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My brother is in HVAC, so my perspective on this is biased, but in general there's a blue collar shortage because the job still sucks. First, you have pretty h

• xattt 4y ago
  > First, you have pretty high barriers to entry in the form of apprenticeships and per-state licensing requirements. Your brother’s story can also be applied to the shortage of nurses/allied health staff in Canada.
  • Tangurena2 4y ago
    Nursing goes through boom & bust cycles. When wages start creeping up, the media is full of "OMG! Shortage of nurses!" Then as too many youngsters start nursing, the job market gets flooded and nurses quit. In previous decades, nurses quit to make more money elsewhere. After COVID, nurses are just plain burned out. Medical staff got too abused by mismanagers and assaults by anti-vax people, this results in them quitting - no amount of money will keep them.
• deleted 4y ago
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• aidenn0 4y ago
  Everyone I know who does blue collar work echoes what you said. It's pretty broken on the other side of things too, presumably because the work sucks so much and is so variable that they are incentivized to milk every penny from those who appear like they can afford it. As a busy professional homeowner that is well-paid, I would gladly pay 50% more than the current going rate in town to know that a decent, workmanlike job would be done. The quality of the work is completely decoupled from the rates charged though, which kind of makes sense, as there are plenty of people in town who need HVAC/plumbing/electrical &c. work done who can't afford to pay over the going rate. It took me a decade to find a plumber that is honest (luckily they do decent work as well, but honest was hard enough of a bar to reach).
  • JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > As a busy professional homeowner that is well-paid, I would gladly pay 50% more than the current going rate in town to know that a decent, workmanlike job would be done Without forcing consolidation, how would one do this? (Preferably, something which can be enacted at the state level.) Reviews don't work. Optional, high-barrier certifications? Competitions?
    • blastro 4y ago
      The ol' fashioned grapevine. Aka word of mouth. Aka the original social network.
    • scythe 4y ago
      >Without forcing consolidation, how would one do this? Use the wildly popular technique that has taken over the assessment of everything else too big to measure: the random sample. Every registered technician will enter each job performed into a lottery, which will be reviewed by a qualified analyst. A single bad finding shouldn't ruin anyone, but a good record keeping methodology with appropriate sampling and a suitable penalty for failing to register a job — registration will likely be demanded by consumers anyway — should effectively weed out any laggards. I am not aware of this being implemented for any home maintenance, but this is how hospital accreditation is done. Every now and then The Joint Commission shows up and inspects stuff.
• elbigbad 4y ago
  > shit customers that expect those shit hours. My brother got angry calls from customers because he dared to say no when they wanted him to ditch his daughter's birthday party on a Saturday to go fix their AC immediately. Somewhat cautiously optimistically I think this sort of behavior will slowly disappear, one funeral at a time, as the Boomer generation finds the urn. I do not know or know of a single millennial in my first or second order groups that would ever dare to treat any service/blue collar person with anything but the utmost respect and deference.
  • stcroixx 4y ago
    Wow, what’s the secret to being so awesome? A whole generation just gets it.
    • Arrath 4y ago
      Growing up, my dad would always reply "If I was in that much of a hurry, I would have come in yesterday." whenever e.g. a bank teller or cashier or whoever apologized for a slight delay. That kind of laid back attitude really took hold with me. Over the years I have realized that the rush and push really just adds stress (both to yourself and others) for no true benefit. Just as how for the average commute, speeding will generally save you at most a few minutes. To the GP's point about screaming at HVAC folks to come fix their equipment right now? Currently I'm waiting for a service guy to come look at my swamp cooler, when I reached out he was 10 days out thanks to being quite busy this time of year. To be expected, certainly. Sure, maybe I'll spend a day or two a little more uncomfortable than I might otherwise be since the cooler is not in service and its forecast to get warmer in the coming days, but what of it? Short term uncomfort is no big deal, maybe I'll sweat a little. I can always turn a fan on and take a cold shower. My grandparents didn't even have the luxury of a swamp cooler. I spend enough of my day under the gun of project managers, lawyers, owner's reps and schedulers all breathing down my neck to gain a day or two on a schedule, to make up for a delay that ate into float. That stress just isn't cool, I won't turn around and pass it on to anyone else, especially if they're going to be doing something good for me.
