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Maybe I am misinterpreting the tone, but this is an incongruous belief. Nothing about a chaotic system precludes a trend in that system. I think it is quite o

by achr2 3y ago

Maybe I am misinterpreting the tone, but this is an incongruous belief. Nothing about a chaotic system precludes a *trend* in that system. I think it is quite objectively clear that while extremely chaotic, the trend of recent human impact on the earth is an equally extreme destruction of natural habitats.

throwaway173738 3y ago
Yeah chaotic systems are merely characterized by their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions for a particular long term outcome. All systems trend when modeled mathematically. It’s just difficult to know where a chaotic system will be at any point in time because of how hard it is to establish initial conditions. One way you can play with a real chaotic system is to build one of the circuits in jc sprott’s papers and vary the control variable. You’ll see at some values of your control an “orderly” progression of the response variables, and at others a difficult to predict progression. https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=ErwaemIAAAAJ&citation_for_view=ErwaemIAAAAJ:2osOgNQ5qMEC https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&h...
tsunamifury 3y ago
Trends are chaotic too and hit inflection points that are hard to predict. He goes deep on the pred/prey model from Isle Royal where trends go for a bit then inflect. Tons of wolves then tons of elk then low populations of both then high of both. There are trends but no hyper static state or relationship even.
miroljub 3y ago
Our planet is both chaotic and stable, depending on the timescale we are looking at. Chaotic on the long timescale, but pretty stable given the much shorter timescale of known human history.
- nradov 3y ago
  If you believe that then I think you haven't spent much time out in nature. Some wild species populations boom and crash in chaotic ways even in areas that haven't been impacted much by humans. Nature is far from stable on any time scale longer than a year.
  - HPsquared 3y ago
    Doesn't it all average out over time though? I suppose things like erosion do cause permanent changes but other than that?
  - lproven 3y ago
    ISTM like you haven't fully grasped the fractal nature of, well, nature. At one scale, it's chaos. 1 or 2 scales up or down (in time or in space) it's stable. It's like that all the way up and all the way down. Oh, and not only are the scale levels not just spacial or temporal but both, but the number of levels is itself non integer. But the point is that even chaotic systems often display order if you find the right place or perspective to stand and look. You can't say "it's not stable". Not ever. Rocks aren't stable over aeons. Galaxies aren't. Protons aren't if you wait long enough. But it is often possible to measure the rates of change and of complexity and say, look, given greater levels of complexity, then lower rates of change will probably hold... Even given a famine or a plague that's currently devastating one region.
rektide 3y ago
AWOBMOLG was more about mythologization of tech as oracular & all powerful, leading us to think that we can handle anything. Techno-utopianism. A lot of the series is about the belief that we could, with technologies predictive powers & neoliberal market ethos... And how it doesn't pan out. We have "New Economies" greatly bloom in the world. And about how instead we got the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We thought we were taming market complexity (via in part neoliberalism weirdly) but turns out not so much. We have the rise of cybernetic thinking & Limits of Growth (& it's limitations in assuming we cannot change human behavior). "Sure everything is trending towards shit, but we're humans, we can definitely go create some genius machine that will fix this, right" Curtis rarely comes out and makes broad conclusions, but the watcher is definitely left with impression of absurd hubris & folly & chaos-triumphant, in AWOBMOLG and in much else of Curtis's excellent excellent catalog of contemporary history documentaries.
- denton-scratch 3y ago
  > Curtis rarely comes out and makes broad conclusions Indeed; his films (and their titles!) are oblique and suggestive. They are about politics, but it's very hard to discern his own political posture clearly. I wonder what kind of a man he would be to meet.
  - rektide 3y ago
    He's still a bit reserved somewhat in interviews but they are fun to watch. Just my take, but I think the core concept is really that there is no one actually genuinely leading, no one left with a compelling believable vision in any position of power, and that total power vacuum keeps letting mad scenes play out across history. The need for hope, to show a willingness to go in authentically good direction at scale, is a fuel that powers the public spirit, and we keep suffering long eras where it's simply unavailable.
nradov 3y ago
Humans have destroyed natural habitats, but at the same time some species have come to thrive in the unnatural habitats we have created. Think of pigeons, rats, cockroaches, coyotes, racoons, etc. Life expands to fill every niche where enough energy is available for survival.

