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I had long assumed the Tesla Bot was a joke or a gimmick or a lie. If Tesla ships a humanoid robot in the next few years I'm going to massively downgrade my own

I had long assumed the Tesla Bot was a joke or a gimmick or a lie. If Tesla ships a humanoid robot in the next few years I'm going to massively downgrade my own credibility with myself.

grecy 3y ago
Obviously timelines are a massive miss, but I think you'd have to be a bit crazy to bet against anything Elon's big companies say they're going to do. Outright best selling car in Europe in Q1 2023. (Model Y) Best selling non-pickup in the US in Q1 2023. (Model Y) Re-usable rockets that have completed 200 successful missions and the launch and landing are so common-place they're not even news. 1.5 million Starlink customers. Starship progressing, integral part of the new moon landing plans. They are consistently doing things that "experts" said couldn't be done.
- recursv_thnkng 3y ago
  Best selling non-pickup in US is a pretty broad category. Do you mean the “high end luxury” segment or a more narrow EV segment? I have a hard time believing Tesla is outselling Toyota and Hyundai
  - olyjohn 3y ago
    I had to look it up myself to believe it. It outsold the Rav4, and outsold the CRV. It's outsold everything except the F150, Silverado, and RAM. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...
    - throwawaymobule 3y ago
      it's not that surprising, considering they're only selling five models of car right now. (from memory) like I'd be unsurprised to learn that some apple product was the top-selling device in some catagory.
  - grecy 3y ago
    > I have a hard time believing Tesla is outselling Toyota and Hyundai Believe it https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...
    - recursv_thnkng 3y ago
      Thanks for link. It’s definitely an incredible story. Going from nothing to best selling car within a couple years.
- kevviiinn 3y ago
  How about hyperloop, for example
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    He released a Bluepaper and said, 'I like this idea but I'm not gone work on it as a product'. How is that a failure? Hyperloop isn't a great idea, I don't think, but calling it failure is kind of dumb.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - kevviiinn 3y ago
      Walking away from a project of yours is a failure, it's a failure when you decide something isn't worth pursuing. Not to mention I can say I'm "not interested" in pursuing something I know I won't work
      - panick21_ 3y ago
        Looking at an idea and saying 'not worth perusing' isn't a failure. Should every concept vehicle of every car company that didn't get built considered a failure? Every design study ever done by any engineering firm is a failure? Something is a failure if you invest large amounts of money into something and get nothing out of it.
    - JohnFen 3y ago
      Hyperloop is clearly a tremendous failure. Even Musk eventually realized that, which is why he walked away.
      - panick21_ 3y ago
        You are getting the timeline wrong. Musk said he didn't have time or interest in perusing Hyperloop before he even released the Blue Paper. Maybe Hyperloop as a concept is a failure, that is correct. But for Musk, releasing a idea as a short paper and not perusing it beyond that isn't a relevant failure. If he had invested 100M$ and then walked away, then I would consider it a real failure for him. As it stands, its a couple of wasted weekends doodling on project. If that is the most people can come up with talking about failures, then its really not worth talking about.
- JohnFen 3y ago
  Musk isn't magic or genius. He's had more failures than successes, like everyone else. I can only think of two successes, Tesla and SpaceX (and I think I'm being generous by including SpaceX because it isn't a success yet)
