Maybe, maybe not? It depends on what improved GPT-4 relative to 3. If it was adding more data, then we'd expect progress to speed up in the short-term and then

Maybe, maybe not? It depends on what improved GPT-4 relative to 3. If it was adding more data, then we'd expect progress to speed up in the short-term and then come to a screeching halt as we run out of text. If it was algorithmic/model improvements then it could be much quicker to improve or much slower. I think the big problem is that nobody (except Open-AI) knows what GPT-4 does and how it does it, so it's hard to predict. I'm generally a fan of a naive model given the uncertainties around this, hence my prediction of three years.