Maybe I am misinterpreting the tone, but this is an incongruous belief. Nothing about a chaotic system precludes a *trend* in that system. I think it is quite o

by achr2 3y ago

throwaway173738 3y ago

Yeah chaotic systems are merely characterized by their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions for a particular long term outcome. All systems trend when modeled mathematically. It’s just difficult to know where a chaotic system will be at any point in time because of how hard it is to establish initial conditions. One way you can play with a real chaotic system is to build one of the circuits in jc sprott’s papers and vary the control variable. You’ll see at some values of your control an “orderly” progression of the response variables, and at others a difficult to predict progression. https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=ErwaemIAAAAJ&citation_for_view=ErwaemIAAAAJ:2osOgNQ5qMEC https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&h...

tsunamifury 3y ago

Trends are chaotic too and hit inflection points that are hard to predict. He goes deep on the pred/prey model from Isle Royal where trends go for a bit then inflect. Tons of wolves then tons of elk then low populations of both then high of both. There are trends but no hyper static state or relationship even.

miroljub 3y ago

Our planet is both chaotic and stable, depending on the timescale we are looking at. Chaotic on the long timescale, but pretty stable given the much shorter timescale of known human history.

nradov 3y ago
If you believe that then I think you haven't spent much time out in nature. Some wild species populations boom and crash in chaotic ways even in areas that haven't been impacted much by humans. Nature is far from stable on any time scale longer than a year.
- HPsquared 3y ago
  Doesn't it all average out over time though? I suppose things like erosion do cause permanent changes but other than that?
- lproven 3y ago
  ISTM like you haven't fully grasped the fractal nature of, well, nature. At one scale, it's chaos. 1 or 2 scales up or down (in time or in space) it's stable. It's like that all the way up and all the way down. Oh, and not only are the scale levels not just spacial or temporal but both, but the number of levels is itself non integer. But the point is that even chaotic systems often display order if you find the right place or perspective to stand and look. You can't say "it's not stable". Not ever. Rocks aren't stable over aeons. Galaxies aren't. Protons aren't if you wait long enough. But it is often possible to measure the rates of change and of complexity and say, look, given greater levels of complexity, then lower rates of change will probably hold... Even given a famine or a plague that's currently devastating one region.

rektide 3y ago

AWOBMOLG was more about mythologization of tech as oracular & all powerful, leading us to think that we can handle anything. Techno-utopianism. A lot of the series is about the belief that we could, with technologies predictive powers & neoliberal market ethos... And how it doesn't pan out. We have "New Economies" greatly bloom in the world. And about how instead we got the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We thought we were taming market complexity (via in part neoliberalism weirdly) but turns out not so much. We have the rise of cybernetic thinking & Limits of Growth (& it's limitations in assuming we cannot change human behavior). "Sure everything is trending towards shit, but we're humans, we can definitely go create some genius machine that will fix this, right" Curtis rarely comes out and makes broad conclusions, but the watcher is definitely left with impression of absurd hubris & folly & chaos-triumphant, in AWOBMOLG and in much else of Curtis's excellent excellent catalog of contemporary history documentaries.

denton-scratch 3y ago
> Curtis rarely comes out and makes broad conclusions Indeed; his films (and their titles!) are oblique and suggestive. They are about politics, but it's very hard to discern his own political posture clearly. I wonder what kind of a man he would be to meet.
- rektide 3y ago
  He's still a bit reserved somewhat in interviews but they are fun to watch. Just my take, but I think the core concept is really that there is no one actually genuinely leading, no one left with a compelling believable vision in any position of power, and that total power vacuum keeps letting mad scenes play out across history. The need for hope, to show a willingness to go in authentically good direction at scale, is a fuel that powers the public spirit, and we keep suffering long eras where it's simply unavailable.

nradov 3y ago

Humans have destroyed natural habitats, but at the same time some species have come to thrive in the unnatural habitats we have created. Think of pigeons, rats, cockroaches, coyotes, racoons, etc. Life expands to fill every niche where enough energy is available for survival.