4 ms·

What are some of the stocks you view as fire sales?

by adwi 3y ago

phkahler 3y ago
You might like a P/E of 7.14 for XOM - ExxonMobil, but you'd also be betting against EVs taking over the world in the near term (not a bad bet IMHO). The yield is only 3.5 percent, but they have a history of not reducing the dividend so it's conservative. I'd call it a fire sale but the stock price itself hasn't done much overall in 15 years either. You can't fight public perception ;-)
adam_arthur 3y ago
My portfolio is primarily yield focused on a risk adjusted basis. I like PINE here at 10x AFFO, far cheaper than peers like O or ADC, but with similar risk profile. CTO same story. Both around 10% earnings yield, and better positioned than peers for growth. PINE is classic retail net lease, CTO is outdoor shopping centers in the sunbelt. Growth prospects, but also fine if they stay flat and yield 10% in perpetuity Bonds are interesting here, but would need to see wider spreads for higher quality/non-idiosyncratic ones to be compelling. I like and own MPW bonds, which pay 10%+... much safer than the equity. Certain BDCs are a screaming deal if you assume their portfolios can weather a recession well enough. CSWC is one of my favorite more traditional middle market lenders with 13% yield and low leverage. Conservative/smart management. RWAY is one of my favorites here… over 15% yield with room to grow. Venture debt lender, valued at around 0.7x book value. They’ve been lumped in with other Venture lenders whose portfolio quality is very poor in comparison. Lenders can easily blow up in a severe recession if they’re mismanaged or have weak portfolios… but given the banking turmoil, the sector has sold off indiscriminately and more than priced it in for some. PBR.A has a PE around 2-3 and pays 30% a year in dividends. Valuation is low due to political risk from new Brazilian government. For a more speculative play, NLCP pays around 13% yield with 0 debt, and some cash on hand. They own cannabis cultivation/retail facilities. The sector is falling apart due to declining cannabis prices, but we just hit the inflection point recently where pricing is starting to rise again due to competitors dropping out, and I think the fears have more than priced in what’s to come. Not one I’d own longer term due to eventual offshoring of production. These are my more compelling total return plays, but there are many many more that are safer and still yield far higher than AAPL. JEPI is a great one… owns primarily defensive stocks, and pays 10%/year from options income. However average holding PE is around 22, so Im waiting for it to get knocked down into the teens before I go bigger. Same with SCHD
adverbly 3y ago
Are we getting our stock tips in public on the internet now from anonymous sources? That will make things a lot easier for me. Doing actual research myself was kind of hard. /sarcasm
- hnfong 3y ago
  “If shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, then it's time to get out of the market.”

What are some of the stocks you view as fire sales?

by adwi 3y ago

What are some of the stocks you view as fire sales?

You might like a P/E of 7.14 for XOM - ExxonMobil, but you'd also be betting against EVs taking over the world in the near term (not a bad bet IMHO). The yield is only 3.5 percent, but they have a history of not reducing the dividend so it's conservative. I'd call it a fire sale but the stock price itself hasn't done much overall in 15 years either. You can't fight public perception ;-)

adam_arthur 3y ago

My portfolio is primarily yield focused on a risk adjusted basis. I like PINE here at 10x AFFO, far cheaper than peers like O or ADC, but with similar risk profile. CTO same story. Both around 10% earnings yield, and better positioned than peers for growth. PINE is classic retail net lease, CTO is outdoor shopping centers in the sunbelt. Growth prospects, but also fine if they stay flat and yield 10% in perpetuity Bonds are interesting here, but would need to see wider spreads for higher quality/non-idiosyncratic ones to be compelling. I like and own MPW bonds, which pay 10%+... much safer than the equity. Certain BDCs are a screaming deal if you assume their portfolios can weather a recession well enough. CSWC is one of my favorite more traditional middle market lenders with 13% yield and low leverage. Conservative/smart management. RWAY is one of my favorites here… over 15% yield with room to grow. Venture debt lender, valued at around 0.7x book value. They’ve been lumped in with other Venture lenders whose portfolio quality is very poor in comparison. Lenders can easily blow up in a severe recession if they’re mismanaged or have weak portfolios… but given the banking turmoil, the sector has sold off indiscriminately and more than priced it in for some. PBR.A has a PE around 2-3 and pays 30% a year in dividends. Valuation is low due to political risk from new Brazilian government. For a more speculative play, NLCP pays around 13% yield with 0 debt, and some cash on hand. They own cannabis cultivation/retail facilities. The sector is falling apart due to declining cannabis prices, but we just hit the inflection point recently where pricing is starting to rise again due to competitors dropping out, and I think the fears have more than priced in what’s to come. Not one I’d own longer term due to eventual offshoring of production. These are my more compelling total return plays, but there are many many more that are safer and still yield far higher than AAPL. JEPI is a great one… owns primarily defensive stocks, and pays 10%/year from options income. However average holding PE is around 22, so Im waiting for it to get knocked down into the teens before I go bigger. Same with SCHD

adverbly 3y ago

Are we getting our stock tips in public on the internet now from anonymous sources? That will make things a lot easier for me. Doing actual research myself was kind of hard. /sarcasm

hnfong 3y ago
“If shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, then it's time to get out of the market.”