      • 4y ago
• antisthenes 4y ago
  > So, option A is you go to college, immediately get a job with zero hurdles up front, sit behind a desk from 9-5, and collect a solid paycheck. Ask the cohort of 2008-2011 how well that worked out for them. And in case it isn't obvious for someone - that's been the largest labor participation rate drop in modern history. On top of that, many people with college degrees from that period never actually landed a well-paying job and are still stuck in service and low-wage manual labor jobs. I bet many of them would have loved to have a trade job instead. Meanwhile, HVAC guys near me charge $700 to run a thermostat wire 5 feet. I mean maybe it sucks to work trades in a low COL area, but the tradesmen where I live make bank and have no trouble charging $80+/hr
  • HeyLaughingBoy 4y ago
    How many hours per week are they billing?
    • lotsofpulp 4y ago
      And how many hours do they spend traveling from place to place? I suspect the total pay divided by total hours is nowhere near as impressive, even assuming they are W-2 employees with a full set of tax advantaged benefits that a usual white collar employee would have.
    • antisthenes 4y ago
      The answer to that really is as many hours as they want. If they want to work more hours, they can lower their rate and advertise it as such. But if we're talking peak season for HVAC (e.g. May through September) then they have no problem working literally as much as they want at their full rate. Everyone is booked 4-5 days out during this period.
  • com2kid 4y ago
    > I mean maybe it sucks to work trades in a low COL area, but the tradesmen where I live make bank and have no trouble charging $80+/hr My neighbor just paid $100 an hour to have his fence painted. Actual tradesmen earn a lot more. I've talked to more than one plumber who has a really nice house, better than anything I can afford as a software engineer, unless I get lucky with stock options at some point.
• lotsofpulp 4y ago
  > My brother is in HVAC, so my perspective on this is biased, but in general there's a blue collar shortage because the job still sucks. It is not biased, it is common sense. The barrier to entry to being an electrician is sufficiently low in the sense that many people have the natural ability to learn and physically do the work. That must mean the pay to quality of life ratio is insufficient to attract enough workers (including excessively low pay to quality of life ratio during training).
• DrThunder 4y ago
  Option A only exists for a select few STEM degrees. Otherwise, that solid paycheck doesn't really exist for a 4 year degree. Option B means you're getting paid while learning instead of shelling out $50k+ for a 4 year degree. "Shitty condtions" is subjective. A lot of people would call staring at a screen in a cube, under harsh fluorescent lights while breathing in your coworkers farts and getting obese from zero movement shitty. Also, you're severely underestimating what kinda money a tradesman can bring in. It's on par/better than a lot of 4 year degree holders without the debt part.
  • jamiek88 4y ago
    Are you a tradesman?
  • bluGill 4y ago
    When I was younger I hated the time behind the monitor and enjoyed the weekend projects. Now that i'm older my body aches when I anything. (Sitting on a chair is still doing something!)
    • DrThunder 4y ago
      Gotta get out and move in your free time. It'll only get worse if you don't.
  • mensetmanusman 4y ago
    “stare at a screen in a cube, under harsh fluorescent lights while breathing in your coworkers farts and getting obese from zero movement” You should write Amazon Job ads!
  • trashtester 4y ago
    > "Shitty condtions" is subjective. Try working as a plumber for a month, and "shitty" takes on a new, more literal meaning. "Subjective" often just means "relative to their experience". If someone never did work in a physically exhausting, dirty or dangerous job, they tend to have a different view of "shitty conditions" than those who did.
