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We are also changing because of technology. The food we eat, the drugs we get, the lifestyles we have, the air we breath- are all different and make us differe

We are also changing because of technology. The food we eat, the drugs we get, the lifestyles we have, the air we breath- are all different and make us different people than prehistoric humans. For better and for worse.

nradov 4y ago
Given that fentanyl overdoses are now the leading cause of unintentional death for young people in the USA, if that trend continues then we should expect to see higher average levels of opioid resistance evolve over the next few generations. I also expect to see hormonal birth control become less effective over many generations. Those for which birth control fails are likely to have more children. Of course, all of us here will be long dead before any exploration pressure exerted by those drugs becomes apparent at a population level.
- saltcured 4y ago
  It's an amusing thought, but I don't understand how you can apply such a darwinian rulebook here unless you conflate behavioral traits with bio-molecular pathways. Do you think abstinence is part of opioid resistance, or that forgetting to take pills is part of hormone resistance? Most people _not_ dying of fentanyl overdoses are not taking them in the first place, rather than surviving exposures due to sturdier nervous systems. I think a normal interpretation of the phrase "opioid resistance" would mean that their systems can tolerate a higher dosage. Conversely, most birth control failures are thought to be behavioral differences. I.e. whether the user is aware that protection may be absent due to missed doses or other scenarios called out in the instructions. Maybe these two forces will cancel out since one selects for more discipline and the other for less...
  - thaumasiotes 4y ago
    > Do you think abstinence is part of opioid resistance, or that forgetting to take pills is part of hormone resistance? Forgetting to take pills is already part of the measured effectiveness of hormonal birth control. It's included in the official statistics. As it should be, obviously. Not taking pills is the easiest and most important way to resist their effects.
    - saltcured 4y ago
      I know. I wouldn't describe that as evolving resistance to hormonal pills though...
      - thaumasiotes 4y ago
        But that's exactly what it is. Over time, willingness to take the pills, and ability to follow through on intent to take the pills, will be bred out of the population.
        hutzlibu 3y ago
        Only if Pills were the only birth control technic. I rather hear from more and more people, how they have to struggle reproduce at all.
        thaumasiotes 3y ago
        > Only if Pills were the only birth control techni[que]. Absolutely not. As long as they're in use, the pressure is there to make them less effective.
- PeterisP 4y ago
  No, that far overestimates the speed and impact of natural selection. Having <1% of population die before breeding because of some factor (no matter if drug overdoses or something else) is not a sufficiently big pressure to nudge towards an opioid resistance in just a few generations; if there today were some meaningful sub-population with such a resistance, an effect so tiny as the current overdose deaths might result in that resistance spreading over hundreds or thousands of generations; it would take a few more orders of magnitude more overdose deaths to have an effect in just a few generations. Similarly for hormonal birth control, especially if it fails, it has an above-average likelihood of being aborted. I mean, all these things can happen, but not after we're dead, but at the time scale of year 3000+ by which time I'd expect that medical technology would allow us to control these genes directly, making the direction of natural selection irrelevant.

nradov 4y ago

Given that fentanyl overdoses are now the leading cause of unintentional death for young people in the USA, if that trend continues then we should expect to see higher average levels of opioid resistance evolve over the next few generations. I also expect to see hormonal birth control become less effective over many generations. Those for which birth control fails are likely to have more children. Of course, all of us here will be long dead before any exploration pressure exerted by those drugs becomes apparent at a population level.

saltcured 4y ago
It's an amusing thought, but I don't understand how you can apply such a darwinian rulebook here unless you conflate behavioral traits with bio-molecular pathways. Do you think abstinence is part of opioid resistance, or that forgetting to take pills is part of hormone resistance? Most people _not_ dying of fentanyl overdoses are not taking them in the first place, rather than surviving exposures due to sturdier nervous systems. I think a normal interpretation of the phrase "opioid resistance" would mean that their systems can tolerate a higher dosage. Conversely, most birth control failures are thought to be behavioral differences. I.e. whether the user is aware that protection may be absent due to missed doses or other scenarios called out in the instructions. Maybe these two forces will cancel out since one selects for more discipline and the other for less...
- thaumasiotes 4y ago
  > Do you think abstinence is part of opioid resistance, or that forgetting to take pills is part of hormone resistance? Forgetting to take pills is already part of the measured effectiveness of hormonal birth control. It's included in the official statistics. As it should be, obviously. Not taking pills is the easiest and most important way to resist their effects.
  - saltcured 4y ago
    I know. I wouldn't describe that as evolving resistance to hormonal pills though...
    - thaumasiotes 4y ago
      But that's exactly what it is. Over time, willingness to take the pills, and ability to follow through on intent to take the pills, will be bred out of the population.
      - hutzlibu 3y ago
        Only if Pills were the only birth control technic. I rather hear from more and more people, how they have to struggle reproduce at all.
        thaumasiotes 3y ago
        > Only if Pills were the only birth control techni[que]. Absolutely not. As long as they're in use, the pressure is there to make them less effective.
PeterisP 4y ago
No, that far overestimates the speed and impact of natural selection. Having <1% of population die before breeding because of some factor (no matter if drug overdoses or something else) is not a sufficiently big pressure to nudge towards an opioid resistance in just a few generations; if there today were some meaningful sub-population with such a resistance, an effect so tiny as the current overdose deaths might result in that resistance spreading over hundreds or thousands of generations; it would take a few more orders of magnitude more overdose deaths to have an effect in just a few generations. Similarly for hormonal birth control, especially if it fails, it has an above-average likelihood of being aborted. I mean, all these things can happen, but not after we're dead, but at the time scale of year 3000+ by which time I'd expect that medical technology would allow us to control these genes directly, making the direction of natural selection irrelevant.