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The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all violent crime convictions (2013)
- oatmeal1 3y agoBanishment needs to be brought back as a form of punishment. The 99% cannot let the 1% ruin it for everyone. We need penal colony Australia 2.0.
- paxys 3y ago"Banishment" to where exactly?
- rickreynoldssf 3y agoPrison?
- willcipriano 3y agoConsider "violence island", we find a isolated place and allow the violent to express themselves together.
- orangepurple 3y ago[flagged]
- EdwardDiego 3y agoSo, prison. Just with more obvious weapons.
- willcipriano 3y agoPrison is step one for the violent and most people in prison haven't commited a violent crime. We will make say three honest attempts to reform you but if you can't go around without seriously harming others eventually we have to cut our losses. Is putting the violent among themselves really all that bad?
- 1270018080 3y agoAustralia
- EdwardDiego 3y agoSadly they've changed the rules, and now a conviction isn't a requirement to get in any more.
- netsharc 3y agoAn idea of penal colony is idiotic (sorry to break HN rules), but why not long term prison. I wonder if it could be codified into law. "If you've been responsible for x% of convictions, we will imprison you for increasingly longer periods", or "Top 1% of people when sorted by number of convictions will get a long-ass sentence the next time they get convicted."...
- throwaway290 3y agoWhy idiotic? Are there examples of bad precedents?
- Duwensatzaj 3y agoThis is codified in law. Habitual offender sentence enhancement or three strikes laws.
- EdwardDiego 3y agoThis already happens in sentencing. If you've been convicted of similar offending in the past, the judge is going to sentence you more harshly. And in some countries, if you're a proven perpetual threat, the judge can issue a preventive detention sentence. It has the advantage over the death penalty in that's reversible if a miscarriage of justice occurs.
- rayiner 3y ago[flagged]
- throwaway290 3y agoMars. I think it was sorta that in The Expanse? (Only saw series)
- whartung 3y agoManhattan. Pretty sure I saw a documentary on this once.
- listenallyall 3y agoIf I recall, the way in was to land a glider on the roof of World Trade Center. This would obviously not work today. Overcome that issue and you've got a plan!
- jalk 3y agoAnd we can always send in Snake Plissken in case of issues ;)
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- ggm 3y agoThis was an economic problem as much as punishment. If they really only wanted to reduce the crime, since most transportees were subject to capital punishment (I think the value was absurdly low, some figure less than a pound value in theft attracted a death penalty) they could have just killed them. The point was to extract value from their labours, elsewhere. Also, Australia v1.0 was Carribean/USA v2.0 if the UK/US war hadn't ended transportation to sugar and tobacco plantations they'd have continued supplying Jane Austen with plots (Mansfield park) Subsequently it was political: pre union protosocialist chartists, Irish independence players.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoThe USSR would deport political enemies to small remote cities, then force them to even live outside (5 km?) of those.
- ggm 3y ago"Cancer Ward" is sort-of about the post Khrushchev thaw, and how one political feels conflicted about his exile, and ultimately returns to the settler steppes. Emma Goldman, and around 100 other US left wingers were exiled to the USSR by a young J. Edgar Hoover in the post WW1 context. I don't think it was colonising behaviour however.
- EdwardDiego 3y agoThat's what prison is. Just with less theft of land.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- jimbob45 3y agoin the Swedish population 1973–2004
- Helithumper 3y ago(2013)
- tomlockwood 3y agoOne of the most interesting things to me is the racists that insist that we should examine all demographic factors when trying to identify who the criminals are, but they shy away from the pure fact that violent crime is almost exclusively perpetuated by men. And yet, there are no calls from them for a restriction on male immigration.
- sinoue 3y agoIf you have a criminal record your chances of a legal immigration is drastically reduced.
- nicenewtemp84 3y agoThe guy that shot Kate in SF had been deported 6 times. The guy that shot his neighbors in Texas recently had been deported 4 times. Getting into the US, and living in the US, with whatever history of violence you have is apparently very easy.
- orangepurple 3y agoThere are multiple places along the US Mexican border that are both easy to cross and don't have any sort of fence. Usually the large fence just stops. If you cross in those locations you are immediately asked to wait in line for a bus to be taken to a detention center where you are given an I-94 and an NGO funds your bus ride to New Jersey and New York where you will work under the table for cheap and skip your immigration court hearing. If you DON'T want to get caught, it is harder, since the border patrol knows where the crossing areas are and the terrain is more hostile although less patrolled.