  • 4y ago
• cashsterling 4y ago
  Counter anecdote... A good friend of mine in HS did one semester of college, said "nope. not for me" and became an electrician. Fast forward ~30 years, he planning on retiring in a few years (could retire now if he wanted to). He's smart, worked hard, learned and taught himself as much as possible. Took & passed all tests asap, got his contractor's license asap, etc. Branched out to learn industrial controls and electrical too. I think pursuing a trade can be a really good way to go... but you need to go into it planning to learn & teach yourself and push the excel. I know welders who make >200k USD a year working 4-6 months a year. They are crazy skilled and know their craft inside and out... they know more metallurgical science than me (and way more practical knowledge about metal alloys) and I was chemical and materials engineering major. I know a master carpenter/craftsman who makea >500k a year, profit, doing high end cabinets, woodworking, furniture, building, kitchen remodels, etc.
  • dieselgate 4y ago
    For sure there are tradespeople making those kind of wages but are definitely extreme outliers. Edit: the big difference in software engineering compared to trades work specifically is liability. I know construction workers who have lost their license, driven a 16D nail through their kneecap, cut off fingers, etc and have no pay or anything to show for it. And can’t work as a result - this is more bodily stuff but they’re also on the hook for damages/accidents caused by subs etc. Software eng is amazing because there is really no liability compared to construction. My dad is a civil engineer and even though he’s almost a decade retired he still maintains insurance and stuff for past projects because of “statute of limitations” type liability stuff. There’s a ton of money to be made in trades/construction but the stakes are much higher
    • JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > dad is a civil engineer and even though he’s almost a decade retired he still maintains insurance and stuff for past projects because of “statute of limitations” type liability stuff Huh. I know a doctor and a civil engineer who both, on retirement, divorced their spouses and basically gifted them everything. Zero clue how this works, legally. For what it's worth, they're both in Florida.
• balderdash 4y ago
  > Then you have the shit hours and shit customers that expect those shit hours. Not saying this is your brother’s situation - but pretty much all of the HVAC companies I’ve dealt with tout their emergency repair services (if not 24/7 availability), and many of them include that when you buy a new HVAC system - so it seems pretty rational to expect those service providers to honor their claims
  • bluGill 4y ago
    I'm guessing he owns a small business. Anyone with a few employees will rotate weekends between them so you always know when you are on call. They also often trade weekends so they can get to that birthday party.
  • WalterBright 4y ago
    My house has a drain under the hot water heater. When it inevitably starts leaking, it is not an emergency.
    • balderdash 4y ago
      Your point being?
      • WalterBright 4y ago
        The incidence of emergencies is reduced, saving money you don't need to pay for emergency services.
• jackcosgrove 4y ago
  Not to mention the dating and marriage prospects without a college degree, even if you outearn a degree holder, are worse.
  • cudgy 4y ago
    My guess is once the date sees a nicer house, car, and bank account, the college degree bump drops like an anchor.
    • lostapathy 4y ago
      The trouble there is that you're probably out of your prime dating years by the time you're your own boss and really making big money in the trades. It takes time to establish and build that business, the early years can be pretty lean as people get the business going.
    • xattt 4y ago
      Going by post-secondary education status tends to filter for a character trait I’ve yet to name. The closest I’ve come is something akin to long-term emotional regulation. Obviously, there’s many, many exceptions to this. I’ve worked in an environment where there was a mix of grads from certificate, diploma and degree programs. There were certain “profiles” of people that you would come to expect from each “bin” and 8/10 times your hunches were right.
    • asdfman123 4y ago
      Most guys on the internet think a guy has to meet a high bar of requirements when really all they want is someone who is not so dependent on them: can take care of himself, cover his own bills, etc. Someone who’s self sufficient and doesn’t need a mother. Sure, maybe that one girl passed on you in your 20s because you didn’t have the right credentials, but there are plenty of other people out there.
      • trashtester 4y ago
        [flagged]
• deleted 4y ago
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• greedo 4y ago
  When I worked in the restaurant biz, I made friends with our HVAC contractor. He service nothing but McDonalds in SoCal, and made pretty good money. He had a steady supply of reliable (paying) customers who didn't treat him like crap. But he had a hard time keeping anyone on staff since as soon as they learned the ropes, they started their own company.
