6 ms·

Whenever thinking about density and prices, a worthwhile example to consider is Tokyo. Very dense, but housing prices are very affordable. Part of the reason, a

by yboris 3y ago

Whenever thinking about density and prices, a worthwhile example to consider is Tokyo. Very dense, but housing prices are very affordable. Part of the reason, as I understand, is that Tokyo allows people to keep building (compare to San Francisco).

endisneigh 3y ago
> Very dense, but housing prices are very affordable it's not, though. Tokyo is substantially more expensive than other cities in Japan. Tokyo is also more expensive than American cities when adjusted to per sq/ft rent and PPP. "Tokyo is so cheap" is a meme at this point. Tokyo is cheap the same way having roommates is cheap (roommates are much, much rarer in Tokyo compared to NYC).
- lukasb 3y ago
  But Tokyo has accommodated growth without rent increasing significantly. No US city can say the same (edit: zip1234 proves me wrong below.)
  - endisneigh 3y ago
    Tokyo, and Japan, is a stagnant nation population wise and GDP wise. Not sure why people even bother using it as an example. Look no further than the USD:YEN conversion. funny how no one can cite any other city. if the theory was true there should be dozens of examples.
    - zip1234 3y ago
      Tokyo's population has grown while prices for housing have remained constant. For another example of building more housing keeping prices down, look at Houston. https://fee.org/articles/how-spontaneous-order-keeps-houston-affordable/ https://fee.org/articles/how-spontaneous-order-keeps-houston...
      - endisneigh 3y ago
        the assertion is that building more reduces prices, not merely keeps them the same, though. and it's complicated to say that tokyo population has grown while prices for houses remain constant. what has happened to the other areas? how has the median wage changed?
        crooked-v 3y ago
        > the assertion is that building more reduces prices, not merely keeps them the same, though Building more reduces prices below what they would have been if that building didn't happen.
        endisneigh 3y ago
        > Building more reduces prices below what they would have been if that building didn't happen. seems like moving the goal posts. it's only expensive to begin with due to the density and subsequent amenities enabled by such. why is for example Manhattan more expensive than Brooklyn? it's more dense, should be cheaper accordingly to the density makes cheaper logic. people keep moving the goal posts, but anyone can go on Redfin and figure this out themselves. look at the median rent, find the median wage, find the median sq footage. calculate the adjusted wage by sq/ft. it's not higher in dense areas.
        crooked-v 3y ago
        > why is for example Manhattan more expensive than Brooklyn? it's more dense, should be cheaper accordingly to the density makes cheaper logic. It's more expensive because many more people want to live there than want to live in Brooklyn, outstripping the available housing to a greater degree. It's basic supply and demand.
  - tivert 3y ago
    > But Tokyo has accommodated growth without rent increasing significantly. No US city can say the same. Isn't Tokyo famous for stuff like tiny, tiny microapartments? Are the rent increases comparisons you allude to measured per apartment or per square foot?
- colinsane 3y ago
  “Tokyo is cheap” is a new phrase to my ears. i’m more familiar with the meme of people posting 150sqft closets and saying “i wouldn’t live anywhere else, even if the rent was half the $2000/mo i pay now”. truth looks to be somewhere in the middle, but interesting how the polar opposites can exist so close to each other.
  - cammikebrown 3y ago
    The average apartment in Tokyo is small, but under $1,000 USD/month.
    - nomel 3y ago
      what's the average income? Affordable isn't $.
      - cammikebrown 3y ago
        $53.5k. You can definitely afford under $1000 with that. (My income is less than that and I pay more than that currently.) https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/ https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/