- nicenewtemp84 3y agoSomeone getting deported 6 times probably doesn't go through those easy points you mentioned. I imagine if youve been physically deported by the government, if they find you again at a point like that, you get sent back? Yet if someone can come back in 6 times, I have to assume even the harder routes aren't THAT hard.
- sammywater 3y ago[dead]
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- BMc2020 3y ago[flagged]
- selcuka 3y agoI am not a statistician, but I don't know if this figure is very interesting. The article says that "3.9% had at least one violent conviction", so it is kind of expected that 1% (i.e. 25.6% of that 3.9%) to have multiple convictions. Yeah, it's a bit skewed (63%) but still doesn't sound totally unexpected to me. The Odds Ratio of 2.5 for male offenders is actually more interesting.
- n2d4 3y agoA less misleading title: "25% of all convicted violent offenders are accountable for 63% of all violent convictions", but those numbers aren't big enough to be interesting.
- langsoul-com 3y ago25% causing 63% violent convictions is still pretty crazy
- selcuka 3y agoIs it, though? It's 5 times as many crimes per person on average, and remember we are talking about the top 1/4 of all perpetrators.
- jcranmer 3y agoThe article is mostly about demographic analysis of violent criminals, comparing groups of population by number of violent convictions they have: high (> 10 convictions), medium (3-10), low (1-2), or none. The title here is... not really what the article is about, but it feels like someone tried for a punchier title than "demographic analysis of violent criminals" and missed the mark completely. I'm not sure I can even call it clickbait, since the main reason why the 1% = 63% is brought up at all is a half-baked "why we should care about this demographic analysis" and not really explored any further.
- ASalazarMX 3y agoI also am not an statiscian, but this has the same energy as "1% of the population is accountable for 63% of all major wood works made". Duh, it's called having "carpenters". Carpenters repeteadly do carpentry, criminals repeteadly commit crimes.
- 8ivek 3y ago[dead]
- zoklet-enjoyer 3y agoMost people aren't violent. Or not to the point that they can't control it. The ones who can't control it though, they punch above their weight.
- 1270018080 3y agoSummary for those who don't want to click: "The majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality." So in theory if we purge the bottom 1% of the population every decade or so, there will be at least 63% less crime?
- gjsman-1000 3y agoWell, societies used to do that. It was called the Death Penalty. Not saying it’s a good or bad thing but…
- bilbo0s 3y agoNot really. That purges people through all layers of society. I think the commenter means to purge the literal socioeconomic bottom. Not, for instance, middle class people who kill their spouse or betray the country by spilling secrets. I could be mis-reading the commenter though.
- 93po 3y agothe comments here honestly scare me. you're not going to take the stance that literal state sanctioned murder is a bad idea for people who commit regular crimes?
- gjsman-1000 3y agoI think that your problem is that using the word “murder” implies “unjust.” Funny enough, you actually accept “state-sanctioned murder” right now, like it or not. Any soldier who attempts to invade Ukraine may be shot without a trial or a hearing. If “state-sanctioned murder” is always immoral, Ukraine should let them in peacefully, and appeal to higher authorities to diplomatically come to a solution to the “illegal immigration of young Russian men with guns” problem. I don’t think that’s a good idea and I don’t believe you do either. That’s fine. Invading a country is enough to be threatened with death. Attacking someone’s daughter for the fourth time isn’t.
- beefman 3y agoMy comment when this was last posted, in 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16348644 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16348644
- rayiner 3y agoThis is quite apparent if you have experience with the criminal justice system. When there is a conviction in federal court, the Bureau of Prisons creates a pre-sentence report (PSR) listing the convictions, arrests, etc. These are incredible to read. Not only are there usually prior convictions. But in many cases, there are outstanding arrest warrants for crimes other jurisdictions won’t even bother prosecuting as a result of the conviction.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoIn seattle, people are released with outstanding arrests warrants that the police clearly know about. It’s like, ya, we know this guy already has 3 outstanding warrants for car theft (usually just jumping non-bail), they get caught stealing a car again and are simply released with no or some small bond that is paid by a non-profit.
