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Somewhat related: The problem with Nate Silver and most others in this game is they don't treat the statistics they show as random variables. I want to see conf
by mempko 4y ago
Somewhat related: The problem with Nate Silver and most others in this game is they don't treat the statistics they show as random variables. I want to see confidence intervals for all statistics. They just show 'Chance of winning is X" instead what they need to so is 'Change of winning is between X and Y'. It's such a simple change I'm shocked nobody does it including Nate Silver.
It's all what I call 'pop statistics' at this point and IMO hurts the public and democracy.
- kadoban 4y agoYou do not have to dig far _at all_ on 538 to find that info. They prominently display the distribution of their results.