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For (2) - obvious answer here is crypto but again, the crypto market might implode because if (1) actually happens, the US gov is extremely incentivized to make

For (2) - obvious answer here is crypto but again, the crypto market might implode because if (1) actually happens, the US gov is extremely incentivized to make crypto ownership and trading illegal.

unusualmonkey 4y ago
There's nothing obvious about crypto being a good asset if the us govt. defaults.
- ur-whale 4y ago
  > There's nothing obvious about crypto being a good asset if the us govt. defaults. Says you, and without even the hint of an argument to back your position.
lumost 4y ago
Crypto may be a bad bet in a world where the dollar implodes. If crypto is predominantly healed by dollar holders - rebalancing from crypto to the dollar denominated assets they need to function could harm crypto prices. Alternately, in the event of a dollar default - the world may not be conducive to the capex+energy expenditure required to mine crypto. If interest rates went to 20-30%, I’m not sure that crypto mining would be a viable concern - causing instability throughout the crypto world. That being said, whether crypto is a good hedge or not really depends on whether it’s worth putting money in today - regardless of the potential for US default. Particularly in comparison to Yen, euro, and yuan assets.
- dannyw 4y ago
  Crypto mining is self adjusting, and Ethereum doesn't use mining anymore.
htss2013 4y ago
If the US government outlawed crypto to save the USD, they'd have to also outlaw gold, because that's where all the money would flow to instead. The rest of the world wouldn't outlaw gold and crypto, so the effort to kill alternatives would fail and it would just accelerate fleeing USD into gold and crypto.
- thatguy0900 4y ago
  The us government has outlawed gold before. No reason it couldn't be on the table again
foobiekr 4y ago
There is zero evidence that crypto acts as a hedge against the dollar. It has basically mostly tracked the dollar denominated stock markets.

For (2) - obvious answer here is crypto but again, the crypto market might implode because if (1) actually happens, the US gov is extremely incentivized to make crypto ownership and trading illegal.

unusualmonkey 4y ago

There's nothing obvious about crypto being a good asset if the us govt. defaults.

ur-whale 4y ago
> There's nothing obvious about crypto being a good asset if the us govt. defaults. Says you, and without even the hint of an argument to back your position.

lumost 4y ago

Crypto may be a bad bet in a world where the dollar implodes. If crypto is predominantly healed by dollar holders - rebalancing from crypto to the dollar denominated assets they need to function could harm crypto prices. Alternately, in the event of a dollar default - the world may not be conducive to the capex+energy expenditure required to mine crypto. If interest rates went to 20-30%, I’m not sure that crypto mining would be a viable concern - causing instability throughout the crypto world. That being said, whether crypto is a good hedge or not really depends on whether it’s worth putting money in today - regardless of the potential for US default. Particularly in comparison to Yen, euro, and yuan assets.

dannyw 4y ago
Crypto mining is self adjusting, and Ethereum doesn't use mining anymore.

htss2013 4y ago

If the US government outlawed crypto to save the USD, they'd have to also outlaw gold, because that's where all the money would flow to instead. The rest of the world wouldn't outlaw gold and crypto, so the effort to kill alternatives would fail and it would just accelerate fleeing USD into gold and crypto.

thatguy0900 4y ago
The us government has outlawed gold before. No reason it couldn't be on the table again

foobiekr 4y ago

There is zero evidence that crypto acts as a hedge against the dollar. It has basically mostly tracked the dollar denominated stock markets.