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Google's brand is only bested by Apple in the minds of consumers. They will never go away. It doesn't matter if ChatGPT or anything else comes along - 95% of th

Google's brand is only bested by Apple in the minds of consumers. They will never go away. It doesn't matter if ChatGPT or anything else comes along - 95% of the billions of daily Google users will wait for Google's version. I am honestly surprised that the Alphabet market cap hasn't reached $2T yet.

throwuxiytayq 3y ago
Waiting for a Google product to start working well (or to start respecting you as a user) isn’t a strategy that gets you very far these days.
samwillis 3y ago
> I am honestly surprised that the Alphabet market cap hasn't reached $2T yet. Because online advertising, particularly search ads, are working less well for advertisers and regulators are pushing for more changes. The vast majority of Google revenue comes from an industry that is facing massive risks. On top of that I don't think it's clear that "AI" in search will help Google sell advertising or increase revenue. It's also likely to bring them under even more scrutiny from regulators. In many ways AI is harder to sell ads against, Google is payed when people leave the page via a click on an ad. That doesn't happen when Google is summarising the content. Microsoft/Bing have found a brilliant way to attack Google, build a product that they have to copy that (potentially) decimates ad revenue.
- pyrale 3y ago
  > Microsoft/Bing have found a brilliant way to attack Google, build a product that they have to copy that (potentially) decimates ad revenue. Didn't 0-click search as a trend for google search predate bing's changes?
- trasz4 3y ago
  >Google is payed when people leave the page via a click on an ad Not really. The click rate is iirc usually around 5%; I'm not convinced this is much higher than the "noise floor" generated by a human equivalent of drunk racoons. So in practice Google is being paid for displays.
v4dok 3y ago
Google is an advertising business. Can you sell more ads with AI? I would say no. And even if you can, having an automated smart assistant being able to "cut" through the BS is certainly not as good for Google as clicking a bunch of sites trying to battle SEO. However the judge is still out in regards to how much can AI allow Google to squeeze the profit margins of businesses by offering even better conversion rates. Personally, I don't think it will make a big difference, the AI will not make you buy more. I suspect Google makes more money by having multiple companies fight for the same customer than actually making a conversion. IMO best case scenario for Google is to keep their search market. Table stakes is keeping search relevant at all.
- mtrovo 3y ago
  Wouldn't this help google on second order effects tho? I guess having an AI summarizing the web would lead to less incentive to create the type of SEO junk that made searching in Google so awful in the past years. Also for queries asking for product recommendation, where ad price is quite high, they could still plug ads into an LLM and have it write a summary back to you similar to what magazines do with sponsored content.
  - trasz4 3y ago
    >I guess having an AI summarizing the web would lead to less incentive to create the type of SEO junk that made searching in Google so awful in the past years. Main part of Google's business is selling infrastructure for that SEO junk, AdWords et al. Sure, you meant the _other_ SEO junk, but from AI point of view both would be noise to be separated from actual content.
- tscherno 3y ago
  Can't they massively improve their ad-targeting by analyzing conversations with the AI?
  - SiempreViernes 3y ago
    People are already freaked out plenty by the idea that googles products spies on you to sell ads. To start doing it outright will definitely kill uptake of any AI service they provide.
chpatrick 3y ago
That's what we thought about Google Plus. What's the last time Google launched a product that everyone really uses?
- endisneigh 3y ago
  when's the last time any company has launched a product everyone really uses? for the sake of conversation let's say 2 billion+ for everyone.
  - iTokio 3y ago
    ChatGPT
    - oittaa 3y ago
      Not even close to 2B users. Google have probably 10 different products with more than 2B monthly users.
      - raincole 3y ago
        It's very hard to believe. Besides search, Android, Chrome and Gmail are in 2B~4B range. Are there really another 6 products that are ubiquitous as these 3? Google Docs definitely doesn't have 2B monthly users. Some built-in Android apps might be installed on >2B phones, but it doesn't mean they have that many active users.
        rpdillon 3y ago
        The article mentions they have six products with 2 billion users.
        avrionov 3y ago
        Google Search, Android, Chrome, Gmail, Google Play Store, and YouTube Also Google Maps, Google Photos and Google Drive have more than 1B users.
  - 3y ago
xbmcuser 3y ago
Its because unlike Microsoft and Apple. Google has no real presence in China which keeps it out of one of the world's largest and fast growing economies
silvestrov 3y ago
> They will never go away. History would say otherwise. Look at how quickly Nokia went south. Look at how quickly Google took over from the AltaVista search engine.
- denismenace 3y ago
  The Nokia example makes much more sense in this case since it was an established company. On the other hand AltaVista was on the early days of the internet where everything was much more turbulent.
- fendy3002 3y ago
  Don't think that with GCP and play store it'll be as easy to replace Google though
  - TexanFeller 3y ago
    Compared to AWS, no one uses GCP. Compared to IOS App Store, Play Store doesn't sell any paid apps and subscriptions, only adware.
    - kernal 3y ago
      Google Play 2021 revenue was 48 Billion and 42 Billion in 2022. I suggest you google in the future. Also, I have an iPhone and it's filled with just as much adware, crapware and ridiculous subscription apps.
  - spiralpolitik 3y ago
    You don’t have to replace them. You just need to reduce the income from search based ads by enough to cause them to implode. Hard to fund loss leaders like Android with say 20% less revenue.
    - jsnell 3y ago
      None of us know what the direct profitability of Android is. Given the revenue from Play Store, it at the very least is not obvious that it's a loss-leader. But one thing that is obvious is that having 20% less revenue would not mean Google was unable to work on Android. We know that, because they were able to already fund Android in the distant past of 2021, when their revenue was 20% lower than now. (In fact, they were able to afford Android in 2010, with 90% lower revenue.)
pyrale 3y ago
Really? To me, Google's image is much closer to that of Microsoft : You may hear of them in a few innovative projects, but most of what you know and use from them is boring office stuff, or personal stuff that you take for granted and don't think twice about. Having an Android or using Chrome isn't a personal statement like having an iphone or a macbook is. And in terms of ethics, the perception of them being a force for good eroded a lot. When thinking about the typical googler, people around here will sooner think about an exec trying to skip some tax than about a techie doing innovative stuff, because that's what their media coverage is about these days in Europe. I'll give you that Microsoft is very unlikely to go away either, unless the US govt finally remembers they have antitrust laws.
- oblio 3y ago
  You're a techie (and/or business tech person). Go ask 10 non-tech people what they think of Google.
  - pyrale 3y ago
    Likely the same as they think about fb, microsoft, netflix, amazon-tech, uber, etc: employees are probably handsomely paid, and taxes probably aren't. Actually as a factoid, I recently changed jobs, and got handed an iphone for work. People noticed it and commented on it, whereas a pixel would probably have not raised much attention.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - kernal 3y ago
    You mean the same people that use it as a verb? Which is the highest compliment you could give a product and is so rare that companies can only dream about it.
- alphabetting 3y ago
  Youtube and Google are the top two highest favorability brands among gen Z https://archive.is/8Ippr https://archive.is/8Ippr
m0llusk 3y ago
Never is a really long time.
EduardoBautista 3y ago
Some of Google's success comes from being "free". It's not necessarily because consumers believe Google has the best services/products. It's hard for a software company to compete against the largest ad network ever created.
1980phipsi 3y ago
Google does annoy the shit out of me when using it behind a VPN. Constantly asking me to do Captchas. Never have that problem with bing or duckduckgo.
siva7 3y ago
Yeah, that's what Microsoft (Windows era), Xerox, Kodak, IBM (PC era) and so on also thought back then about their own "monopoly" and brand ;)
munchler 3y ago
ChatGPT is the fastest growing application in history. It had 100 million monthly active users just two months after launch. No one is “waiting” for Google’s version.
fomine3 3y ago
On Enterprise, Microsoft >> Google

