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Right, so, for example the long-termist says no need to worry about global warming, it'll just be a blip in the history of our species. Meanwhile, the short-te
by jonnycomputer 3y ago
Right, so, for example the long-termist says no need to worry about global warming, it'll just be a blip in the history of our species.
Meanwhile, the short-termist says, not need to worry about global warming, because it's not that big of a deal right now (they'll figure it later).
I mean, it's pretty obvious that either of these extremes is mistaken. When modeling these sorts of decisions (whether its in RL or in cost/reward analysis), choosing the "right" temporal discounting parameter is crucial. But what that parameter's value should be often comes down to values, morality, philosophy and ethics.
I think the author's fear of longtermism is misplaced, because longtermism is not really manifest anywhere in actual decision making. If anything, it might be used to mask what are actually short-termist motivations for doing short-sighted things (like continuing to rely on fossil-fuels).
- beepbooptheory 3y agoOne does wonder when all these longtermist people tend to be already pretty successful and rich in their own personal short terms.. Not to mention how all these longterm ethical guidelines seem to validate or forgive their lucrative enterprises. Perhaps even in the best of intentions they aren't epistemologically equipped for this kind of thinking!
- corinroyal 3y agoRight? That's because it's not a philosophy but a fig-leaf of a justification for the status quo.
- rob74 3y agoEven as a longtermist, I wouldn't discount global warming so fast. Even if you categorize it as a "non-existential" threat (which I wouldn't be so sure of - you just have to look at Venus to see where global warming can lead to), it took less than what we are currently facing to throw (European) civilization back for about 1000 years when the Roman Empire fell.
- shkkmo 3y ago> it took less than what we are currently facing to throw (European) civilization back for about 1000 years when the Roman Empire fell. The whole "dark ages" trope is generally understood by people who study that period to be a popular misunderstanding.
- jonnycomputer 3y agoyes. that's why we have so many written records from western europe at that time <sarcasm>. it's called dark ages for a reason: the paucity of written records from that period. And there is a reason for that!
- shkkmo 3y agoIt really isn't called that anymore by people who study that period. There is a reason for that. The concept of "dark age" is a cultural myth that is not backed by our modern work on understanding of the period. Perhaps you think you know better, but before you entrench yourself in that belief you would be well served to spend some time reading the works of those who have spent their lives studying that period.
- jonnycomputer 3y agoYou make too many assumptions about what I've read and what I have not read.