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I agree with your assessment about Google's predicament and their laurel-resting-on, but I think it's a little early to say they're about to "get murdered". I

by dougb5 3y ago

I agree with your assessment about Google's predicament and their laurel-resting-on, but I think it's a little early to say they're about to "get murdered". I don't see evidence from these earnings that ChatGPT has meaningfully hurt their search traffic, and it's been two quarters. If the murder is in progress then it doesn't show, and if the murder is yet to come then I think they still have plenty of time to react -- thoughtfully and carefully, I hope.

adventured 3y ago
I agree it's not a certainty at all. That's why I referenced the risk that it happens, rather than proclaiming it was definitely going to happen. Alphabet has mediocre leadership for this time and place. Sundar Pichai is to Alphabet as Ballmer was to Microsoft. Perfectly fine managers (both managed considerable expansions, courtesy of inherited momentum), but that's all they can do. They're the wrong types to have in charge during a critical tech inflection that threatens the overall business. Nadella was the right person to have in charge of Microsoft to make the needed changes; and despite being behind the curve due to Ballmer, they were still able to recharge Microsoft and right the ship. The sooner Alphabet gets rid of Pichai the sooner they can begin attempting to avoid the beating that is bearing down on their core business rapidly. They're going to have to be willing to cannibalize the Google business as needed and Pichai can't pull that off (and the founders are probably not remotely hungry enough to want to try to do it, to put in the sweat necessary, based on their last years in management there and how they left). Amusingly Alphabet is facing this threat similarly as Microsoft did, under the very bright lights of anti-trust. It's probably not far-fetched to say that if Ballmer had remained in charge for another 5-7 years, it might have been too much, too far gone to recover from (they would have missed the ramp to the next era by too much); I believe the same is true about Pichai and the present leadership at Alphabet, they can't do what needs to be done, and if the board/large vote holders wait five or more years to make the needed changes, it'll probably be too late to fully recover from.

by dougb5 3y ago

adventured 3y ago

I agree it's not a certainty at all. That's why I referenced the risk that it happens, rather than proclaiming it was definitely going to happen. Alphabet has mediocre leadership for this time and place. Sundar Pichai is to Alphabet as Ballmer was to Microsoft. Perfectly fine managers (both managed considerable expansions, courtesy of inherited momentum), but that's all they can do. They're the wrong types to have in charge during a critical tech inflection that threatens the overall business. Nadella was the right person to have in charge of Microsoft to make the needed changes; and despite being behind the curve due to Ballmer, they were still able to recharge Microsoft and right the ship. The sooner Alphabet gets rid of Pichai the sooner they can begin attempting to avoid the beating that is bearing down on their core business rapidly. They're going to have to be willing to cannibalize the Google business as needed and Pichai can't pull that off (and the founders are probably not remotely hungry enough to want to try to do it, to put in the sweat necessary, based on their last years in management there and how they left). Amusingly Alphabet is facing this threat similarly as Microsoft did, under the very bright lights of anti-trust. It's probably not far-fetched to say that if Ballmer had remained in charge for another 5-7 years, it might have been too much, too far gone to recover from (they would have missed the ramp to the next era by too much); I believe the same is true about Pichai and the present leadership at Alphabet, they can't do what needs to be done, and if the board/large vote holders wait five or more years to make the needed changes, it'll probably be too late to fully recover from.