we’re not limited to a one planet ;)
- operatingthetan 3y ago
  An organism with a tendency for unchecked colonization might attract the wrong kind of attention.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    It's risky for humans to become multi-planetary lest we attract the power of super-intelligent aliens?
bdw5204 3y ago
The mistake people who ask this question make is assuming that growth must be contained on a single planet. As they used to say in a previous generation, mankind's destiny lies in the stars. And we don't get there by worrying about limits or by rejecting the idea that a better future is possible. Stagnation is a choice. Decline is a choice.
- majormajor 3y ago
  Really, we should be buying Google/Meta/Microsoft/etc stock because they will have interplanetary profits in [future]? I think there's a lot of other companies (both existing and not-existing-yet) that would capture a bunch of that growth first anyway. Nah, the mistake people make is assuming that everyone actually believed all these companies would grow forever. A huge part of recent tech valuations has been driven by "greater-fool" type pumping of selling questionable business models and half-baked ideas as fast as possible.
brigadier132 3y ago
> How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? Efficiency gains. How many "resources" are consumed by a piece of software relative to the "growth" that resulted from it? I can now have a machine generate 100 mediocre pieces of art for $20, two years ago each one would have cost $100 and taken a week for an actual artist to produce.
- lib-dev 3y ago
  Don't you reach a point of diminishing returns even with that?
- stkdump 3y ago
  If efficiency gains were the secret go (infinite) growth, then companies would be able to grow their business without growing their workforce, building more factories, warehouses, etc.
  - brigadier132 3y ago
    I don't follow your logic. Just because companies could grow their businesses without increasing their workforce it doesn't mean that they couldn't achieve a higher rate of growth by increasing their workforce.
    - stkdump 3y ago
      My point is if it were possible we should see at least some examples of it happening. So far it is an often recited conjecture without any practical proof, so I remain sceptical.
      - dukeyukey 3y ago
        > My point is if it were possible we should see at least some examples of it happening. We see it all the time? Google's revenue is up last quarter despite redundancies meaning they have a lower headcount. Adding robotics to a car production line can massively increase the productivity of a single factory despite needing less headcount, often allowing other factories to shut. Something like Intellij or Copilot can make the entire tech workforce more efficient _far_ in excess of what it cost to make.
drewcoo 3y ago
> How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? Wrong question. That's systems thinking. We're dealing with capitalism. You only need to run faster than the slowest competitor to not be eaten by the bear.
boringg 3y ago
Its easy. There are finite limits but if you aren’t near the limits your growth is indeed unconstrained especially if the pool of resources is incredibly deep.
Mistletoe 3y ago
I’ve always liked this article for a reality check. https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/ https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/
userbinator 3y ago
You squeeze people into living in conditions that make cattle in a factory farm today look good. As for convincing them? That's what propaganda is for.
crazygringo 3y ago
Growth doesn't intrinsically have to have anything to do with population or resources. Growth is fundamentally about ingenuity. If you develop a microchip that delivers the same performance but takes 50% less material and energy and cost to manufacture and use, that's growth. 2x growth in that area, to be precise. As long as we keep thinking of cleverer ways to do things, we keep growing economically. So it's really whether you think human ingenuity will come to a dead end?
somedude895 3y ago
If that was the case then GDP wouldn't be able to grow faster than the population. The fact that GDP per capita growth is a thing disproves that idea. And no, the GDP per capita growth of the past 50 years wasn't by simply using more natural resources either. Efficiency gains and new technologies and ideas can lead to growth as well.
hardware2win 3y ago
Theres still growth potential as of today.
- stainforth 3y ago
  Most people haven't even sold one organ yet, and they could
  - hardware2win 3y ago
    There money to be made on India's trsnsformation
alentred 3y ago
> How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? For the sake of the argument below, consider that there are two types of growth: 1) "evolutionary" - as you correctly observe it is limited by the availability of the known resources, and 2) "revolutionary" - which discovers entirely new growth potentials. History teaches us that so far the growth was not limited, but innovation was always a prerequisite for the growth and often unlocks new resources. Now, it is true that in the past couple of centuries humanity was gifted, through a lot of human effort, with a series of innovations that were accelerating the growth ever since. Truly, we don't know if this will continue as such, or slow down, or accelerate even more, or if we are going to hit a wall before the next scientific revolution. Finally, indeed it appears that resources are limited at some point (importantly: according to our current understanding of physics). But I trust that for all observable future there is still a seemingly unlimited potential for the growth, as long as we continue to innovate and don't destroy the resources. Sustainability (between the scientific revolutions?) appears to be a new part of the equation and we must take it seriously.
BeFlatXIII 3y ago
A whole bunch of fantasy hokum about the unlimited power of human ingenuity.

by tjpnz 3y ago

How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? It should be obvious to most, yet the supposed "smartest guys in the room" are the first to stumble through it.

kibwen 3y ago

Nobody ever got rich by questioning the wisdom of "line go up".

