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Oh please stop with this meaningless fear mongering. AI is a (not so good) tool. Yes it can write very short snippets that often make sense, but in no way can

Oh please stop with this meaningless fear mongering. AI is a (not so good) tool. Yes it can write very short snippets that often make sense, but in no way can understand requirements, do debugging or maintain existing code.

rippercushions 4y ago
The ChatGPT 4 developer demo showcased literally all three of those. https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/how-to-watch-first-demo-chatgpt-4/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/how-to-watch-first-d...
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  According to HN, technology never improves. The first version of something is always the way it will ever be. OpenAI hasn't improved at all from GPT-3 to GPT-4, and all the billions flowing into this field will cause zero improvements in the next 30 years. This place needs to change its name to LudditeNews.
  - majewsky 4y ago
    The main concern of the luddites was not "technology = bad" like most popular caricatures of them, but that their livelihood was obliterated by the first wave of factory owners taking all the profits that were previously shared with the workers for themselves. Really they were pushing in the same direction as those who today are calling for machine taxes or UBI.
    - Sugimot0 4y ago
      Ehhh I'd argue they had more in common with socialists/communists, they were literally destroying the means of production in worker solidarity to improve their condition and bargaining ability. Marx even refers directly to the situation of the guilds in industrialization. The belief is that new means of production should be embraced, owned, and operated by workers to benefit the many and not just the few exploitative capitalists (which are those who own means of production). Instead of exploiting lay-offs and long shifts, and disregarding safety to save the capitalist money, the factory would instead be built and operated for the benefit of workers and society, prioritizing safety and sharing shorter shifts among a larger workforce to preserve jobs. From a socialist/communist perspective machine taxes and UBI are like cheap bribes to avoid the issue and preserve the exploitative system in place. The luddites probably would have felt the same had they been offered a pity sum or machine tax from factory owners to "offset" their condition.
- bombolo 4y ago
  Lol, I talked about very short snippets and you counter my argument with a video showing very short snippets. If I wasn't scared before, I'm even less scared now. But if all you do is write trivial code anyone can learn to write in 1 week, with extremely detailed instructions, perhaps your job is in danger indeed. That's not what a software engineer does anyway.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    You completely ignored my original point about this tech replacing the bottom 80%ile of coders, not the top 20%.
    - bombolo 4y ago
      Maybe it can replace the bottom 1%
spaceman_2020 4y ago
boggles my mind that we had a tool that was smart when it was first launched in November 2022, experienced a massive generational improvement in the next iteration (GPT-4) within 4 months...and people on HN are ready to assert that this is the best it will ever be. It improved drastically in quality within 4 months, yet for some reason, the nex 10 years will see 0 progress in a field with literally tens of billions and intellectual capital flowing in.
- bombolo 4y ago
  We will certainly see hype like for cryptocurrencies…
  - projectazorian 4y ago
    No coincidence that a lot of the web3 grifters have pivoted to hyping up AI.
- projectazorian 4y ago
  Most revolutionary technical changes like this tend to hit a plateau in progress right after they hit the top of the hype cycle. It’s unlikely that AI/ML will be an exception. Not bad news for anyone involved in this work, though. That period is when the real business and societal changes happen. It’s also when most of the money gets made. People and businesses need time to test new technology and adapt it so that it works reliably for their specific use cases. GPT and other LLMs are no exception.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    Again, the point is that careers are built over decades, and this proof of concept tech is already good enough to do the job of a coding intern. That might not be a threat to you if you’re a 35 year old developer, but if you’re an 18 year old exiting high school, there’s a non zero chance that by the time you’re 35 - 17 years - the tech will be good enough to replace you.
- imtringued 4y ago

rippercushions 4y ago

The ChatGPT 4 developer demo showcased literally all three of those. https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/how-to-watch-first-demo-chatgpt-4/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/how-to-watch-first-d...

spaceman_2020 4y ago
According to HN, technology never improves. The first version of something is always the way it will ever be. OpenAI hasn't improved at all from GPT-3 to GPT-4, and all the billions flowing into this field will cause zero improvements in the next 30 years. This place needs to change its name to LudditeNews.
- majewsky 4y ago
  The main concern of the luddites was not "technology = bad" like most popular caricatures of them, but that their livelihood was obliterated by the first wave of factory owners taking all the profits that were previously shared with the workers for themselves. Really they were pushing in the same direction as those who today are calling for machine taxes or UBI.
  - Sugimot0 4y ago
    Ehhh I'd argue they had more in common with socialists/communists, they were literally destroying the means of production in worker solidarity to improve their condition and bargaining ability. Marx even refers directly to the situation of the guilds in industrialization. The belief is that new means of production should be embraced, owned, and operated by workers to benefit the many and not just the few exploitative capitalists (which are those who own means of production). Instead of exploiting lay-offs and long shifts, and disregarding safety to save the capitalist money, the factory would instead be built and operated for the benefit of workers and society, prioritizing safety and sharing shorter shifts among a larger workforce to preserve jobs. From a socialist/communist perspective machine taxes and UBI are like cheap bribes to avoid the issue and preserve the exploitative system in place. The luddites probably would have felt the same had they been offered a pity sum or machine tax from factory owners to "offset" their condition.
bombolo 4y ago
Lol, I talked about very short snippets and you counter my argument with a video showing very short snippets. If I wasn't scared before, I'm even less scared now. But if all you do is write trivial code anyone can learn to write in 1 week, with extremely detailed instructions, perhaps your job is in danger indeed. That's not what a software engineer does anyway.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  You completely ignored my original point about this tech replacing the bottom 80%ile of coders, not the top 20%.
  - bombolo 4y ago
    Maybe it can replace the bottom 1%

spaceman_2020 4y ago

boggles my mind that we had a tool that was smart when it was first launched in November 2022, experienced a massive generational improvement in the next iteration (GPT-4) within 4 months...and people on HN are ready to assert that this is the best it will ever be. It improved drastically in quality within 4 months, yet for some reason, the nex 10 years will see 0 progress in a field with literally tens of billions and intellectual capital flowing in.

bombolo 4y ago
We will certainly see hype like for cryptocurrencies…
- projectazorian 4y ago
  No coincidence that a lot of the web3 grifters have pivoted to hyping up AI.
projectazorian 4y ago
Most revolutionary technical changes like this tend to hit a plateau in progress right after they hit the top of the hype cycle. It’s unlikely that AI/ML will be an exception. Not bad news for anyone involved in this work, though. That period is when the real business and societal changes happen. It’s also when most of the money gets made. People and businesses need time to test new technology and adapt it so that it works reliably for their specific use cases. GPT and other LLMs are no exception.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Again, the point is that careers are built over decades, and this proof of concept tech is already good enough to do the job of a coding intern. That might not be a threat to you if you’re a 35 year old developer, but if you’re an 18 year old exiting high school, there’s a non zero chance that by the time you’re 35 - 17 years - the tech will be good enough to replace you.
imtringued 4y ago