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Wow, didn’t see anything like that on my newsradar, is China really doing that bad?

by prox 3y ago

pas 3y ago
yes. the covid lockdowns were just a tip of the iceberg, which was of course also happened to be on fire, and everything around it is on fire too. the service-goods shift during COVID and the shiftback after, coupled with the energy and food price shocks due to Russia-Ukraine war, definitely did not help the Chinese economy, that was already faking a higher GDP growth to paper over the cracks. geopolitical tea leaves reading experts point to the aging population of China as a massive problem (again coupled with a lot of factors that make it a worse problem than it would be with a relatively open society, etc.), the limits to efficiency gains from centralization and big infrastructure projects (only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI, only so many big dams make sense, etc), and - again - the cost of maintaining the authoritarian state.
- prox 3y ago
  Interesting times for them, thanks for clarifying!
- endisneigh 3y ago
  Sources for your claims?
  - krageon 3y ago
    The OP speaks of tea leaf reader, which makes this a secondhand reading of tea leaves. Reading tea leaves is essentially writing fiction - is this not how the comment was meant to be read?
  - pas 3y ago
    not primary sources, but I recommend starting with these Peter Zeihan https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4 https://www.noahpinion.blog/archive?sort=search&search=china https://www.noahpinion.blog/archive?sort=search&search=china https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s...
    - hnfong 3y ago
      Wow, a mid-2019 youtube video as evidence of COVID woes and collapse of the Chinese economy in 202X ? Blogs that literally have "opinion" in the title as sources for sensational claims? Try harder. Don't get me wrong, people like you are the reason I can buy Chinese stocks dirt cheap. I'm still waiting for the 50% property price cuts. Try harder please.
- worrycue 3y ago
  > only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI I heard their rail service is in massive debt too. They overbuild it.

Wow, didn’t see anything like that on my newsradar, is China really doing that bad?

by prox 3y ago

Wow, didn’t see anything like that on my newsradar, is China really doing that bad?

pas 3y ago

yes. the covid lockdowns were just a tip of the iceberg, which was of course also happened to be on fire, and everything around it is on fire too. the service-goods shift during COVID and the shiftback after, coupled with the energy and food price shocks due to Russia-Ukraine war, definitely did not help the Chinese economy, that was already faking a higher GDP growth to paper over the cracks. geopolitical tea leaves reading experts point to the aging population of China as a massive problem (again coupled with a lot of factors that make it a worse problem than it would be with a relatively open society, etc.), the limits to efficiency gains from centralization and big infrastructure projects (only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI, only so many big dams make sense, etc), and - again - the cost of maintaining the authoritarian state.

prox 3y ago
Interesting times for them, thanks for clarifying!
endisneigh 3y ago
Sources for your claims?
- krageon 3y ago
  The OP speaks of tea leaf reader, which makes this a secondhand reading of tea leaves. Reading tea leaves is essentially writing fiction - is this not how the comment was meant to be read?
- pas 3y ago
  not primary sources, but I recommend starting with these Peter Zeihan https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4 https://www.noahpinion.blog/archive?sort=search&search=china https://www.noahpinion.blog/archive?sort=search&search=china https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s...
  - hnfong 3y ago
    Wow, a mid-2019 youtube video as evidence of COVID woes and collapse of the Chinese economy in 202X ? Blogs that literally have "opinion" in the title as sources for sensational claims? Try harder. Don't get me wrong, people like you are the reason I can buy Chinese stocks dirt cheap. I'm still waiting for the 50% property price cuts. Try harder please.
worrycue 3y ago
> only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI I heard their rail service is in massive debt too. They overbuild it.