5 ms·

why are TSMC's days numbered?

blacksmith_tb 4y ago
Not the OP, but I imagine there's at least some market watchers who assume the PRC will gobble up Taiwan sooner rather than later. Intel seems like a poor alternative, but if it's all you had...
- epolanski 4y ago
  Speculating that something may happen is different from having such certainties. Taiwan and China are nowhere near the Ukrainian situation. Also TSMC is planning to open outside Taiwan soon.
  - brucethemoose2 4y ago
    > Also TSMC is planning to open outside Taiwan soon. This is true, but most of their capacity is in Taiwan, and will remain in Taiwan for some time.
- Spooky23 4y ago
  It’s in nobody’s interest to start a war over this. It’s all fluff. There’s a cottage industry of war hawks who sell various narratives about China to rile up the mostly republican base. My favorite is Gordon Chang, who a few years ago was predicting that the Chinese communist party and state was going to collapse and start some sort of war. Now the Chinese are beating the USA in space and are about to invade Taiwan. It’s all stupid. Semiconductors are a high risk capital intensive business. Just like Verizon bet and lost on mmWave 5G and is getting its butt kicked by TMobile, Intel bet on 450mm wafers and lost. Strategically, they’re in a recoverable position. TSMC is at capacity and needs to invest billions and execute to maintain their lead. Cloud is challenging their margins, but their relationship with Microsoft gives them leverage.
  - reducesuffering 4y ago
    People said this about Russia for the longest time and were wrong. Dmitri Alperovitch predicted the Russian Invasion 3 months before it happened and he’s predicting a hearty chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in 2025 - 2030. If you don’t have similar credo about past events like that, then I wouldn’t trust your opinion over his.
    - Spooky23 4y ago
      Russia isn’t China. People may have disagreed over the timing, but the Russians already seized crimea and interfered with US elections to advance their Ukraine policy. Russia is a declining petrostate. China is the world’s factory. Antagonizing their biggest trading partners won’t be a winning strategy for many years, if ever.
      - reducesuffering 4y ago
        > People may have disagreed over the timing It's very revisionist to act like the prevailing wisdom was that a full invasion was coming. Please cite your assessment or prediction about the upcoming Russian invasion at least a month before it happened, since it was so clear. For example: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 Otherwise, you have no geopolitical cred
        Spooky23 4y ago
        We’re talking on a message board. Nobody here has “geopolitical cred” You can be pedantic about Nostradamus like predictions. But if you were surprised that Russia invaded Ukraine, your threshold for surprise is low. After all, they annexed a big part of the country a few years ago.
        reducesuffering 4y ago
        We'll be saying the same thing in 10 years. > But if you were surprised that Russia [China] invaded Ukraine [Taiwan], your threshold for surprise is low. After all, they claim it's their territory, won't disavow claiming it through force, dissuade other countries from even visiting it, regularly perform military drills around it, and annexed Tibet while people today were still alive.
- tomohelix 4y ago
  A lot of thing, China's economy and the country itself, might be numbered if they decide to invade Taiwan. This isn't like Ukraine where there was an implicit agreement that nobody will send actual troops into Ukraine to fight its war. If Taiwan is invaded, the US will send its own troops. And if the US is involved, the EU is likely involved too. China is big but not enough to challenge the US militarily. Not yet. It would take an absolute madman to make China go to war just for Taiwan.
  - another2another 4y ago
    The problem with China is that it's been building its army up steadily for quite a while, and it's quite large, but also probably expensive. And, if you've got a big army (and navy), just sitting around doing nothing.... what are you going to do with it? The army themselves must be itching for a fight, just to justify their existence. Maybe that's why they're trying to hot things up in Bhutan.
brucethemoose2 4y ago
What blacksmith said. Reunification with Taiwan is part of Xi's mandate... and he is 69 years old: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-pledges-reunification-with-taiwan-partys-birthday-2021-07-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-pledges-reunif... But even if Taiwan isn't invaded, TSMC could still be compromised. For instance, they could suffer from a severe peacetime cyberattack, physical sabotage, a blockade of the island, or even get damaged in a failed invasion attempt or a brief exchange of fire. They are a high profile target.
- 0xy 4y ago
  Biden has let slip multiple times that the US will fully defend Taiwan interests in the region. China can't just knock over Taiwan because Taiwan is essentially the US. They're trained, supplied and fully backed by a much larger nuclear power. Chinese military cannot go up against the US, and Xi knows it would be sure destruction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
  - brucethemoose2 4y ago
    I am not that gung ho/confident about U.S. protection, and I'm not even sure China is that aggressive, but it doesn't really matter because the liklihood of TSMC being damaged through subversive action is much higher. China very explicity wants to coerce Taiwan before "resorting" to invasion, and damaging their international trade is one step towards that goal.
  - ihatepython 4y ago
    > Chinese military cannot go up against the US, and Xi knows it would be sure destruction. The US will lose, especially if China times it to coincide with the war with Russia, and North Korea invading the South.
    - 4gotunameagain 4y ago
      The US would drag all of the rest of the civilised world to war with it, as they kinda did with the proxy war of Ukraine. The US+allies could probably take down China+allies. But if this happens, we are all, gloriously fucked. I wish countries in macro level geopolitics did not behave like prepubescent boys trying to share the same toy