  • bradfa 4y ago
    My plumber is the same way. One man business and said it’s hard to keep employees as once trained they quickly job shop for a raise and he can’t match the bigger firms’ pay or they’d strike out on their own. So he gave up on it and stays a one man operation. Not the best for me if there’s an emergency in the middle of the night but having a plumber I trust and who will show me what he’s doing is a fair trade off.
• poulsbohemian 4y ago
  And then in all likelihood, your body is shot by age 40 and you are looking for a new career where you don’t have to carry heavy things and crawl into tiny dirty spaces anymore either. This is the thing I keep telling my son - the trades are fine potentially when you are young, but you don’t want to be doing them still when you are 60.
  • swalling 4y ago
    This is total nonsense. By your 60s, a smart person who has been in the trades since their early 20s should own an independent business or at the very least manage a team of people / apprentices who can do the heavy lifting. This is no different than the fact that most software engineers still working in their 60s are almost all either managers, senior architects, or independent consultants with a solid client base. My appliance repair guy works every day with his father who is in his early 70s, and the younger guy does all the hard physical labor of lifting and dragging dishwashers, refrigerators, etc. and you can tell the old guy would rather be working every day with his son than sitting on the couch twiddling his thumbs. The other version story is my uncle who built a local landscaping company. He did backbreaking work every day sunrise to sunset when he was young, and then by middle age he was hiring crews to do the labor. In his 60s he is fully retired with money for a second vacation home in Mexico and lots of toys.
    • MrBuddyCasino 4y ago
      Moving to the top of the pyramid and employing people works a lot better when the population is growing. Its not.
      • swalling 4y ago
        Say it with me now: immigration. Who do you think most landscapers, house painters, and roofers employ already?
        • deleted 4y ago
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• obscurette 4y ago
  > First, you have pretty high barriers to entry in the form of apprenticeships and per-state licensing requirements. Then you have the shit hours and shit customers that expect those shit hours. This is actually true for many professions. I can say the same about my job as a teacher, my wife's work as a doctor etc. It's not that all these jobs suck. What sucks in general all over the world is people's attitude towards people doing work for them.
• chpatrick 4y ago
  Not to mention the wear on your back and joints from the physical labor.
• Tangurena2 4y ago
  I was a car mechanic for a while. One of the hard things about some of the trades is that you must own your own tools. So when your at a auto repair place (whether that's a car dealership or an independent repair shop) is that the tool box and everything in it belongs to that mechanic/technician. When you quit the business (almost always due to injury), you sell your tools. It is my understanding that machinists have a similar economic system. Selling your tools means retiring from the industry. I remember some complaints by the Wall Street Journal (back in the 90s) where they were lamenting the shortage of "swiss style machinists" - who make tiny, precise things, and your entire day's production could fit inside an expresso cup. Upon further investigation, that type of machinist had a 10 year long apprenticeship. Only European countries subsidized such apprenticeship programs as no American company could afford to hire workers who needed 10 years of on-the-job-training before they could be productive. They had mentioned that almost every American "swiss style machinist" got laid off when the Cold War ended and every one sold off their tools to make ends meet. As a country, we go through these silly boom/bust fads. The slavish devotion to cost-cutting has damaged our country's ability to survive change.
• cyrialize 4y ago
  I echo this. My family member is also in HVAC and does refrigeration for commercial companies. With residential, you have angry families calling you because they're hot. With commercial refrigeration, you have an angry company calling you because their fridge filled with millions of dollars worth of product is broken. It's very difficult for him to say no to things like that, and he's on call often. I feel like people often look down on trades because in their experience they can do it themselves. This is mostly true, but that's because people are usually doing things with their own home. Once you get into commercial stuff, thats when things get really hectic and stressful. You have to be certified for a myriad of things, especially since commercial equipment uses materials that you may never find in a residential home.