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My belief has been that sure, someone would have created a device like the iPhone, but remembering just how consumer-hostile the phone manufacturers and carrier

My belief has been that sure, someone would have created a device like the iPhone, but remembering just how consumer-hostile the phone manufacturers and carriers were at the time, it would have: * required a carrier-specific App Store * been just one of 20 models sold by the manufacturer * gathered dust in their awful retail stores because the salespeople had no idea how to use it or incentive to sell it Not only did Apple create the device, but they threw their entire weight behind it (and of course had a built-in fan base eager to try it), and committed to its success. Even Google with Android was experimenting with multiple form factors, and would not have demonstrated that level of commitment to a single one.

Tijdreiziger 4y ago
I think you just described Symbian.
adventured 4y ago
I also think it was invaluable that the iPhone app system was heavily secured (app approvals/reviews/restrictions) and or closed in the early years. Consumers were coming from a terrible Windows stretch where viruses plagued the mass PC systems connected to the Internet. They mostly didn't have to worry about that while learning how to best utilize the iPhone in their day to day lives. Apple made several excellent pro-consumer choices that many other companies would not have (including squeezing the telecom companies; which at the time, Apple & Co were nowhere near the size they are now, pushing around big telecom was no small feat).
tjoff 4y ago
That is a very US specific problem though. It would have been easy to make a store for java apps present on other platforms as well. Could even have been a java app itself or a homepage.
rkagerer 4y ago
Don't forget it was preceeded by the iPod, which had a momentum of popularity Apple could build on. As well, the original iPhone was a very different device - in my opinion the platform didn't realize its potential until they opened it up to third party apps and the App Store. I still think Palm squandered their decade headstart and I actually like their UI so much better. What could have been if only they hadn't made such terrible business decisions...
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  3G’s broadband capabilities are what I think made iPhone a no brainer, and AT&T’s unlimited 3G data offer. Streaming music, using google maps, real time accurate location data with GPS, and being able to browse most websites. They had a sufficiently capable product available at just the right time to take advantage of newly rolled out mobile broadband networks, and in the US at least, coupled it with unlimited data so people would not hesitate to extensively use it and cultivate the new space.
  - selectodude 4y ago
    The iPhone was EDGE. It was genuinely pretty awful if not using Wi-Fi. It was just so incredibly far ahead of everything else that 2G internet was an acceptable trade off. AT&T literally built out a weird patchwork of Wi-Fi hotspots to make it more bearable.
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      I know, I was referring to iPhone 3G, which is what I thought the person who responded to me was referring to with: > in my opinion the platform didn't realize its potential until they opened it up to third party apps and the App Store. I do not recall iPhone in 2007 being that huge of a hit. It was obviously very promising, and making waves, but iPhone 3G summer of 2008 was a no brainer even to non techies. I remember there being lines at Apple stores for months.
      - chrisco255 4y ago
        > I do not recall iPhone in 2007 being that huge of a hit. I was working in mobile phone retail in 2007. It was absolutely an enormous hit, and was sold out everywhere. They couldn't ramp up production fast enough. Steve Jobs original iPhone demo was a huge, huge hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQKMoT-6XSg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQKMoT-6XSg Apple already had a huge, established, fanatic base of iPod users by 2007. The presentation went viral, and people couldn't wait to get their hands on it.
      - 4y ago
Spooky23 4y ago
Not necessarily. BlackBerry was a thing, and the Sidekick had traction among kids. Apple hit it out of the park at a time where BlackBerry hit the stagnation phase, the tech was good (but not great) for screens, etc, and Apple was sitting on a software framework that could be adapted phones quickly, there was a struggling carrier willing to do anything to get traction, and had Apple stores full of happy iPod customers.
simonh 4y ago
The thing is nobody was even trying to create a smartphone platform remotely like the iPhone. The standard approach was crippled cut-down mobile OSes with shared memory architectures and proprietary tooling stacks. There's no way to get from Symbian, Windows CE or the Blackberry stack to a workstation class, pre-emptive multi tasking, multi-threaded full stack OS. Even with the iPhone right in front of their eyes it took Microsoft 2 years to even correctly identify the problem. The only reason Android managed to catch up was they happened to have started from a Linux kernel base. The thing is they'd done that for the developer tooling, not because of the platforms capabilities. What they were aiming for was an open source Blackberry clone because that was the dominant platform in market and mind share. Given that it took Microsoft until 2012, 4 years after the launch of the iPhone that's a reasonable absolute minimum lower bound for how long it would have taken. I think it's quite plausible the modern smartphone might not have existed until 2015 without Apple, possibly more. Bear in mind the only reason such powerful ARM cores were developed since 2008 was due to the smartphone arms race.