- harshreality 3y agoWho is funding non-profits to pay high-risk bonds for criminals like car thieves?
- 93po 3y ago*people who are alleged and accused of committing a crime and often didn't
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoYes, but you shouldn’t really be allowed to jump bail multiple times while you are being accused of a new crime every other week.
- rayiner 3y agoAlmost everyone accused of commuting a crime is guilty. It’s good we have a process for being sure. But don’t confuse the process for reality.
- photochemsyn 3y agoThe most obvious solution to this problem is to direct prosecutors and police to focus all their efforts on violent crime prevention. However, this avoids the problems associated with harmful nonviolent crime, such as the fraud scams targeting the elderly and other vulnerable populations that you've probably seen on your social media feeds, messaging apps, etc., let alone things like crypto coin scams and subprime loans and on and on. Of course, eliminating all nonviolent drug abuse issues from the criminal docket and passing them on to the public health infrastructure (see Portugal) might free up resources to deal with both violent crime and property fraud.
- paulpauper 3y agoHowever, this avoids the problems associated with harmful nonviolent crime, such as the fraud scams targeting the elderly and other vulnerable populations that you've probably seen on your social media feeds, messaging apps, etc., let alone things like crypto coin scams and subprime loans and on and on. Yes, this times 2x. Too much focus on social media, like twitter, on violent crime. that is a problem, but non-violent crime, such as fraud, tends to have way more victims per perpetrator. it's not uncommon for a single fraudster, such as credit card theft, id theft, or call center theft, to have many, many victims for considerable sums of money before being caught. The collapse of FTX, for example, had thousands of claimants/victims for combined billions, all perpetrated by one guy and his handful of accomplices.
- logonsrun76 3y ago[flagged]
- EdwardDiego 3y agoAny crime?
- logonsrun76 3y agoYes. I am for spending on social services like food banks etc, to make sure people dont fall into a need to commit crimes for basics. But for any crime, if your still pulling that shit after the age of 30, no lock up, just straight death.
- fatneckbeard 3y agoif they went back before 1973... you know, say, 1939... might have some different statistics about who is responsible for violence in Sweden.
- EdwardDiego 3y agoIt's always poor people, people like to make it about race because then you can blame something other than your society. E.g., in my country, the concept of the "warrior gene" proved popular with people who like to think that the reason Māori are overrepresented in crime statistics is their fault. When they're overrepresented in every negative social measure, especially poverty. Nothing to do with colonisation, land theft and a century of deliberate destruction of their culture and social structure, nope, it's all them. (And Sweden's issues with refugees are Sweden's fault, not that of the refugees)
- neurobama 3y ago[flagged]
- robomc 3y agohigher rates of being the victims of homicide right?
- EdwardDiego 3y ago[flagged]
- nayuki 3y ago[flagged]
- neurobama 3y ago[flagged]
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- swagmoney1606 3y agoHey cool so some questions for you to consider: - Does our society have systemic biases in law enforcement and the judicial system? - Is it really sad that we are unable to, as a society, entertain conversations about genetically modifying our own gene pool to prevent criminal offenses? - Why are nearly half of your comments about racial politics in America? Perhaps you have a bias yourself to examine. - Why are links to twitter considered valid sources. Common. How can you expect people to take you seriously - Are you racist? I'm only asking because you seem racist
- neurobama 3y ago[flagged]
- tomlockwood 3y ago> Do you think the carriers of MAOA-2R want to experience uncontrolled violent aggression? Do you think we should at least offer them a choice? Do you think parents who can afford it will waver when given the choice to offer impulsiveness- and intelligence-enhancing gene therapies to their children? Do you think it fair for those options to be available only to the wealthy? Do you think people with a high propensity for violence (men) should be given gene therapies by their parents to reduce the production of the aggression-causing hormone testosterone?
