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Turkish presidential candidate quits race after release of alleged deepfake
- scandox 3y agoJust so the relevance here is clear. He claims it is a deep fake.
- pantalaimon 3y agoThen why quit the race if he thinks it's fake?
- ksherlock 3y agoHe can't win and a vote for him helps Erdogan. "İnce had a small spike in popularity in the polls in which he peaked at roughly 10% of the overall vote share and more recently dropped down to almost 2% in some polls. While İnce had long seemed unlikely to win, his dwindling vote share was still enough to ensure that the presidential race would go to a runoff, a scenario observers believe could favour Erdoğan."
- olalonde 3y agoThere seems to be an obvious answer...
- bitL 3y agoSoon everything will be deep fake regardless of being deep fake and we all will just have to believe or not.
- scandox 3y agoTo me that's the interest of the story. First sighting for me.
- swores 3y agoYou may find these antics of Elon Musk's lawyers even more interesting then, as posted a few days ago on HN, where they tried to claim (the judge wasn't having any of it) that since any video of Musk could have been deep faked that any video of him shouldn't be accepted by the court. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35862753 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35862753
- WeylandYutani 3y agoIf Trump ever shows up in a video speaking coherently you know it's a fake.
- dang 3y agoThanks - I've turned the alleged sex tape into an alleged deepfake in the title above. It means basically the same thing but with less linkbait. Win.
- jmclnx 3y agoI miss those days here in the US were somekind of sexual impropriety would end someone's political career. Now it seems, at least for one US Political Party, sexual impropriety is a requirement to be considered for higher office.
- FrankyZunim 3y ago[dead]
- slekker 3y agoIf true, the guy just had sex, and someone filmed it, how is that impropriety? Make love not war
- kergonath 3y ago> I miss those days here in the US were somekind of sexual impropriety would end someone's political career. Who cares, as long as sex is consensual? Seriously, what’s wrong with having sex? The fact that a political career can be ended because someone made a fake video is much more troubling. I’m not American, but I am glad we just shrug when we learn about a famous politician’s lover. People are not going to stop fucking. The more we accept that the better, at least then it cannot be used for blackmail or coercion.
- Lutger 3y agoI assumed this referring to the recent Trump case, so it is actually about sexual abuse.
- kergonath 3y agoIn Trump’s case, it was way more than “impropriety”. I took it as referring to the Turkish politician’s case, where no rape, harassment, or assault is credibly alleged. Abuse is a different thing entirely, but affairs are not abuse per se.
- NeuroCoder 3y agoI see where you're coming from but we've had a lot of politicians over the last several years implicated in some pretty bad stuff. From sexual harassment to sex trafficking.
- celim307 3y agoWe gonna need to see that tape
- soared 3y ago> The polling organisation Metropoll predicted late last month that İnce voters would predominantly give their votes to Erdoğan’s AKP, the CHP, with some also going to the far-right Nationalist Movement party and the nationalist IYI (Good party) in the parliamentary race. > The high-profile deployment of deepfake videos has already hit Turkey’s 45-day election cycle, after Erdoğan played an alleged deepfake that claimed to show banned Kurdish militants declaring their support for Kılıçdaroğlu at a pre-election rally last weekend This could be the first election results secured through using deep fakes.
- brian_cloutier 3y agoHilariously, those are the four parties. This sentence claims the voters will predominantly give their votes to one of the other parties.
- riffraff 3y agothey are sort ordered by popularity, but yeah that is a terribly unclear sentence https://twitter.com/ozersencar1/status/1652771126714482689?s=20 https://twitter.com/ozersencar1/status/1652771126714482689?s...
- whimsicalism 3y agoPrety hard to be wrong on a "prediction" like that
- pavlov 3y agoThis improves the chance of Erdogan's main opponent winning the election because opposition votes won't be split across multiple candidates. So despite the weird sex tape business, this is a positive event if you think Turkey should move forward from the authoritarianism and incompetent economic management of the Erdogan era.
- runsWphotons 3y agoOther people are saying his voters are more likely to split towards Erdogan. Which is it?
- makmanalp 3y agoThe likeliest answer is that it's too hard to tell - it's too small of a populace (1-2% or less likely) that's hard to reach in an unbiased way to sample properly for a poll (without it getting expensive, I guess). People are mostly speculating based on his attitudes and positions.
- pavlov 3y agoAll I know is that the bond market thinks it’s a positive sign, and foreign investors aren’t rooting for Erdogan: ”Investors reacted positively to both the new polls and İnce’s withdrawal from the race, pushing the price of Turkey’s international bonds higher. A US dollar-denominated bond maturing in 2030 was trading on Thursday with a yield of 8.54 per cent, down from about 9.2 per cent at the start of the week. ”Bond yields fall when prices rise. The cost of protecting against a default on Turkish debt also declined, with the spread on five-year credit default swaps falling to 490 basis points from above 550 bps earlier this month, according to Bloomberg data. The spread had risen as high as almost 900 bps last summer.” (Financial Times)
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- rayiner 3y agoWhat should be our takeaway from the fact that foreign capitalists don’t like Erdoğan?
