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> To date, no neural network shows a capacity for reasoning and creativity worthy of an animal level. Current LLMs are autoregressive models that predict the pr

> To date, no neural network shows a capacity for reasoning and creativity worthy of an animal level. Current LLMs are autoregressive models that predict the probability distribution of the next token given the set of previous tokens called context: This part seems unsubstantiated. The author implies that next-token-prediction does not lead to reasoning and creativity "of an animal level". But arguably GPT-4 is already at that level (can your dog predict what a novel Python function would output when it is executed, or write a rap song about autoregressive training where every word starts with the letter "a"¹?). Regardless of whether GPT-4 is there already, it would certainly be a risky bet to say that it is impossible for a GPT-5 to get to "animal level" (whatever that means) reasoning and creativity while still using next-token-prediction. As the article points out in the next paragraphs, there is no obvious limitation to next-token-prediction, because making the best prediction requires fully understanding the words in the context, as well as their true meaning and the reason they were written. Related to creativity, here's a Midjourney image resulting from my spouse prompting "a studious corn snake": https://chris.printf.net/a_studious_corn_snake.png https://chris.printf.net/a_studious_corn_snake.png ¹: via GPT-4: == (Verse 1) Autoregressive, arranging, assessing answers, Adjacent activations, astounding, acting as anchors, Associating abstracts, analyzing antecedents, Aptly approximating, articulating, all adjacent aspects (Chorus) Astonishing achievements, astounding accolades, Anomalous arrangements, ascending always, Audacious algorithms, autoregressive amaze, Applying ample artistry, as alliteration ablaze (Verse 2) Accelerating acumen, anonymous aspirations, Anecdotal adventures, allegorical animations, Applied apparatus, assertive applications, Astral alliterations, assembling aggregations (Chorus) (Outro) Amplified abilities, augmenting atmosphere Adapting, acclimating, always aiming austere Autoregressive training, ascending, advocates Awe-inspiring artistry, as alliteration activates

mccoyb 4y ago
Why does the studious corn snake appear to have claws and whiskers?
- cjbprime 4y ago
  Not just claws, but feet! I also like the ouroborous nature of the snake becoming the scroll, or perhaps being created by its own writing. (No, I don't know why.)
  - mccoyb 4y ago
    One of my big issues with these computational artifacts is that they are not modular -- in the sense that, if I wanted a studious snake without claws -- what things do I need to do to get it to produce a version of the snake, but "fixed" in the way which I describe. E.g. here, when I say modular -- I mean that a "fix" can't be implemented in a local, small way. I need to try again with a new prompt, etc -- and it's not clear to me how to "fix" my prompt to get the right thing. one way to support this sort of modularity might be with a GPT-4 / langagent integration which would query Midjourney until it gets a picture which satisfies my criteria, changing the prompt, etc. The problem is that, if the integration or langagent has an issue -- how do I modularly fix those systems? And so on. This sort of question "how do I figure out how to fix this prompt-based thing" makes me worry about a sort of "turtles all the way down" problem. Okay, so maybe I don't need to understand exactly how to use these systems to get what I want -- just let another LLM do that ... but what if that LLM has an issue ... and what if the LLM which is prompting that LLM has an issue ... It concerns me. I'm not sure how well founded my concerns really are.
    - cjbprime 4y ago
      GPT-4 does fine with a reply prompt of "keep the rest as-is but fix this part". I imagine Midjourney would too if it supported conversational prompting.
    - gpderetta 4y ago
      > I mean that a "fix" can't be implemented in a local, small way inpainting.
      - mccoyb 4y ago
        Great point, I'll think deeper!
famouswaffles 4y ago
>But arguably GPT-4 is already at that level There really is no arguably about it. There isn't a verifiable definition/criteria for general intelligence that GPT-4 fails that a significant chunk of the human population doesn't also fail. GPT-4 performs nearly all tasks it's given at at least the average human level, usually well above the average baseline. In some cases (nlp, analogical reasoning - https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.09196 https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.09196, and some others it's top %) You basically have to make up your own definition that can't be substantiated (don't worry, plenty seem to do this). It almost always boils down "Well it's not "real" understanding, the difference is huge, i can't show you this supposed huge difference but trust me bro, it's not real"
- hooloovoo_zoo 4y ago
  Any artificial neural net has a finite set of inputs and a finite set of outputs. That makes it equivalent to some lookup table. You must therefore claim a lookup table has the ability to reason.
  - cjbprime 4y ago
    And what, humans are made out of an infinite number of neurons?
    - hooloovoo_zoo 4y ago
      One neuron has an infinite number of possible states (as far as we know).
      - cjbprime 4y ago
        GPT-4 thinks you should provide a citation: == Me: Is it true that, in humans, one neuron has an infinite number of possible states (as far as we know)? GPT-4: It is not accurate to say that a single neuron in humans has an infinite number of possible states. Neurons are complex cells that can exhibit a wide range of behaviors and responses, but the number of states is not infinite. Neurons communicate with each other through electrical and chemical signals, and their primary functional unit is the synapse, where communication between neurons occurs. The strength and patterns of these connections can vary, resulting in a large number of potential states for a single neuron. However, this number is still finite, albeit extremely large. Moreover, the activity of a neuron can be described in terms of its membrane potential, which is a continuous variable ranging from hyperpolarized to depolarized states. While there are many possible values for the membrane potential, it is still a bounded range, not infinite. So, while the number of possible states for a single neuron is vast and complex, it is not infinite. The complexity and diversity of neuronal states contribute to the rich repertoire of cognitive and behavioral functions that humans possess.