Not the OP, but I imagine there's at least some market watchers who assume the PRC will gobble up Taiwan sooner rather than later. Intel seems like a poor alternative, but if it's all you had...

epolanski 4y ago
Speculating that something may happen is different from having such certainties. Taiwan and China are nowhere near the Ukrainian situation. Also TSMC is planning to open outside Taiwan soon.
- brucethemoose2 4y ago
  > Also TSMC is planning to open outside Taiwan soon. This is true, but most of their capacity is in Taiwan, and will remain in Taiwan for some time.
Spooky23 4y ago
It’s in nobody’s interest to start a war over this. It’s all fluff. There’s a cottage industry of war hawks who sell various narratives about China to rile up the mostly republican base. My favorite is Gordon Chang, who a few years ago was predicting that the Chinese communist party and state was going to collapse and start some sort of war. Now the Chinese are beating the USA in space and are about to invade Taiwan. It’s all stupid. Semiconductors are a high risk capital intensive business. Just like Verizon bet and lost on mmWave 5G and is getting its butt kicked by TMobile, Intel bet on 450mm wafers and lost. Strategically, they’re in a recoverable position. TSMC is at capacity and needs to invest billions and execute to maintain their lead. Cloud is challenging their margins, but their relationship with Microsoft gives them leverage.
- reducesuffering 4y ago
  People said this about Russia for the longest time and were wrong. Dmitri Alperovitch predicted the Russian Invasion 3 months before it happened and he’s predicting a hearty chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in 2025 - 2030. If you don’t have similar credo about past events like that, then I wouldn’t trust your opinion over his.
  - Spooky23 4y ago
    Russia isn’t China. People may have disagreed over the timing, but the Russians already seized crimea and interfered with US elections to advance their Ukraine policy. Russia is a declining petrostate. China is the world’s factory. Antagonizing their biggest trading partners won’t be a winning strategy for many years, if ever.
    - reducesuffering 4y ago
      > People may have disagreed over the timing It's very revisionist to act like the prevailing wisdom was that a full invasion was coming. Please cite your assessment or prediction about the upcoming Russian invasion at least a month before it happened, since it was so clear. For example: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 Otherwise, you have no geopolitical cred
      - Spooky23 4y ago
        We’re talking on a message board. Nobody here has “geopolitical cred” You can be pedantic about Nostradamus like predictions. But if you were surprised that Russia invaded Ukraine, your threshold for surprise is low. After all, they annexed a big part of the country a few years ago.
        reducesuffering 4y ago
        We'll be saying the same thing in 10 years. > But if you were surprised that Russia [China] invaded Ukraine [Taiwan], your threshold for surprise is low. After all, they claim it's their territory, won't disavow claiming it through force, dissuade other countries from even visiting it, regularly perform military drills around it, and annexed Tibet while people today were still alive.
tomohelix 4y ago
A lot of thing, China's economy and the country itself, might be numbered if they decide to invade Taiwan. This isn't like Ukraine where there was an implicit agreement that nobody will send actual troops into Ukraine to fight its war. If Taiwan is invaded, the US will send its own troops. And if the US is involved, the EU is likely involved too. China is big but not enough to challenge the US militarily. Not yet. It would take an absolute madman to make China go to war just for Taiwan.
- another2another 4y ago
  The problem with China is that it's been building its army up steadily for quite a while, and it's quite large, but also probably expensive. And, if you've got a big army (and navy), just sitting around doing nothing.... what are you going to do with it? The army themselves must be itching for a fight, just to justify their existence. Maybe that's why they're trying to hot things up in Bhutan.

brucethemoose2 4y ago

What blacksmith said. Reunification with Taiwan is part of Xi's mandate... and he is 69 years old: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-pledges-reunification-with-taiwan-partys-birthday-2021-07-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-pledges-reunif... But even if Taiwan isn't invaded, TSMC could still be compromised. For instance, they could suffer from a severe peacetime cyberattack, physical sabotage, a blockade of the island, or even get damaged in a failed invasion attempt or a brief exchange of fire. They are a high profile target.

0xy 4y ago
Biden has let slip multiple times that the US will fully defend Taiwan interests in the region. China can't just knock over Taiwan because Taiwan is essentially the US. They're trained, supplied and fully backed by a much larger nuclear power. Chinese military cannot go up against the US, and Xi knows it would be sure destruction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
- brucethemoose2 4y ago
  I am not that gung ho/confident about U.S. protection, and I'm not even sure China is that aggressive, but it doesn't really matter because the liklihood of TSMC being damaged through subversive action is much higher. China very explicity wants to coerce Taiwan before "resorting" to invasion, and damaging their international trade is one step towards that goal.
- ihatepython 4y ago
  > Chinese military cannot go up against the US, and Xi knows it would be sure destruction. The US will lose, especially if China times it to coincide with the war with Russia, and North Korea invading the South.
  - 4gotunameagain 4y ago
    The US would drag all of the rest of the civilised world to war with it, as they kinda did with the proxy war of Ukraine. The US+allies could probably take down China+allies. But if this happens, we are all, gloriously fucked. I wish countries in macro level geopolitics did not behave like prepubescent boys trying to share the same toy