- anonfunction 3y agoThis is not Kemal Kilicdaroglu who is the main challenger to Erdoğan, and in fact could help his chances. 1. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-lags-election-rival-closely-watched-poll-2023-05-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-la...
- riffraff 3y agonotice the article claims the opposite > The polling organisation Metropoll predicted late last month that İnce voters would predominantly give their votes to Erdoğan’s AKP, the CHP, with some also going to the far-right Nationalist Movement party and the nationalist IYI (Good party) in the parliamentary race. polls are all over the place for this election, other than telling that it will be contested. https://twitter.com/ozersencar1/status/1652771126714482689?s=20 https://twitter.com/ozersencar1/status/1652771126714482689?s...
- mertd 3y agoI had to read that sentence thrice but I don't think it's in conflict with op. The Guardian is suggesting Ince's votes will be split between the main contenders. Then KK who is in the lead will have a higher chance of clearing 50%.
- n2d4 3y ago> the CHP This is Kilicdaroglu's party. Also remember that there can be a runoff election, either candidate only needs to clear 50%
- ksherlock 3y agoThat may be poorly phrased way of saying, "people will vote for someone else". Erdogan (AKP) polls around 46%. K10u (CHP) polls around 50%. Ince was (2018) previously the CHP candidate in 2018. I don't know anything about Turkey but unless Ogan's platform was "Erdogan isn't doing enough dictating", it's hard to picture his voters all going to AKP.
- pastacacioepepe 3y agoAl Jazeera says the opposite, his voters are closer to Erdoğan.
- clueless 3y agoman... the guardian writer who came up with this sub-title: >> Muharrem İnce pulls out just days from close election race saying alleged sex tape is deepfake
- esafak 3y agoFriend of the subeditor who came up with "6,000 RIM jobs on the line".
- nikolay 3y agoIsn't less fragmented votes a worse situation for Erdogan?
- mertd 3y agoYes. There are two kinds of people, Erdogan voters and "Not Erdogan" voters. If the latter has less too choose from, that's not good for Erdogan.
- nnurmanov 3y agoI wonder if it was a deep fake
- bryanlarsen 3y agoFor context, The Economist calls this the most important election in the world this year. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/04/if-turkey-sacks-its-strongman-democrats-everywhere-should-take-heart https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/04/if-turkey-sacks...
- hammock 3y agoWho controls Turkey/the Bosphorus is critically important this year. The election (and attracted shenanigans) is only a piece of that
- kilroy123 3y agoAs an American who has spent years living in Turkey, I agree with that article, at least from an American or "Western" perspective.
- WeylandYutani 3y agoHilariously the Turkish diaspora living across Europe will be voting for Erdogan.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- crazygringo 3y ago> The former school headteacher and longtime member of the Republican People’s party (CHP) said an alleged sex tape circulating online was a deepfake, using footage taken from “an Israeli porn site”. This seems pretty easy to determine then. Surely someone will recognize the original video, if it came from a publicly available source like that?
- nindalf 3y agoThis seems like an impossible task. I can’t fathom recognising a video and finding the original. And yet, there seem to be people on Reddit capable of doing this. I feel like this candidate need only ask for help from Reddit to recover from this setback … if what he says is true.
- crazygringo 3y agoLike you suggest, impossible for a single person, but almost trivial when you crowdsource it.
- osbulbul 3y agowell, he probably would get less than 5%, so I don't think effect the elections much. but the main candidate KK supporters was blaming that guy about: if they lose elections against erdogan, it will be because of that guy. so now, they can get full responsibility if they lose against erdogan :) but if KK wants to take any responsibility he shouldn't be candidate. he already lost 8 elections against erdogan...
- nurettin 3y agoIt has nothing to do with a sex tape. There was an allegation, but generally speaking it is a strategic move to get more votes for Kılıçdaroğlu
- ayhanfuat 3y agoThere was no "deepfake". There wasn't even a badly photoshopped picture. Someone took a screenshot from a pornographic film where the actor bears a resemblance to him (albeit faintly), and then released it from a Twitter account belonging to an impersonator of an insider. He quit the race for two reasons 1) His predicted vote count was decreasing a lot, he lost a lot of support 2) There was a lot of pressure from the opposition. He knew that if Erdogan won, millions of people would blame him and his political career would be over.
- sokols 3y agoIt seems Kemal Kilicdaroglu (the main opposition candidate) is accusing Russians for the deepfake video. He tweeted in Turkish and Russian https://twitter.com/kilicdarogluk/status/1656705798557384727 https://twitter.com/kilicdarogluk/status/1656705798557384727