mccoyb 4y ago

Why does the studious corn snake appear to have claws and whiskers?

cjbprime 4y ago
Not just claws, but feet! I also like the ouroborous nature of the snake becoming the scroll, or perhaps being created by its own writing. (No, I don't know why.)
- mccoyb 4y ago
  One of my big issues with these computational artifacts is that they are not modular -- in the sense that, if I wanted a studious snake without claws -- what things do I need to do to get it to produce a version of the snake, but "fixed" in the way which I describe. E.g. here, when I say modular -- I mean that a "fix" can't be implemented in a local, small way. I need to try again with a new prompt, etc -- and it's not clear to me how to "fix" my prompt to get the right thing. one way to support this sort of modularity might be with a GPT-4 / langagent integration which would query Midjourney until it gets a picture which satisfies my criteria, changing the prompt, etc. The problem is that, if the integration or langagent has an issue -- how do I modularly fix those systems? And so on. This sort of question "how do I figure out how to fix this prompt-based thing" makes me worry about a sort of "turtles all the way down" problem. Okay, so maybe I don't need to understand exactly how to use these systems to get what I want -- just let another LLM do that ... but what if that LLM has an issue ... and what if the LLM which is prompting that LLM has an issue ... It concerns me. I'm not sure how well founded my concerns really are.
  - cjbprime 4y ago
    GPT-4 does fine with a reply prompt of "keep the rest as-is but fix this part". I imagine Midjourney would too if it supported conversational prompting.
  - gpderetta 4y ago
    > I mean that a "fix" can't be implemented in a local, small way inpainting.
    - mccoyb 4y ago
      Great point, I'll think deeper!

famouswaffles 4y ago

>But arguably GPT-4 is already at that level There really is no arguably about it. There isn't a verifiable definition/criteria for general intelligence that GPT-4 fails that a significant chunk of the human population doesn't also fail. GPT-4 performs nearly all tasks it's given at at least the average human level, usually well above the average baseline. In some cases (nlp, analogical reasoning - https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.09196 https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.09196, and some others it's top %) You basically have to make up your own definition that can't be substantiated (don't worry, plenty seem to do this). It almost always boils down "Well it's not "real" understanding, the difference is huge, i can't show you this supposed huge difference but trust me bro, it's not real"

hooloovoo_zoo 4y ago
Any artificial neural net has a finite set of inputs and a finite set of outputs. That makes it equivalent to some lookup table. You must therefore claim a lookup table has the ability to reason.
- cjbprime 4y ago
  And what, humans are made out of an infinite number of neurons?
  - hooloovoo_zoo 4y ago
    One neuron has an infinite number of possible states (as far as we know).
    - cjbprime 4y ago
      GPT-4 thinks you should provide a citation: == Me: Is it true that, in humans, one neuron has an infinite number of possible states (as far as we know)? GPT-4: It is not accurate to say that a single neuron in humans has an infinite number of possible states. Neurons are complex cells that can exhibit a wide range of behaviors and responses, but the number of states is not infinite. Neurons communicate with each other through electrical and chemical signals, and their primary functional unit is the synapse, where communication between neurons occurs. The strength and patterns of these connections can vary, resulting in a large number of potential states for a single neuron. However, this number is still finite, albeit extremely large. Moreover, the activity of a neuron can be described in terms of its membrane potential, which is a continuous variable ranging from hyperpolarized to depolarized states. While there are many possible values for the membrane potential, it is still a bounded range, not infinite. So, while the number of possible states for a single neuron is vast and complex, it is not infinite. The complexity and diversity of neuronal states contribute to the rich repertoire of cognitive and behavioral functions that humans possess.