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> 10-15 years out AI will be good enough to wipe out at least half of all software developers on the planet This reminds me of self driving car predictions. It

• adventured 3y ago
  That's actually a great supporting point to why AI will wipe most developers out. What you're referring to is one of the AI systems that I mention that the top ~25% will still write code for directly. It's a governing AI system. Most software development doesn't involve tasks that can very easily kill people with N thousand pounds of fast moving metal. Most software development is trivial by comparison in terms of challenge/complexity. It'll be wiped out accordingly. Why would you need anything more than a human handler to sign off on AI development as it goes down a path? It'll be able to build drastically faster than a median developer can and it can do it without getting tired (its productivity won't implode after 4-6 hours). All you'll need are some human handlers to approve key decisions during the process of development (to ensure you get to the end product that is desired).
  • yamazakiwi 3y ago
    We have a lot of stages to go through before we achieve the level of development you're describing, and I don't think you can confidently argue 10-15 years vs 5-10 years vs 20-30 years. As with most technology job predictions, it won't happen the way most predict. Yes what defines a developer/swe will change, but our history has shown us that we are likely to see an increase of jobs in technology for the long term. I remain optimistic that most people will find new roles as they emerge.