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It seems like (AFAIK) the only major sector cooling off for jobs is tech (and I’m guessing finance/banking, temporarily). Interest rates seem most directly tie

It seems like (AFAIK) the only major sector cooling off for jobs is tech (and I’m guessing finance/banking, temporarily). Interest rates seem most directly tied to easy/hard money, but in the current economy that doesn’t appear to have the same secondary correlation to workforce demand that might usually have been common in the past. However I should note that the linked article doesn’t give a ton of detail on the sector & quality (pay scale) of jobs where there is growth, and that is a big consideration. Shrinking inventory of high paying (tech) jobs would be harder to makeup for if the increases are coming from lower paying $40k-$50k/year jobs.

jjoonathan 3y ago
The link between interest rates and investment seems pretty sound, I think it's more likely that we are just seeing a secular trend of retail still recovering from covid or something.
- lamontcg 3y ago
  There's a lot of lags in the system as well. Like another comment mentioned housing starts have fallen off, but there's still work on ones already being built. The bad businesses/investments that have been propped up by zero interest rate financing also will need to hit their loan maturity dates for them to adjust upwards. It is normally 6-12 months after the Fed stops raising rates that there's a recession. And the big recovery from covid right now is hospitality.
duxup 3y ago
>the only major sector cooling off for jobs is tech Is that happening overall? I know some high profile tech companies have done large layoffs but I suspect most of tech is not them.
- darkwizard42 3y ago
  https://layoffs.fyi/ https://layoffs.fyi/ Based on this, almost 200K tech workers out in 2023 alone with additional 160K gone in 2022. That is a lot of jobs. I'll caveat with saying these are not all in the US and that as a % of the total workforce, tech is not that large so impact on this unemployment number is low. Just pointing out the tech sector is by the numbers/facts available definitely cooling.
  - duxup 3y ago
    Is that just laid off, but not accounting for hired?
- Mountain_Skies 3y ago
  Many recruiters are saying that companies are keeping their pipelines warm and still putting applicants through the process but few are actually hiring. There was also a recent post on LinkedIn about a trucking company in south Alabama that was upset with their recruiter because they were sure the FAANG layoffs meant they could get FAANG engineers to move to Alabama to work for a trucking company at a sub $100k salary. That's n=1 but does make me wonder if many non tech companies are convinced they now have a shot at top talent for bottom tier prices instead of hiring the local university graduates they usually get. If so, eventually the need to actually fill those roles will bring the hiring managers back to reality but it will take time for that to happen. Also if we get into a recession, companies are going to close the open positions and no manager wants to lose headcount so that should spur some of them into action. For now, the tech job market is full of bad information and unrealistic expectations.
ianai 3y ago
Construction fell off long ago (heard numbers like 40%,80% reductions). Which makes sense given construction is kind of the “marginal” effort of real estate - where interest rates would factor in most obviously. Regardless, it’s a decentralized system and inherently complicated. I’m even feeling a little impressed with its resilience shown here.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Have construction jobs really declined yet? I’m still getting outrageous quotes for jobs with long delays in starts, since material isn’t in shortage, I thought it was related to a labor shortage.
  - nostrademons 3y ago
    I think construction starts have fallen off. There's a long construction period and different construction trades are phased at different points, and have different backlogs. My experience is that the parts of construction which typically happen at the beginning of a job (things like financing, land acquisition, architecture, demolition / asbestos removal) are hunting for work, while trades which typically happen at the end (plumbing/electrical/HVAC) are still booked full-up and nearly impossible to get at reasonable prices. This is all consistent with the construction pipeline having dried up, but most of the individual trades having a solid backlog as existing projects complete.
bilsbie 3y ago
Tech did the most over hiring over the past few years.

jjoonathan 3y ago

The link between interest rates and investment seems pretty sound, I think it's more likely that we are just seeing a secular trend of retail still recovering from covid or something.

lamontcg 3y ago
There's a lot of lags in the system as well. Like another comment mentioned housing starts have fallen off, but there's still work on ones already being built. The bad businesses/investments that have been propped up by zero interest rate financing also will need to hit their loan maturity dates for them to adjust upwards. It is normally 6-12 months after the Fed stops raising rates that there's a recession. And the big recovery from covid right now is hospitality.

duxup 3y ago

>the only major sector cooling off for jobs is tech Is that happening overall? I know some high profile tech companies have done large layoffs but I suspect most of tech is not them.

darkwizard42 3y ago
https://layoffs.fyi/ https://layoffs.fyi/ Based on this, almost 200K tech workers out in 2023 alone with additional 160K gone in 2022. That is a lot of jobs. I'll caveat with saying these are not all in the US and that as a % of the total workforce, tech is not that large so impact on this unemployment number is low. Just pointing out the tech sector is by the numbers/facts available definitely cooling.
- duxup 3y ago
  Is that just laid off, but not accounting for hired?
Mountain_Skies 3y ago
Many recruiters are saying that companies are keeping their pipelines warm and still putting applicants through the process but few are actually hiring. There was also a recent post on LinkedIn about a trucking company in south Alabama that was upset with their recruiter because they were sure the FAANG layoffs meant they could get FAANG engineers to move to Alabama to work for a trucking company at a sub $100k salary. That's n=1 but does make me wonder if many non tech companies are convinced they now have a shot at top talent for bottom tier prices instead of hiring the local university graduates they usually get. If so, eventually the need to actually fill those roles will bring the hiring managers back to reality but it will take time for that to happen. Also if we get into a recession, companies are going to close the open positions and no manager wants to lose headcount so that should spur some of them into action. For now, the tech job market is full of bad information and unrealistic expectations.

ianai 3y ago

Construction fell off long ago (heard numbers like 40%,80% reductions). Which makes sense given construction is kind of the “marginal” effort of real estate - where interest rates would factor in most obviously. Regardless, it’s a decentralized system and inherently complicated. I’m even feeling a little impressed with its resilience shown here.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
Have construction jobs really declined yet? I’m still getting outrageous quotes for jobs with long delays in starts, since material isn’t in shortage, I thought it was related to a labor shortage.
- nostrademons 3y ago
  I think construction starts have fallen off. There's a long construction period and different construction trades are phased at different points, and have different backlogs. My experience is that the parts of construction which typically happen at the beginning of a job (things like financing, land acquisition, architecture, demolition / asbestos removal) are hunting for work, while trades which typically happen at the end (plumbing/electrical/HVAC) are still booked full-up and nearly impossible to get at reasonable prices. This is all consistent with the construction pipeline having dried up, but most of the individual trades having a solid backlog as existing projects complete.

bilsbie 3y ago

Tech did the most over hiring over the past few years.