- neurobama 3y agoAs you surely know given your profile, testosterone is a hormone with many critical functions unrelated to aggression. Lack of sufficient testosterone causes osteoperosis, cognitive problems, fatigue, anemia, memory problems, hot flashes, and many other symptoms in men. It's essential for men's overall health and cannot be clearly disentangled from this role. We do regulate the use of injected testosterone due to risks such as "roid rage" and enlarged heart among others. In the US testosterone is considered a Schedule III federally-controlled substance, i.e. a drug with medical uses that also has potential for abuse: https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/ https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/ If a genetic mutation were known to code for impulsive violence, reduced IQ and little else, the story would be different. We wouldn't keep it around. MAOA-2R is such a gene. I know of no benefits to carrying this mutation versus its 3R or 4R variants. It causes a milder form of a disease called Brunner Syndrome, which confers a reduced IQ as well as increased violent aggression and reduced impulse control: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunner_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunner_syndrome MAOA-2R lies in the same category as cancer-causing variants of BRCA1 or the allele for sickle-cell anemia in Western populations. We should treat it as such. There may also be non-genetic treatments for MAOA deficiency in the future. These should be explored and offered to those who might benefit. In the meantime we must accept reality. This gene, its effects, and its relative prevalence among racial groups (or "ancestral genetic populations" if you prefer) must factor into relevant public policy. Given your comments thus far, I suspect that instead of engaging on the topic at hand you'll try to draw me further into some debate on whether men, seeing as they're so violent, should even be allowed to exist. Suffice it for me to say that the Greater Male Variability Hypothesis makes sense for humanity, and before "gender theory" reared its head we did a fine job keeping men in social spaces and structures where their more-aggressive tendencies were managed and expected.
- givemeethekeys 3y agoSome related wisdom that has been more useful for me: 5% of the people out there are assholes - the unsafe drivers, the "can I speak to the manager" customers, the sociopathic case workers ... they're all in that 5%. You're bound to run into them, and they're bound to make an attempt to spoil your day. Learn to shake your head, shrug it off and go about your day knowing that 5% of all people are assholes.
- anonymouskimmer 3y agoMost important thing: This was a study of the Swedish population! For the US population: Convictions include innocent people who follow advice to plea guilty [1], or who are wrongfully convicted [2], and don't include guilty people who got off, or who were never found [3]. [1] - https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158356619/plea-bargains-criminal-cases-justice https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158356619/plea-bargains-crim... [2] - https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/7/14834454/exoneration-innocence-prison-racism https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/7/14834454/ex... > “African Americans are only 13% of the American population but a majority of innocent defendants wrongfully convicted of crimes and later exonerated,” the researchers write. “They constitute 47% of the 1,900 exonerations listed in the National Registry of Exonerations (as of October 2016), and the great majority of more than 1,800 additional innocent defendants who were framed and convicted of crimes in 15 large-scale police scandals and later cleared in ‘group exonerations.’” [3] - https://www.insider.com/police-dont-solve-most-violent-property-crimes-data-2020-6 https://www.insider.com/police-dont-solve-most-violent-prope... > Federal government data from 2018 show that just 46% of all violent crimes reported to police were "cleared" with an arrest, and 18% of property crimes were cleared. Beyond that, only an estimated 43% of people who were the victims of violent crimes reported the incidents to police. I expect this article to get flagged pretty soon.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- kasperni 3y ago> Most important thing: This was a study of the Swedish population! In 95 % of cases where something like this is posted on HN, it is based on the US population. And no one bats an eye.
- krysp 3y agoWhy would it be flagged? Sweden is a prominent European country, equally valid an example as the USA for such a study.
- anonymouskimmer 3y ago
- Gustomaximus 3y ago[flagged]
- swagmoney1606 3y agoI disagree. We should not be sterilizing people for their crimes. People have a right to decide on the number of children they want to have. Your proposition to select the gene pool of our society, based on one's measure treads in the waters of Eugenics. Not all children born to criminals are a detriment to society. They make up the society you live in. "dregs"
- 93po 3y agoholy shit, you cannot seriously be suggesting forced sterilization
- caseysoftware 3y agoYou're giving a variation of Yuval Noah Harari's "useless eater" or the "useless class" The coming technological bonanza will probably make it feasible to feed and support people even without any effort from their side. But what will keep them occupied and content? One answer might be drugs and computer games. Unnecessary people might spend increasing amounts of time within 3D virtual-reality worlds that would provide them with far more excitement and emotional engagement than the drab reality outside. Yet such a development would deal a mortal blow to the liberal belief in the sacredness of human life and of human experiences. What’s so sacred about useless bums who pass their days devouring artificial experiences? I hope humanity - as a whole - sees value in helping and improving others vs drugging them and letting the wither to nothing. Ref: https://ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/ https://ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/