4 ms·

I have always been a huge proponent of Waymo and obviously Tesla doesn't have something comparable to them now. But if you look at videos of recorded Tesla aut

by ilaksh 4y ago

I have always been a huge proponent of Waymo and obviously Tesla doesn't have something comparable to them now. But if you look at videos of recorded Tesla autopilot drives on Youtube you will see a huge amount of success in terms of getting people to their destination without crashing or killing anyone. And there is constant gradual improvement. If Tesla can get another 2-3% improvement, they may actually be able to launch a robotaxi service. The trick will probably be that you need to have a driver's license and sit in the front seat at first. But after X months they will probably allow sitting in the back, especially for certain vetted trip regions.

gamblor956 4y ago
Tesla's advanced-driving systems (AP and FSD) lead the world in terms of deaths. It's not even close: Tesla has more fatalities than every other advanced-driving system in the world, combined. Even massaging the data in the light most favorable for Tesla, a Tesla is still 3x more likely to be in an accident resulting in injuries than the next worst advanced-driving system, and is more than 50x more likely to be in an accident causing injuries than Toyota's or GM's advanced driving systems. A 2-3% improvement still means that Tesla is the most dangerous advanced driving system on the roads.
- surfpel 4y ago
  Do you have a source for these claims? > Toyota's or GM's advanced driving systems What advanced driving system? Do you mean lane assist with adaptive cruise control? That’s not even remotely comparable.
  - gamblor956 4y ago
    It doesn't matter what advanced driving systems you compare; Tesla is the world's worst in terms of accidents, injuries, and fatalities. For sources: NYT and WaPo both have a series of articles covering this; the NHTSA has released a report documenting over 100 Tesla advanced driving accidents.
    - fallingknife 4y ago
      It's not 100. It's 100/X and if you don't know what X is then your number is worse than useless.
      - gamblor956 4y ago
        It's 19 fatalities in the U.S. and over 273 accidents as of June 2022. The numbers have gone up since then. (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-for-most-reported-driver-assist-crashes-but-officials-warn-report-lacks-context.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-fo...). For comparison, the entire rest of the world's automotive industry has 1 fatality and fewer than 100 accidents, despite having advanced driving systems on more than 3 million vehicles. But nice try, I'm sure Elon would love to hire you hire Tesla's damage control department.
    - surfpel 4y ago
      > It doesn't matter what advanced driving systems you compare It doesn’t matter? Sorry, but this is absurd. There are no other advanced driving systems on any production vehicles that is comparable to what Tesla is doing. This kind of unbacked, vague, hand-wavey, arm-chair cynicism holds society back from making real progress. No thanks.
      - gamblor956 4y ago
        True, Tesla's ADAS systems are unique in crashing into things like big rigs, police cars, parked cars, children, and other things that every other system is able to avoid. Silly pro-Tesla FUD is setting back actual progress in ADAS systems by years.
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
ok_dad 4y ago
> The trick will probably be that you need to have a driver's license and sit in the front seat at first Rental cars? Lame.
danans 4y ago
> If Tesla can get another 2-3% improvement, they may actually be able to launch a robotaxi service. 2-3% improvement in what metric exactly? Disengagement rate? Tesla has a long way to go there in anything but highway driving.[1] YouTube videos are not proof of the safety of an autonomous vehicle. Tesla autopilot is currently very optimistically at level 2.5. 2-3%, even across all metrics won't get them to level 3, much less level 5. I don't blame the people working in their self-driving program. The expectations that have been placed upon them are unreasonable given the constraints on equipment cost and aesthetic design. 1. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169941128097800 https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169941128097800
bagacrap 4y ago
2-3% is not nearly enough. They need to reduce fatal/serious accidents by like 99.9% from where they are.

by ilaksh 4y ago

gamblor956 4y ago

Tesla's advanced-driving systems (AP and FSD) lead the world in terms of deaths. It's not even close: Tesla has more fatalities than every other advanced-driving system in the world, combined. Even massaging the data in the light most favorable for Tesla, a Tesla is still 3x more likely to be in an accident resulting in injuries than the next worst advanced-driving system, and is more than 50x more likely to be in an accident causing injuries than Toyota's or GM's advanced driving systems. A 2-3% improvement still means that Tesla is the most dangerous advanced driving system on the roads.

surfpel 4y ago
Do you have a source for these claims? > Toyota's or GM's advanced driving systems What advanced driving system? Do you mean lane assist with adaptive cruise control? That’s not even remotely comparable.
- gamblor956 4y ago
  It doesn't matter what advanced driving systems you compare; Tesla is the world's worst in terms of accidents, injuries, and fatalities. For sources: NYT and WaPo both have a series of articles covering this; the NHTSA has released a report documenting over 100 Tesla advanced driving accidents.
  - fallingknife 4y ago
    It's not 100. It's 100/X and if you don't know what X is then your number is worse than useless.
    - gamblor956 4y ago
      It's 19 fatalities in the U.S. and over 273 accidents as of June 2022. The numbers have gone up since then. (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-for-most-reported-driver-assist-crashes-but-officials-warn-report-lacks-context.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-fo...). For comparison, the entire rest of the world's automotive industry has 1 fatality and fewer than 100 accidents, despite having advanced driving systems on more than 3 million vehicles. But nice try, I'm sure Elon would love to hire you hire Tesla's damage control department.
  - surfpel 4y ago
    > It doesn't matter what advanced driving systems you compare It doesn’t matter? Sorry, but this is absurd. There are no other advanced driving systems on any production vehicles that is comparable to what Tesla is doing. This kind of unbacked, vague, hand-wavey, arm-chair cynicism holds society back from making real progress. No thanks.
    - gamblor956 4y ago
      True, Tesla's ADAS systems are unique in crashing into things like big rigs, police cars, parked cars, children, and other things that every other system is able to avoid. Silly pro-Tesla FUD is setting back actual progress in ADAS systems by years.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]

ok_dad 4y ago

> The trick will probably be that you need to have a driver's license and sit in the front seat at first Rental cars? Lame.

danans 4y ago

> If Tesla can get another 2-3% improvement, they may actually be able to launch a robotaxi service. 2-3% improvement in what metric exactly? Disengagement rate? Tesla has a long way to go there in anything but highway driving.[1] YouTube videos are not proof of the safety of an autonomous vehicle. Tesla autopilot is currently very optimistically at level 2.5. 2-3%, even across all metrics won't get them to level 3, much less level 5. I don't blame the people working in their self-driving program. The expectations that have been placed upon them are unreasonable given the constraints on equipment cost and aesthetic design. 1. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169941128097800 https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169941128097800

bagacrap 4y ago

2-3% is not nearly enough. They need to reduce fatal/serious accidents by like 99.9% from where they are.