That bet didn't make sense even if Balaji was right; he could have bought 40 BTC instead of putting $1M into escrow. Then he would have made 40x the returns if

That bet didn't make sense even if Balaji was right; he could have bought 40 BTC instead of putting $1M into escrow. Then he would have made 40x the returns if he was right, and would have 1.03x his investment now even though he was wrong. It can really only be interpreted as a publicity stunt, possibly to pump BTC. Incidentally, I don't know if Manifold is reflective of 'almost everyone', but they had it at >50% for almost the entire duration: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-1m-vs-1btc-bet-between-jam https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-1m-vs-1bt...