- atdrummond 3y ago
  Really? I’ve lived in the Bay Area and Tokyo. Right now I can find a 535 sq ft bedroom in Tokyo for $1170 (https://realestate.co.jp/en/rent/view/929199 https://realestate.co.jp/en/rent/view/929199). There are plenty of units like this - and even more (slightly bigger, nicer amenities, etc) to three times more. And this isn’t even a “cheap” part of the city. Even at that higher end of the Tokyo price range, there’s nothing like that for solo renters in SF or Oakland. You’ll have to go a one hour drive out of either city. Even then, there’s a good chance you’d end up in a room with shared amenities rather than a full apartment. And let’s not forget that Tokyo actually has real transit. My first rental there was a luxury 4 bedroom home about 45 minutes from my office by train - I paid $1200 a month. It’d be even less today.
  - endisneigh 3y ago
    you need to adjust for local income. the apartment you posted would be massively unaffordable for a local tokyo resident with the median wage.
    - atdrummond 3y ago
      The median resident isn’t buying a place in Shinjuku - see my edited part of the comment. Tokyo’s transit enables cheaper living than is available in the bay.
      - endisneigh 3y ago
        The bay isn't remotely reasonable comparison. NYC is much cheaper than Tokyo, adjusted for living quarter size and median wage. I'm not talking about affordances you get by living in certain areas - simply the size of the place and the price, relative to localized income. Tokyo simply is not cheaper, period. It only seems cheaper because rich Americans keep using their income and comparing it to the adjusted USD:YEN price. The Yen is trash compared to the dollar, so it seems affordable to an American. But it's not America. I feel like many commenters have not been to Tokyo. Some of the apartments are literally the size of a single bedroom in an average New York City apartment.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
somenameforme 3y ago
People generally don't seem to be aware of Japan's economic state. Here are some relevant data: Graph of Japanese Stock Market: https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical... Graph of Japan's Population: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/population https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/population Graph of Tokyo's Population: https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/21671/tokyo/population https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/21671/tokyo/population Average Salary in Tokyo: https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/ https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/ (outdated exchange rate, yen has been collapsing) In a nutshell: The Japanese economy was larger 33 years ago than it is today, the Japanese population is declining by the millions with even Tokyo now also seeing increasingly declining population, and the average salary in Tokyo is about $45,000. This can absolutely lead to low housing costs, but is probably not a model you want to emulate.
- joshlemer 3y ago
  I personally don't think it's such a bad thing if our population stays stable rather than increasing, even small decline I don't think is such a bad thing.
  - atoav 3y ago
    In an economy based on growth that means however, investors still expect more money each year. And that money has to come from somewhere. So either your population grows, so the more work is distributed better on more shoulders or you try to educate them better to increase the quality of the corporations etc. But the fact that our economies expect constant growth has consequences for everything else
  - midasuni 3y ago
    With boomers retiring the numver of non working people with a lot of income increasing relative to the number of people who do work. This is ripe for long term inflation - especially in areas old people spend in, and that’s before the added tax drain of social security.
  - 3y ago

