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> Guess what? The increase in the number of fires correlates with growth in the number of electronic devices sold. That would be odd. Surely a huge number of

> Guess what? The increase in the number of fires correlates with growth in the number of electronic devices sold. That would be odd. Surely a huge number of the devices sold replace prior devices. More interesting would be the number of phones on planes and I would assume that this is mostly flat at this point.

xboxnolifes 3y ago
Presumably, the base sales would be for replacement. You don't need increasing sales to handle replacement rate. I'd expect ~40% more device sales roughly means 40% more devices on planes, which means ~40% more device incidents on planes. Though, that's not to say it's not worrying, just that it's not exactly a surprising increase.
akiselev 3y ago
According to [1] the growth in smart phone market penetration was closer to 15-20% than 40% but definitely non-negligible over that time period. I assume smartphones are significantly likelier to have a battery accident than dumb cellphones due to the higher power requirements. On the other hand, iPads are definitely not that wide spread - that number is also far more strongly correlated. I'll admit I should have been more precise - I actually checked stats for several other types of devices. Given all the new wireless headphones like Airpods, all the growth in vape usage (especially cannabis vapes, which became legal and a TSA nothingburger in many states around that time), and so on, I think the burden of proof is on showing that the increase in fire exceeds the growth in number of devices. Based on personal experience, most vapes are very easy to overheat because the on button sticks out on many devices and it's the kind of thing a smoker would have in carry on. Edit: Just realized I got a separate smart phone for work in that time period. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  A lot of cheap gadgets from a certain large Asian country of dubious quality. E.g. a portable battery obtained from Amazon. It will be a no-name brand and may or may not meet the certifications it actually has printed on its label. We've basically ceded the gadget market to these producers, most of us don't have the money to buy a genuine Apple magsafe battery (or if we do, we feel like it isn't worth it).
  - fomine3 3y ago
    A-certain-Express and A-certain-mazon are top seller.
ben0x539 3y ago
Maybe you have the causation the wrong way around--about every time there is a lithium battery fire on a plane, someone has to buy a new phone, after all.
asdff 3y ago
While cellphones might have plateued, what hasn't I'd imagine are travel batteries. People get terrible ones from amazon or for free from places with a random corporate logo printed on the side. It's probably a lot of junk that's not nearly as scrutinized as a smartphone with qc. With each year more of these end up being gifted by friends and relatives as a cheap and useful gift and put into circulation.
- quitit 3y ago
  Sure smartphones may have plateaued, but that doesn't mean they quality of them is stable either. Low cost foreign brands are popular because they're now good enough for many consumers. But on your point: I have received 3 of the travel batteries you've described as promotional/corporate gifts. They're all junk, and their housing is weak. While I've never used any of them, it wouldn't be such a stretch for me to charge one up as a "back up" battery when I go travelling. (Obviously now I won't.)
- netsharc 3y ago
  I visited China before Covid, on Chinese airlines I flew on, the use of powerbanks was prohibited during flight. It seems they're aware that the chances of a dodgy lithium ion battery in their midst is a lot higher. The airport luggage scanners are also able to detect lithium ion batteries, one time I was sure I didn't have any in my check-in luggage, but the scanner detected an 800mAh camera battery...

xboxnolifes 3y ago

Presumably, the base sales would be for replacement. You don't need increasing sales to handle replacement rate. I'd expect ~40% more device sales roughly means 40% more devices on planes, which means ~40% more device incidents on planes. Though, that's not to say it's not worrying, just that it's not exactly a surprising increase.

akiselev 3y ago

According to [1] the growth in smart phone market penetration was closer to 15-20% than 40% but definitely non-negligible over that time period. I assume smartphones are significantly likelier to have a battery accident than dumb cellphones due to the higher power requirements. On the other hand, iPads are definitely not that wide spread - that number is also far more strongly correlated. I'll admit I should have been more precise - I actually checked stats for several other types of devices. Given all the new wireless headphones like Airpods, all the growth in vape usage (especially cannabis vapes, which became legal and a TSA nothingburger in many states around that time), and so on, I think the burden of proof is on showing that the increase in fire exceeds the growth in number of devices. Based on personal experience, most vapes are very easy to overheat because the on button sticks out on many devices and it's the kind of thing a smoker would have in carry on. Edit: Just realized I got a separate smart phone for work in that time period. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
A lot of cheap gadgets from a certain large Asian country of dubious quality. E.g. a portable battery obtained from Amazon. It will be a no-name brand and may or may not meet the certifications it actually has printed on its label. We've basically ceded the gadget market to these producers, most of us don't have the money to buy a genuine Apple magsafe battery (or if we do, we feel like it isn't worth it).
- fomine3 3y ago
  A-certain-Express and A-certain-mazon are top seller.

ben0x539 3y ago

Maybe you have the causation the wrong way around--about every time there is a lithium battery fire on a plane, someone has to buy a new phone, after all.

asdff 3y ago

While cellphones might have plateued, what hasn't I'd imagine are travel batteries. People get terrible ones from amazon or for free from places with a random corporate logo printed on the side. It's probably a lot of junk that's not nearly as scrutinized as a smartphone with qc. With each year more of these end up being gifted by friends and relatives as a cheap and useful gift and put into circulation.

quitit 3y ago
Sure smartphones may have plateaued, but that doesn't mean they quality of them is stable either. Low cost foreign brands are popular because they're now good enough for many consumers. But on your point: I have received 3 of the travel batteries you've described as promotional/corporate gifts. They're all junk, and their housing is weak. While I've never used any of them, it wouldn't be such a stretch for me to charge one up as a "back up" battery when I go travelling. (Obviously now I won't.)
netsharc 3y ago
I visited China before Covid, on Chinese airlines I flew on, the use of powerbanks was prohibited during flight. It seems they're aware that the chances of a dodgy lithium ion battery in their midst is a lot higher. The airport luggage scanners are also able to detect lithium ion batteries, one time I was sure I didn't have any in my check-in luggage, but the scanner detected an 800mAh camera battery...