throwuxiytayq 3y ago

Waiting for a Google product to start working well (or to start respecting you as a user) isn’t a strategy that gets you very far these days.

samwillis 3y ago

> I am honestly surprised that the Alphabet market cap hasn't reached $2T yet. Because online advertising, particularly search ads, are working less well for advertisers and regulators are pushing for more changes. The vast majority of Google revenue comes from an industry that is facing massive risks. On top of that I don't think it's clear that "AI" in search will help Google sell advertising or increase revenue. It's also likely to bring them under even more scrutiny from regulators. In many ways AI is harder to sell ads against, Google is payed when people leave the page via a click on an ad. That doesn't happen when Google is summarising the content. Microsoft/Bing have found a brilliant way to attack Google, build a product that they have to copy that (potentially) decimates ad revenue.

pyrale 3y ago
> Microsoft/Bing have found a brilliant way to attack Google, build a product that they have to copy that (potentially) decimates ad revenue. Didn't 0-click search as a trend for google search predate bing's changes?
trasz4 3y ago
>Google is payed when people leave the page via a click on an ad Not really. The click rate is iirc usually around 5%; I'm not convinced this is much higher than the "noise floor" generated by a human equivalent of drunk racoons. So in practice Google is being paid for displays.

v4dok 3y ago

Google is an advertising business. Can you sell more ads with AI? I would say no. And even if you can, having an automated smart assistant being able to "cut" through the BS is certainly not as good for Google as clicking a bunch of sites trying to battle SEO. However the judge is still out in regards to how much can AI allow Google to squeeze the profit margins of businesses by offering even better conversion rates. Personally, I don't think it will make a big difference, the AI will not make you buy more. I suspect Google makes more money by having multiple companies fight for the same customer than actually making a conversion. IMO best case scenario for Google is to keep their search market. Table stakes is keeping search relevant at all.

mtrovo 3y ago
Wouldn't this help google on second order effects tho? I guess having an AI summarizing the web would lead to less incentive to create the type of SEO junk that made searching in Google so awful in the past years. Also for queries asking for product recommendation, where ad price is quite high, they could still plug ads into an LLM and have it write a summary back to you similar to what magazines do with sponsored content.
- trasz4 3y ago
  >I guess having an AI summarizing the web would lead to less incentive to create the type of SEO junk that made searching in Google so awful in the past years. Main part of Google's business is selling infrastructure for that SEO junk, AdWords et al. Sure, you meant the _other_ SEO junk, but from AI point of view both would be noise to be separated from actual content.
tscherno 3y ago
Can't they massively improve their ad-targeting by analyzing conversations with the AI?
- SiempreViernes 3y ago
  People are already freaked out plenty by the idea that googles products spies on you to sell ads. To start doing it outright will definitely kill uptake of any AI service they provide.

