4 ms·

If we get fusion power and ai and longevity up in next 10-20 years it's going to be nightmare for ordinary people. Yeah, nightmare, not paradise.

HPsquared 4y ago
Not fully automated luxury space communism?
- euroderf 4y ago
  Still working out the kinks in the requirements spec.
slothtrop 4y ago
A rapid transition would necessitate the need for legislative/policy changes. People aren't going to complacently waddle in "nightmares". Workers already feel priced out of the housing market, just add it to the pile.
- nradov 4y ago
  There will be no rapid transition. Even if Helion's design actually works (and it might not), the plants will be expensive to construct. It would take decades to scale up production.
partiallypro 4y ago
I don't see the fusion argument, but I can see the AI argument at least temporarily making lives worse. What is the argument that fusion power would? It would definitely destabilize countries like Saudi Arabia, but otherwise seems like a win. Even still you have to have petroleum products for most anything and everything.
- markus_zhang 4y ago
  In my model I don't segment people by countries. I segment them by classes -- peasants and aristocrats. So actually, I wouldn't worry about Saudian aristocrats because I'm sure they will prosper as long as they plan accordingly.
throwuwu 4y ago
Wide adoption of longevity tech is necessary to prevent population collapse. AI also doesn’t seem like it’s going to stay cooped up for long, there’s a solid chance that open source projects beat OpenAI to the punch as well if scaling is no longer productive beyond this point
- BlueTemplar 4y ago
  What population collapse ? And why would longevity-extending techniques help ?
  - throwuwu 4y ago
    I’m amazed you haven’t heard of this before now. The entire West has had a fertility rate below replacement for decades and now even China has joined the party and India is going to be there really soon. The way Africa is developing they probably only have a few decades left. If we don’t find a way to turn this around then all of our golden years are going to spent desperately trying to prevent the global economy from collapsing. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_territories_of_India_by_fertility_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_ter...
    - BlueTemplar 4y ago
      I guess I read "population collapsing" overly dramatically - the reduction of the fertility rate is a good thing, as the population size has overshot what is deemed to be sustainable for at least half a century now, so we'll have to reduce it at least by half anyway, one way or another. (And economic collapse has been pretty much baked in at this point, you can thank the boomers for that : the first generation to be aware of these issues, but chose to be selfish instead.) And I still don't see how more longevity would help (aside from helping to kick the can further while our situation worsens even more) - women have a fixed number of gametes they acquire before birth - increasing their longevity is not going to postpone menopause ! Furthermore, so far extra longevity and a better quality of life (and especially education of women, as already theorized by Malthus) has been correlated with a reduction in fertility rate - again, something that is typically seen as a good thing !

HPsquared 4y ago

Not fully automated luxury space communism?

euroderf 4y ago
Still working out the kinks in the requirements spec.

slothtrop 4y ago

A rapid transition would necessitate the need for legislative/policy changes. People aren't going to complacently waddle in "nightmares". Workers already feel priced out of the housing market, just add it to the pile.

nradov 4y ago
There will be no rapid transition. Even if Helion's design actually works (and it might not), the plants will be expensive to construct. It would take decades to scale up production.

partiallypro 4y ago

I don't see the fusion argument, but I can see the AI argument at least temporarily making lives worse. What is the argument that fusion power would? It would definitely destabilize countries like Saudi Arabia, but otherwise seems like a win. Even still you have to have petroleum products for most anything and everything.

markus_zhang 4y ago
In my model I don't segment people by countries. I segment them by classes -- peasants and aristocrats. So actually, I wouldn't worry about Saudian aristocrats because I'm sure they will prosper as long as they plan accordingly.

throwuwu 4y ago

Wide adoption of longevity tech is necessary to prevent population collapse. AI also doesn’t seem like it’s going to stay cooped up for long, there’s a solid chance that open source projects beat OpenAI to the punch as well if scaling is no longer productive beyond this point

BlueTemplar 4y ago
What population collapse ? And why would longevity-extending techniques help ?
- throwuwu 4y ago
  I’m amazed you haven’t heard of this before now. The entire West has had a fertility rate below replacement for decades and now even China has joined the party and India is going to be there really soon. The way Africa is developing they probably only have a few decades left. If we don’t find a way to turn this around then all of our golden years are going to spent desperately trying to prevent the global economy from collapsing. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_territories_of_India_by_fertility_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_ter...
  - BlueTemplar 4y ago
    I guess I read "population collapsing" overly dramatically - the reduction of the fertility rate is a good thing, as the population size has overshot what is deemed to be sustainable for at least half a century now, so we'll have to reduce it at least by half anyway, one way or another. (And economic collapse has been pretty much baked in at this point, you can thank the boomers for that : the first generation to be aware of these issues, but chose to be selfish instead.) And I still don't see how more longevity would help (aside from helping to kick the can further while our situation worsens even more) - women have a fixed number of gametes they acquire before birth - increasing their longevity is not going to postpone menopause ! Furthermore, so far extra longevity and a better quality of life (and especially education of women, as already theorized by Malthus) has been correlated with a reduction in fertility rate - again, something that is typically seen as a good thing !