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    Calling the most successful space company in history 'not a success yet' is an insane position to hold. Its not a success to have more launch payload to orbit then double of the rest of the world combined. To return the US to human launch. Having the most reliable rocket in history. Having revolutionized both the launch and the sat industry? Launched the largest rocket in the history of the world. Not sure what those things are other then great successes. If you are referring to the idea that SpaceX isn't profitable, then I would just say that SpaceX core business is very profitable and high margin. Because it was so profitable and high margin the had many investor to double down and take an two massive projects, Starlink and Starship. Starlink just recently has turned cash flow positive. And Starship is progressing very fast, just reticently a new world record in rocket engines was achieved with Raptor 3. Calling this anything other a brilliant success is just bad faith. Also, Zip2, Paypay are successes by any metric. Boring company is not a clear cut success but its also not a failure, most people would be happy having created a company like that, in Musk terms it isn't very successful yet. Also counting two 100 billion $ business 'a success' is a bit of an understatement.
    - paulryanrogers 3y ago
      SpaceX didn't start from zero (former NASA talent) and isn't funded entirely by private industry (gov grants and leases). Got a link for the most reliable rocket ever? Astronomers aren't too happy with StarLink, nor pedestrians with Tesla FSD beta being open to any driver with more money than sense. Musk's track record is heavily spotted. We can celebrate the successes together without turning a blind eye to the problems.
      - panick21_ 3y ago
        > SpaceX didn't start from zero (former NASA talent) So to be considered 'starting from zero' a company needs to first create its own humans in a lab? > isn't funded entirely by private industry (gov grants and leases) Nobody claimed it was. > Got a link for the most reliable rocket ever? Not on my right now, but it just had 200 successful missions in a row. There is a link somewhere about statical methods of reliability and Falcon 9 is on top of that list. Even by just looking at simple % probability they are on top. I don't have the link at hand but if I can find it later Ill add it. > Astronomers aren't too happy with StarLink, nor pedestrians with Tesla FSD beta being open to any driver with more money than sense. So in order t ob considered successful every single person on the plant needs to love you? > Musk's track record is heavily spotted. We can celebrate the successes together without turning a blind eye to the problems. I am not doing that. Not everything has to be perfect to consider something a success. That a ridiculous standard.
- quantified 3y ago
  In previously established fields. Nothing net new, some really good increments. Self-driving: I'll bet against that for the next 3 years. Hyperloop? Ha, made you look!
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    I really don't understand what people obsession with Hyperloop is. Musk dabbled with it for like a year, released a blue paper and said, I like this idea but I have not time to work on it. Anybody else can take it or leave it and has since mostly ignored the idea. And 10 years later people clown Musk because Hyperloop doesn't exist. > Nothing net new Rapid rocket re-usability is 'nothing net new'. I mean you can argue that Shuttle was 'reusable' but in terms of revolutionary effect, SpaceX is now literally launching more payload to orbit then the rest of the world combined by 2-3x. If that's incremental, I like to know what you consider revolutionary. > In previously established fields. Is your argument here that he has not established a new field of scientific study? Can you prove and example of somebody that created a new 'field'?
    - vlovich123 3y ago
      Boring company?
      - panick21_ 3y ago
        Not sure what you are asking. Boring company is not building a Hyperloop. They have said they might do some testing in the future on some of these idea but that is not their primary reason for existing. They are just doing EVs in a tunnel, or 'Loop' how they call it.
        vlovich123 3y ago
        They’re a tunnel construction company that was supposed to revolutionize how tunnels are made but afaict Musk got bored with it and abandoned it.
imtringued 3y ago
It's a gimmick. He hasn't built a single Mars or space related robot so far. I mean imagine building a humanoid robot that works with earth's gravity and then put it on Mars and have to struggle with balance again. He should have built a rover instead. The Artemis 3 mission is in two years there is hardly any time left for them to build anything they could test on the moon.
- v0idzer0 3y ago
  What does this have to do with Mars? These are built in Tesla factories on Earth

