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As for the argument that professions like plumbers and electricians who physically visit their customers are not threatened by AI, this is not quite true. For
by akolbe 3y ago
As for the argument that professions like plumbers and electricians who physically visit their customers are not threatened by AI, this is not quite true.
For example, utility companies would send someone round to read our meter. Now they want us to have a smart meter (or, failing that, report our consumption online ourselves).
A current development in the automotive sector is toward systems that can be diagnosed and monitored automatically and remotely, and in some cases even fixed remotely, cutting out physical visits to a service centre. This will happen in other sectors as well.
Once your boiler or heat pump has enough sensors to monitor everything that could go wrong, physical visits will only be required once there is actually something that needs physically fixing. Etc.
- nradov 3y agoMeter reading was always unskilled labor. Utility companies didn't send plumbers or electricians to do those jobs.
- clarkevans 3y agoAs these things have become more technologically sophisticated over the decades, I've needed more frequent and longer visits with more failures than ever before. I'm not sure why that trend would be changing.
- ke88y 3y agoBut we're talking about the labor market around the widget, not the TCO of the widget. Automotive is a prime example: the added complexity increases lifetime maintenance costs, but at the same time the labor share of captured value has declined substantially. I think this is currently the cardinal mistake people make when they that reason about the impact of automation. Labor doesn't get completely automated and replaced. Instead, one of two other things happen: 1. It gets de-skilled and commodified (GPS+Maps+smartphone -> complete deskilling of taxi driving). 2. Or it gets cut out from the profits (software in cars -> dealerships and "certified" mechanics capture more maintenance labor -> central entities get to extract more value. See also app stores.)
- kjs3 3y agoI just replaced the 30+ year old, non-intelligent water heater with a brand new non-intelligent water heater. And a 20 year old, non-intelligent air conditioner with the same. So if tomorrow morning, across the whole world, you can only buy AI-enabled, sensor ladened smart appliances, we will still need real people to cater to the poor dumb appliances for decades.