by yboris 3y ago

endisneigh 3y ago

> Very dense, but housing prices are very affordable it's not, though. Tokyo is substantially more expensive than other cities in Japan. Tokyo is also more expensive than American cities when adjusted to per sq/ft rent and PPP. "Tokyo is so cheap" is a meme at this point. Tokyo is cheap the same way having roommates is cheap (roommates are much, much rarer in Tokyo compared to NYC).

lukasb 3y ago
But Tokyo has accommodated growth without rent increasing significantly. No US city can say the same (edit: zip1234 proves me wrong below.)
- endisneigh 3y ago
  Tokyo, and Japan, is a stagnant nation population wise and GDP wise. Not sure why people even bother using it as an example. Look no further than the USD:YEN conversion. funny how no one can cite any other city. if the theory was true there should be dozens of examples.
  - zip1234 3y ago
    Tokyo's population has grown while prices for housing have remained constant. For another example of building more housing keeping prices down, look at Houston. https://fee.org/articles/how-spontaneous-order-keeps-houston-affordable/ https://fee.org/articles/how-spontaneous-order-keeps-houston...
    - endisneigh 3y ago
      the assertion is that building more reduces prices, not merely keeps them the same, though. and it's complicated to say that tokyo population has grown while prices for houses remain constant. what has happened to the other areas? how has the median wage changed?
      - crooked-v 3y ago
        > the assertion is that building more reduces prices, not merely keeps them the same, though Building more reduces prices below what they would have been if that building didn't happen.
        endisneigh 3y ago
        > Building more reduces prices below what they would have been if that building didn't happen. seems like moving the goal posts. it's only expensive to begin with due to the density and subsequent amenities enabled by such. why is for example Manhattan more expensive than Brooklyn? it's more dense, should be cheaper accordingly to the density makes cheaper logic. people keep moving the goal posts, but anyone can go on Redfin and figure this out themselves. look at the median rent, find the median wage, find the median sq footage. calculate the adjusted wage by sq/ft. it's not higher in dense areas.
        crooked-v 3y ago
        > why is for example Manhattan more expensive than Brooklyn? it's more dense, should be cheaper accordingly to the density makes cheaper logic. It's more expensive because many more people want to live there than want to live in Brooklyn, outstripping the available housing to a greater degree. It's basic supply and demand.
- tivert 3y ago
  > But Tokyo has accommodated growth without rent increasing significantly. No US city can say the same. Isn't Tokyo famous for stuff like tiny, tiny microapartments? Are the rent increases comparisons you allude to measured per apartment or per square foot?
colinsane 3y ago
“Tokyo is cheap” is a new phrase to my ears. i’m more familiar with the meme of people posting 150sqft closets and saying “i wouldn’t live anywhere else, even if the rent was half the $2000/mo i pay now”. truth looks to be somewhere in the middle, but interesting how the polar opposites can exist so close to each other.
- cammikebrown 3y ago
  The average apartment in Tokyo is small, but under $1,000 USD/month.
  - nomel 3y ago
    what's the average income? Affordable isn't $.
    - cammikebrown 3y ago
      $53.5k. You can definitely afford under $1000 with that. (My income is less than that and I pay more than that currently.) https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/ https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/
atdrummond 3y ago
Really? I’ve lived in the Bay Area and Tokyo. Right now I can find a 535 sq ft bedroom in Tokyo for $1170 (https://realestate.co.jp/en/rent/view/929199 https://realestate.co.jp/en/rent/view/929199). There are plenty of units like this - and even more (slightly bigger, nicer amenities, etc) to three times more. And this isn’t even a “cheap” part of the city. Even at that higher end of the Tokyo price range, there’s nothing like that for solo renters in SF or Oakland. You’ll have to go a one hour drive out of either city. Even then, there’s a good chance you’d end up in a room with shared amenities rather than a full apartment. And let’s not forget that Tokyo actually has real transit. My first rental there was a luxury 4 bedroom home about 45 minutes from my office by train - I paid $1200 a month. It’d be even less today.
- endisneigh 3y ago
  you need to adjust for local income. the apartment you posted would be massively unaffordable for a local tokyo resident with the median wage.
  - atdrummond 3y ago
    The median resident isn’t buying a place in Shinjuku - see my edited part of the comment. Tokyo’s transit enables cheaper living than is available in the bay.
    - endisneigh 3y ago
      The bay isn't remotely reasonable comparison. NYC is much cheaper than Tokyo, adjusted for living quarter size and median wage. I'm not talking about affordances you get by living in certain areas - simply the size of the place and the price, relative to localized income. Tokyo simply is not cheaper, period. It only seems cheaper because rich Americans keep using their income and comparing it to the adjusted USD:YEN price. The Yen is trash compared to the dollar, so it seems affordable to an American. But it's not America. I feel like many commenters have not been to Tokyo. Some of the apartments are literally the size of a single bedroom in an average New York City apartment.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

somenameforme 3y ago

People generally don't seem to be aware of Japan's economic state. Here are some relevant data: Graph of Japanese Stock Market: https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical... Graph of Japan's Population: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/population https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/population Graph of Tokyo's Population: https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/21671/tokyo/population https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/21671/tokyo/population Average Salary in Tokyo: https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/ https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-japan/ (outdated exchange rate, yen has been collapsing) In a nutshell: The Japanese economy was larger 33 years ago than it is today, the Japanese population is declining by the millions with even Tokyo now also seeing increasingly declining population, and the average salary in Tokyo is about $45,000. This can absolutely lead to low housing costs, but is probably not a model you want to emulate.

joshlemer 3y ago
I personally don't think it's such a bad thing if our population stays stable rather than increasing, even small decline I don't think is such a bad thing.
- atoav 3y ago
  In an economy based on growth that means however, investors still expect more money each year. And that money has to come from somewhere. So either your population grows, so the more work is distributed better on more shoulders or you try to educate them better to increase the quality of the corporations etc. But the fact that our economies expect constant growth has consequences for everything else
- midasuni 3y ago
  With boomers retiring the numver of non working people with a lot of income increasing relative to the number of people who do work. This is ripe for long term inflation - especially in areas old people spend in, and that’s before the added tax drain of social security.
- 3y ago