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> A CBS News Investigation has discovered similar incidents have been happening much more frequently in the skies over the United States. The FAA verifies the n

> A CBS News Investigation has discovered similar incidents have been happening much more frequently in the skies over the United States. The FAA verifies the number of lithium-Ion battery fires jumped more 42% [sic] in the last five years. I just checked several estimates of iPhone/iPad sales and number of Android users using a cursory Google search. Guess what? The increase in the number of fires correlates with growth in the number of electronic devices sold. CBSNews at 11.

the_mitsuhiko 3y ago
> Guess what? The increase in the number of fires correlates with growth in the number of electronic devices sold. That would be odd. Surely a huge number of the devices sold replace prior devices. More interesting would be the number of phones on planes and I would assume that this is mostly flat at this point.
- xboxnolifes 3y ago
  Presumably, the base sales would be for replacement. You don't need increasing sales to handle replacement rate. I'd expect ~40% more device sales roughly means 40% more devices on planes, which means ~40% more device incidents on planes. Though, that's not to say it's not worrying, just that it's not exactly a surprising increase.
- akiselev 3y ago
  According to [1] the growth in smart phone market penetration was closer to 15-20% than 40% but definitely non-negligible over that time period. I assume smartphones are significantly likelier to have a battery accident than dumb cellphones due to the higher power requirements. On the other hand, iPads are definitely not that wide spread - that number is also far more strongly correlated. I'll admit I should have been more precise - I actually checked stats for several other types of devices. Given all the new wireless headphones like Airpods, all the growth in vape usage (especially cannabis vapes, which became legal and a TSA nothingburger in many states around that time), and so on, I think the burden of proof is on showing that the increase in fire exceeds the growth in number of devices. Based on personal experience, most vapes are very easy to overheat because the on button sticks out on many devices and it's the kind of thing a smoker would have in carry on. Edit: Just realized I got a separate smart phone for work in that time period. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    A lot of cheap gadgets from a certain large Asian country of dubious quality. E.g. a portable battery obtained from Amazon. It will be a no-name brand and may or may not meet the certifications it actually has printed on its label. We've basically ceded the gadget market to these producers, most of us don't have the money to buy a genuine Apple magsafe battery (or if we do, we feel like it isn't worth it).
    - fomine3 3y ago
      A-certain-Express and A-certain-mazon are top seller.
- ben0x539 3y ago
  Maybe you have the causation the wrong way around--about every time there is a lithium battery fire on a plane, someone has to buy a new phone, after all.
- asdff 3y ago
  While cellphones might have plateued, what hasn't I'd imagine are travel batteries. People get terrible ones from amazon or for free from places with a random corporate logo printed on the side. It's probably a lot of junk that's not nearly as scrutinized as a smartphone with qc. With each year more of these end up being gifted by friends and relatives as a cheap and useful gift and put into circulation.
  - quitit 3y ago
    Sure smartphones may have plateaued, but that doesn't mean they quality of them is stable either. Low cost foreign brands are popular because they're now good enough for many consumers. But on your point: I have received 3 of the travel batteries you've described as promotional/corporate gifts. They're all junk, and their housing is weak. While I've never used any of them, it wouldn't be such a stretch for me to charge one up as a "back up" battery when I go travelling. (Obviously now I won't.)
  - netsharc 3y ago
    I visited China before Covid, on Chinese airlines I flew on, the use of powerbanks was prohibited during flight. It seems they're aware that the chances of a dodgy lithium ion battery in their midst is a lot higher. The airport luggage scanners are also able to detect lithium ion batteries, one time I was sure I didn't have any in my check-in luggage, but the scanner detected an 800mAh camera battery...
MilStdJunkie 3y ago
Could that curve also be inversely related to the cost curve for lithium devices in general over the same period? Consumer technology drives cost of X down, X is now decent option for high-performance technology Y, sometimes tech X used in Y causes failures. This, here, if I had to guess, is probably the driver of avionics-related lithium incidents: the avx batteries share an awful lot of the supply chain with consumer batteries, and these batteries have an increasing amount of software way way way down in the assembly where auditors and mx engineers might not see. That software might be driving the cells within a particular environment / load range, and when it gets dinged outside of that range, unpredictable things happen. This is very very very very similar to root cause for an incident investigation I was party to. Military rotorcraft near "hot and high" operation limitations. Many other things were suspected because no one wanted it to be the lithium, but sure 'nuff, the microcontrollers deep down in their little battery brains were not doing what they needed to do, and didn't plug into the bus of the FMS/FMC's BMS (flight management computer's battery management subsystem)
Lammy 3y ago
> CBSNews at 11 Always has been https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh-Z8_6_m4Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh-Z8_6_m4Q

the_mitsuhiko 3y ago

> Guess what? The increase in the number of fires correlates with growth in the number of electronic devices sold. That would be odd. Surely a huge number of the devices sold replace prior devices. More interesting would be the number of phones on planes and I would assume that this is mostly flat at this point.