I had long assumed the Tesla Bot was a joke or a gimmick or a lie. If Tesla ships a humanoid robot in the next few years I'm going to massively downgrade my own credibility with myself.

grecy 3y ago

Obviously timelines are a massive miss, but I think you'd have to be a bit crazy to bet against anything Elon's big companies say they're going to do. Outright best selling car in Europe in Q1 2023. (Model Y) Best selling non-pickup in the US in Q1 2023. (Model Y) Re-usable rockets that have completed 200 successful missions and the launch and landing are so common-place they're not even news. 1.5 million Starlink customers. Starship progressing, integral part of the new moon landing plans. They are consistently doing things that "experts" said couldn't be done.

recursv_thnkng 3y ago
Best selling non-pickup in US is a pretty broad category. Do you mean the “high end luxury” segment or a more narrow EV segment? I have a hard time believing Tesla is outselling Toyota and Hyundai
- olyjohn 3y ago
  I had to look it up myself to believe it. It outsold the Rav4, and outsold the CRV. It's outsold everything except the F150, Silverado, and RAM. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...
  - throwawaymobule 3y ago
    it's not that surprising, considering they're only selling five models of car right now. (from memory) like I'd be unsurprised to learn that some apple product was the top-selling device in some catagory.
- grecy 3y ago
  > I have a hard time believing Tesla is outselling Toyota and Hyundai Believe it https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...
  - recursv_thnkng 3y ago
    Thanks for link. It’s definitely an incredible story. Going from nothing to best selling car within a couple years.
kevviiinn 3y ago
How about hyperloop, for example
- panick21_ 3y ago
  He released a Bluepaper and said, 'I like this idea but I'm not gone work on it as a product'. How is that a failure? Hyperloop isn't a great idea, I don't think, but calling it failure is kind of dumb.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - kevviiinn 3y ago
    Walking away from a project of yours is a failure, it's a failure when you decide something isn't worth pursuing. Not to mention I can say I'm "not interested" in pursuing something I know I won't work
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      Looking at an idea and saying 'not worth perusing' isn't a failure. Should every concept vehicle of every car company that didn't get built considered a failure? Every design study ever done by any engineering firm is a failure? Something is a failure if you invest large amounts of money into something and get nothing out of it.
  - JohnFen 3y ago
    Hyperloop is clearly a tremendous failure. Even Musk eventually realized that, which is why he walked away.
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      You are getting the timeline wrong. Musk said he didn't have time or interest in perusing Hyperloop before he even released the Blue Paper. Maybe Hyperloop as a concept is a failure, that is correct. But for Musk, releasing a idea as a short paper and not perusing it beyond that isn't a relevant failure. If he had invested 100M$ and then walked away, then I would consider it a real failure for him. As it stands, its a couple of wasted weekends doodling on project. If that is the most people can come up with talking about failures, then its really not worth talking about.
JohnFen 3y ago
Musk isn't magic or genius. He's had more failures than successes, like everyone else. I can only think of two successes, Tesla and SpaceX (and I think I'm being generous by including SpaceX because it isn't a success yet)
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Calling the most successful space company in history 'not a success yet' is an insane position to hold. Its not a success to have more launch payload to orbit then double of the rest of the world combined. To return the US to human launch. Having the most reliable rocket in history. Having revolutionized both the launch and the sat industry? Launched the largest rocket in the history of the world. Not sure what those things are other then great successes. If you are referring to the idea that SpaceX isn't profitable, then I would just say that SpaceX core business is very profitable and high margin. Because it was so profitable and high margin the had many investor to double down and take an two massive projects, Starlink and Starship. Starlink just recently has turned cash flow positive. And Starship is progressing very fast, just reticently a new world record in rocket engines was achieved with Raptor 3. Calling this anything other a brilliant success is just bad faith. Also, Zip2, Paypay are successes by any metric. Boring company is not a clear cut success but its also not a failure, most people would be happy having created a company like that, in Musk terms it isn't very successful yet. Also counting two 100 billion $ business 'a success' is a bit of an understatement.
  - paulryanrogers 3y ago
    SpaceX didn't start from zero (former NASA talent) and isn't funded entirely by private industry (gov grants and leases). Got a link for the most reliable rocket ever? Astronomers aren't too happy with StarLink, nor pedestrians with Tesla FSD beta being open to any driver with more money than sense. Musk's track record is heavily spotted. We can celebrate the successes together without turning a blind eye to the problems.
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      > SpaceX didn't start from zero (former NASA talent) So to be considered 'starting from zero' a company needs to first create its own humans in a lab? > isn't funded entirely by private industry (gov grants and leases) Nobody claimed it was. > Got a link for the most reliable rocket ever? Not on my right now, but it just had 200 successful missions in a row. There is a link somewhere about statical methods of reliability and Falcon 9 is on top of that list. Even by just looking at simple % probability they are on top. I don't have the link at hand but if I can find it later Ill add it. > Astronomers aren't too happy with StarLink, nor pedestrians with Tesla FSD beta being open to any driver with more money than sense. So in order t ob considered successful every single person on the plant needs to love you? > Musk's track record is heavily spotted. We can celebrate the successes together without turning a blind eye to the problems. I am not doing that. Not everything has to be perfect to consider something a success. That a ridiculous standard.
quantified 3y ago
In previously established fields. Nothing net new, some really good increments. Self-driving: I'll bet against that for the next 3 years. Hyperloop? Ha, made you look!
- panick21_ 3y ago
  I really don't understand what people obsession with Hyperloop is. Musk dabbled with it for like a year, released a blue paper and said, I like this idea but I have not time to work on it. Anybody else can take it or leave it and has since mostly ignored the idea. And 10 years later people clown Musk because Hyperloop doesn't exist. > Nothing net new Rapid rocket re-usability is 'nothing net new'. I mean you can argue that Shuttle was 'reusable' but in terms of revolutionary effect, SpaceX is now literally launching more payload to orbit then the rest of the world combined by 2-3x. If that's incremental, I like to know what you consider revolutionary. > In previously established fields. Is your argument here that he has not established a new field of scientific study? Can you prove and example of somebody that created a new 'field'?
  - vlovich123 3y ago
    Boring company?
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      Not sure what you are asking. Boring company is not building a Hyperloop. They have said they might do some testing in the future on some of these idea but that is not their primary reason for existing. They are just doing EVs in a tunnel, or 'Loop' how they call it.
      - vlovich123 3y ago
        They’re a tunnel construction company that was supposed to revolutionize how tunnels are made but afaict Musk got bored with it and abandoned it.

imtringued 3y ago

It's a gimmick. He hasn't built a single Mars or space related robot so far. I mean imagine building a humanoid robot that works with earth's gravity and then put it on Mars and have to struggle with balance again. He should have built a rover instead. The Artemis 3 mission is in two years there is hardly any time left for them to build anything they could test on the moon.

v0idzer0 3y ago
What does this have to do with Mars? These are built in Tesla factories on Earth