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There will be a lot more developers using AI to create software, and fewer software developers writing actual code (those that do will continue to be paid very
by adventured 3y ago
There will be a lot more developers using AI to create software, and fewer software developers writing actual code (those that do will continue to be paid very well). Heavily using AI to create software will become a new layer of development that will broaden the field and a lot of tools will be built just for that purpose, to simplify and dumb it down. The developers not writing code will not be paid nearly so well. To get a job using AI to create software (but not writing code) will require a degree and it'll pay sub six figures most commonly.
A large share of developers making six figures today, that are in the middle ~15-25% group (in terms of skill), will often not be good enough to cut it in the future as the field narrows for writing code, the gravy train for the median and below will end and the pay will drop below six figures (in today's dollar). The entire bottom 1/3 or more of the code writing software field (people which are earning $75k-$85k+ today in the US) will largely be obliterated.
There are around 1.1-1.2 million software developers in the US today, earning roughly a median of $110k-$115k before benefits. Until recent developments, those people were almost all writing code directly (with some standard copy-pasting from Stack of course). At least half of those jobs are going away and quickly. Most will transition over to creating software using AI, but rarely or never writing code directly, as few people write machine code today. AI will similarly propogate a new layer, with fewer writing code directly (and that field may perpetually shrink for decades as it gets squeezed ever tighter by ever better AI approaches).
The number of people directly writing code has or is close to peaking. This is the end of that era.
People in the emerging software world (eg parts of Eastern Europe or Latin America, etc) will have a potent economic ladder largely pulled away from them (this part sucks big time, but nothing can stop what's coming). The opportunities to use AI to create software will still be there for those people (it won't pay nearly as well as writing code does today); it'll become a lot more rare for rich corporations to pay well to write code directly off-shore and the job numbers will dwindle substantially.