xboxnolifes 3y ago
Presumably, the base sales would be for replacement. You don't need increasing sales to handle replacement rate. I'd expect ~40% more device sales roughly means 40% more devices on planes, which means ~40% more device incidents on planes. Though, that's not to say it's not worrying, just that it's not exactly a surprising increase.
akiselev 3y ago
According to [1] the growth in smart phone market penetration was closer to 15-20% than 40% but definitely non-negligible over that time period. I assume smartphones are significantly likelier to have a battery accident than dumb cellphones due to the higher power requirements. On the other hand, iPads are definitely not that wide spread - that number is also far more strongly correlated. I'll admit I should have been more precise - I actually checked stats for several other types of devices. Given all the new wireless headphones like Airpods, all the growth in vape usage (especially cannabis vapes, which became legal and a TSA nothingburger in many states around that time), and so on, I think the burden of proof is on showing that the increase in fire exceeds the growth in number of devices. Based on personal experience, most vapes are very easy to overheat because the on button sticks out on many devices and it's the kind of thing a smoker would have in carry on. Edit: Just realized I got a separate smart phone for work in that time period. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  A lot of cheap gadgets from a certain large Asian country of dubious quality. E.g. a portable battery obtained from Amazon. It will be a no-name brand and may or may not meet the certifications it actually has printed on its label. We've basically ceded the gadget market to these producers, most of us don't have the money to buy a genuine Apple magsafe battery (or if we do, we feel like it isn't worth it).
  - fomine3 3y ago
    A-certain-Express and A-certain-mazon are top seller.
ben0x539 3y ago
Maybe you have the causation the wrong way around--about every time there is a lithium battery fire on a plane, someone has to buy a new phone, after all.
asdff 3y ago
While cellphones might have plateued, what hasn't I'd imagine are travel batteries. People get terrible ones from amazon or for free from places with a random corporate logo printed on the side. It's probably a lot of junk that's not nearly as scrutinized as a smartphone with qc. With each year more of these end up being gifted by friends and relatives as a cheap and useful gift and put into circulation.
- quitit 3y ago
  Sure smartphones may have plateaued, but that doesn't mean they quality of them is stable either. Low cost foreign brands are popular because they're now good enough for many consumers. But on your point: I have received 3 of the travel batteries you've described as promotional/corporate gifts. They're all junk, and their housing is weak. While I've never used any of them, it wouldn't be such a stretch for me to charge one up as a "back up" battery when I go travelling. (Obviously now I won't.)
- netsharc 3y ago
  I visited China before Covid, on Chinese airlines I flew on, the use of powerbanks was prohibited during flight. It seems they're aware that the chances of a dodgy lithium ion battery in their midst is a lot higher. The airport luggage scanners are also able to detect lithium ion batteries, one time I was sure I didn't have any in my check-in luggage, but the scanner detected an 800mAh camera battery...

MilStdJunkie 3y ago

Could that curve also be inversely related to the cost curve for lithium devices in general over the same period? Consumer technology drives cost of X down, X is now decent option for high-performance technology Y, sometimes tech X used in Y causes failures. This, here, if I had to guess, is probably the driver of avionics-related lithium incidents: the avx batteries share an awful lot of the supply chain with consumer batteries, and these batteries have an increasing amount of software way way way down in the assembly where auditors and mx engineers might not see. That software might be driving the cells within a particular environment / load range, and when it gets dinged outside of that range, unpredictable things happen. This is very very very very similar to root cause for an incident investigation I was party to. Military rotorcraft near "hot and high" operation limitations. Many other things were suspected because no one wanted it to be the lithium, but sure 'nuff, the microcontrollers deep down in their little battery brains were not doing what they needed to do, and didn't plug into the bus of the FMS/FMC's BMS (flight management computer's battery management subsystem)

Lammy 3y ago

> CBSNews at 11 Always has been https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh-Z8_6_m4Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh-Z8_6_m4Q