Tijdreiziger 4y ago

I think you just described Symbian.

adventured 4y ago

I also think it was invaluable that the iPhone app system was heavily secured (app approvals/reviews/restrictions) and or closed in the early years. Consumers were coming from a terrible Windows stretch where viruses plagued the mass PC systems connected to the Internet. They mostly didn't have to worry about that while learning how to best utilize the iPhone in their day to day lives. Apple made several excellent pro-consumer choices that many other companies would not have (including squeezing the telecom companies; which at the time, Apple & Co were nowhere near the size they are now, pushing around big telecom was no small feat).

tjoff 4y ago

That is a very US specific problem though. It would have been easy to make a store for java apps present on other platforms as well. Could even have been a java app itself or a homepage.

rkagerer 4y ago

Don't forget it was preceeded by the iPod, which had a momentum of popularity Apple could build on. As well, the original iPhone was a very different device - in my opinion the platform didn't realize its potential until they opened it up to third party apps and the App Store. I still think Palm squandered their decade headstart and I actually like their UI so much better. What could have been if only they hadn't made such terrible business decisions...

lotsofpulp 4y ago
3G’s broadband capabilities are what I think made iPhone a no brainer, and AT&T’s unlimited 3G data offer. Streaming music, using google maps, real time accurate location data with GPS, and being able to browse most websites. They had a sufficiently capable product available at just the right time to take advantage of newly rolled out mobile broadband networks, and in the US at least, coupled it with unlimited data so people would not hesitate to extensively use it and cultivate the new space.
- selectodude 4y ago
  The iPhone was EDGE. It was genuinely pretty awful if not using Wi-Fi. It was just so incredibly far ahead of everything else that 2G internet was an acceptable trade off. AT&T literally built out a weird patchwork of Wi-Fi hotspots to make it more bearable.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    I know, I was referring to iPhone 3G, which is what I thought the person who responded to me was referring to with: > in my opinion the platform didn't realize its potential until they opened it up to third party apps and the App Store. I do not recall iPhone in 2007 being that huge of a hit. It was obviously very promising, and making waves, but iPhone 3G summer of 2008 was a no brainer even to non techies. I remember there being lines at Apple stores for months.
    - chrisco255 4y ago
      > I do not recall iPhone in 2007 being that huge of a hit. I was working in mobile phone retail in 2007. It was absolutely an enormous hit, and was sold out everywhere. They couldn't ramp up production fast enough. Steve Jobs original iPhone demo was a huge, huge hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQKMoT-6XSg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQKMoT-6XSg Apple already had a huge, established, fanatic base of iPod users by 2007. The presentation went viral, and people couldn't wait to get their hands on it.
    - 4y ago

Spooky23 4y ago

Not necessarily. BlackBerry was a thing, and the Sidekick had traction among kids. Apple hit it out of the park at a time where BlackBerry hit the stagnation phase, the tech was good (but not great) for screens, etc, and Apple was sitting on a software framework that could be adapted phones quickly, there was a struggling carrier willing to do anything to get traction, and had Apple stores full of happy iPod customers.

simonh 4y ago

The thing is nobody was even trying to create a smartphone platform remotely like the iPhone. The standard approach was crippled cut-down mobile OSes with shared memory architectures and proprietary tooling stacks. There's no way to get from Symbian, Windows CE or the Blackberry stack to a workstation class, pre-emptive multi tasking, multi-threaded full stack OS. Even with the iPhone right in front of their eyes it took Microsoft 2 years to even correctly identify the problem. The only reason Android managed to catch up was they happened to have started from a Linux kernel base. The thing is they'd done that for the developer tooling, not because of the platforms capabilities. What they were aiming for was an open source Blackberry clone because that was the dominant platform in market and mind share. Given that it took Microsoft until 2012, 4 years after the launch of the iPhone that's a reasonable absolute minimum lower bound for how long it would have taken. I think it's quite plausible the modern smartphone might not have existed until 2015 without Apple, possibly more. Bear in mind the only reason such powerful ARM cores were developed since 2008 was due to the smartphone arms race.