LapsangGuzzler 3y ago
The Big Short guys would vehemently disagree with this.
- majormajor 3y ago
  Most of us aren't in the position to make that bet. The most I can afford to do usually is "leave this role because even though the press and investors are still on board, I don't think it's a good bet anymore." I've done it a few times, I've even been right about whether they'd make a good ROI on those new funds... and so I made modestly more in the new role than I would've by vesting more pointless options or whatever... but I couldn't really short those startups or subdivisions to make a fortune by them failing. While their founders/CEOs made a (small) fortune by failing, but in a big enough way.
- paulpauper 3y ago
  One overhyped counterexample out of countless failures. major survivorship bias. Few short sellers make money.

shuckles 3y ago

How many tons of coal do we burn when we take advantage of an invention like language?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

fnord77 3y ago

miniaturize !

srackey 3y ago

People can make babies, and we’re not limited to a one planet ;)

operatingthetan 3y ago
An organism with a tendency for unchecked colonization might attract the wrong kind of attention.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  It's risky for humans to become multi-planetary lest we attract the power of super-intelligent aliens?

bdw5204 3y ago

The mistake people who ask this question make is assuming that growth must be contained on a single planet. As they used to say in a previous generation, mankind's destiny lies in the stars. And we don't get there by worrying about limits or by rejecting the idea that a better future is possible. Stagnation is a choice. Decline is a choice.

majormajor 3y ago
Really, we should be buying Google/Meta/Microsoft/etc stock because they will have interplanetary profits in [future]? I think there's a lot of other companies (both existing and not-existing-yet) that would capture a bunch of that growth first anyway. Nah, the mistake people make is assuming that everyone actually believed all these companies would grow forever. A huge part of recent tech valuations has been driven by "greater-fool" type pumping of selling questionable business models and half-baked ideas as fast as possible.

brigadier132 3y ago

> How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? Efficiency gains. How many "resources" are consumed by a piece of software relative to the "growth" that resulted from it? I can now have a machine generate 100 mediocre pieces of art for $20, two years ago each one would have cost $100 and taken a week for an actual artist to produce.

lib-dev 3y ago
Don't you reach a point of diminishing returns even with that?
stkdump 3y ago
If efficiency gains were the secret go (infinite) growth, then companies would be able to grow their business without growing their workforce, building more factories, warehouses, etc.
- brigadier132 3y ago
  I don't follow your logic. Just because companies could grow their businesses without increasing their workforce it doesn't mean that they couldn't achieve a higher rate of growth by increasing their workforce.
  - stkdump 3y ago
    My point is if it were possible we should see at least some examples of it happening. So far it is an often recited conjecture without any practical proof, so I remain sceptical.
    - dukeyukey 3y ago
      > My point is if it were possible we should see at least some examples of it happening. We see it all the time? Google's revenue is up last quarter despite redundancies meaning they have a lower headcount. Adding robotics to a car production line can massively increase the productivity of a single factory despite needing less headcount, often allowing other factories to shut. Something like Intellij or Copilot can make the entire tech workforce more efficient _far_ in excess of what it cost to make.

drewcoo 3y ago

> How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? Wrong question. That's systems thinking. We're dealing with capitalism. You only need to run faster than the slowest competitor to not be eaten by the bear.

boringg 3y ago

Its easy. There are finite limits but if you aren’t near the limits your growth is indeed unconstrained especially if the pool of resources is incredibly deep.

Mistletoe 3y ago

I’ve always liked this article for a reality check. https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/ https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/

userbinator 3y ago

You squeeze people into living in conditions that make cattle in a factory farm today look good. As for convincing them? That's what propaganda is for.

crazygringo 3y ago

Growth doesn't intrinsically have to have anything to do with population or resources. Growth is fundamentally about ingenuity. If you develop a microchip that delivers the same performance but takes 50% less material and energy and cost to manufacture and use, that's growth. 2x growth in that area, to be precise. As long as we keep thinking of cleverer ways to do things, we keep growing economically. So it's really whether you think human ingenuity will come to a dead end?

somedude895 3y ago

If that was the case then GDP wouldn't be able to grow faster than the population. The fact that GDP per capita growth is a thing disproves that idea. And no, the GDP per capita growth of the past 50 years wasn't by simply using more natural resources either. Efficiency gains and new technologies and ideas can lead to growth as well.

hardware2win 3y ago

Theres still growth potential as of today.

stainforth 3y ago
Most people haven't even sold one organ yet, and they could
- hardware2win 3y ago
  There money to be made on India's trsnsformation

alentred 3y ago

> How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? For the sake of the argument below, consider that there are two types of growth: 1) "evolutionary" - as you correctly observe it is limited by the availability of the known resources, and 2) "revolutionary" - which discovers entirely new growth potentials. History teaches us that so far the growth was not limited, but innovation was always a prerequisite for the growth and often unlocks new resources. Now, it is true that in the past couple of centuries humanity was gifted, through a lot of human effort, with a series of innovations that were accelerating the growth ever since. Truly, we don't know if this will continue as such, or slow down, or accelerate even more, or if we are going to hit a wall before the next scientific revolution. Finally, indeed it appears that resources are limited at some point (importantly: according to our current understanding of physics). But I trust that for all observable future there is still a seemingly unlimited potential for the growth, as long as we continue to innovate and don't destroy the resources. Sustainability (between the scientific revolutions?) appears to be a new part of the equation and we must take it seriously.

BeFlatXIII 3y ago

A whole bunch of fantasy hokum about the unlimited power of human ingenuity.