chpatrick 3y ago

That's what we thought about Google Plus. What's the last time Google launched a product that everyone really uses?

endisneigh 3y ago
when's the last time any company has launched a product everyone really uses? for the sake of conversation let's say 2 billion+ for everyone.
- iTokio 3y ago
  ChatGPT
  - oittaa 3y ago
    Not even close to 2B users. Google have probably 10 different products with more than 2B monthly users.
    - raincole 3y ago
      It's very hard to believe. Besides search, Android, Chrome and Gmail are in 2B~4B range. Are there really another 6 products that are ubiquitous as these 3? Google Docs definitely doesn't have 2B monthly users. Some built-in Android apps might be installed on >2B phones, but it doesn't mean they have that many active users.
      - rpdillon 3y ago
        The article mentions they have six products with 2 billion users.
      - avrionov 3y ago
        Google Search, Android, Chrome, Gmail, Google Play Store, and YouTube Also Google Maps, Google Photos and Google Drive have more than 1B users.
- 3y ago

xbmcuser 3y ago

Its because unlike Microsoft and Apple. Google has no real presence in China which keeps it out of one of the world's largest and fast growing economies

silvestrov 3y ago

> They will never go away. History would say otherwise. Look at how quickly Nokia went south. Look at how quickly Google took over from the AltaVista search engine.

denismenace 3y ago
The Nokia example makes much more sense in this case since it was an established company. On the other hand AltaVista was on the early days of the internet where everything was much more turbulent.
fendy3002 3y ago
Don't think that with GCP and play store it'll be as easy to replace Google though
- TexanFeller 3y ago
  Compared to AWS, no one uses GCP. Compared to IOS App Store, Play Store doesn't sell any paid apps and subscriptions, only adware.
  - kernal 3y ago
    Google Play 2021 revenue was 48 Billion and 42 Billion in 2022. I suggest you google in the future. Also, I have an iPhone and it's filled with just as much adware, crapware and ridiculous subscription apps.
- spiralpolitik 3y ago
  You don’t have to replace them. You just need to reduce the income from search based ads by enough to cause them to implode. Hard to fund loss leaders like Android with say 20% less revenue.
  - jsnell 3y ago
    None of us know what the direct profitability of Android is. Given the revenue from Play Store, it at the very least is not obvious that it's a loss-leader. But one thing that is obvious is that having 20% less revenue would not mean Google was unable to work on Android. We know that, because they were able to already fund Android in the distant past of 2021, when their revenue was 20% lower than now. (In fact, they were able to afford Android in 2010, with 90% lower revenue.)

pyrale 3y ago

Really? To me, Google's image is much closer to that of Microsoft : You may hear of them in a few innovative projects, but most of what you know and use from them is boring office stuff, or personal stuff that you take for granted and don't think twice about. Having an Android or using Chrome isn't a personal statement like having an iphone or a macbook is. And in terms of ethics, the perception of them being a force for good eroded a lot. When thinking about the typical googler, people around here will sooner think about an exec trying to skip some tax than about a techie doing innovative stuff, because that's what their media coverage is about these days in Europe. I'll give you that Microsoft is very unlikely to go away either, unless the US govt finally remembers they have antitrust laws.

oblio 3y ago
You're a techie (and/or business tech person). Go ask 10 non-tech people what they think of Google.
- pyrale 3y ago
  Likely the same as they think about fb, microsoft, netflix, amazon-tech, uber, etc: employees are probably handsomely paid, and taxes probably aren't. Actually as a factoid, I recently changed jobs, and got handed an iphone for work. People noticed it and commented on it, whereas a pixel would probably have not raised much attention.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- kernal 3y ago
  You mean the same people that use it as a verb? Which is the highest compliment you could give a product and is so rare that companies can only dream about it.
alphabetting 3y ago
Youtube and Google are the top two highest favorability brands among gen Z https://archive.is/8Ippr https://archive.is/8Ippr

m0llusk 3y ago

Never is a really long time.

EduardoBautista 3y ago

Some of Google's success comes from being "free". It's not necessarily because consumers believe Google has the best services/products. It's hard for a software company to compete against the largest ad network ever created.

1980phipsi 3y ago

Google does annoy the shit out of me when using it behind a VPN. Constantly asking me to do Captchas. Never have that problem with bing or duckduckgo.

siva7 3y ago

Yeah, that's what Microsoft (Windows era), Xerox, Kodak, IBM (PC era) and so on also thought back then about their own "monopoly" and brand ;)

munchler 3y ago

ChatGPT is the fastest growing application in history. It had 100 million monthly active users just two months after launch. No one is “waiting” for Google’s version.

fomine3 3y ago

On Enterprise, Microsoft >> Google