4 ms·

I wonder how much of the mainland static about Taiwan is really about seizing TSMC in particular. It represents too many global IP and fab eggs.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> wonder how much of the mainland static about Taiwan is really about seizing TSMC Virtually none. (It’s not something that can easily be seized.)
- kjellsbells 4y ago
  I don't know if an adversary would prefer to grab the people of TSMC or the facility, but as a defender that has been thinking about this for a long time, I would imagine that TSMC have contingency plans to get the smart people out and dynamite the facility, no? Somewhat like the story of US soldiers mopping up rocket scientists working for Germany in 1945 and getting them stateside.
  - caycep 4y ago
    granted, there is this "us vs them" mentality, but prior to the whole Xi/nationalist thing, weren't a lot of chip engineers going back and forth, employment-wise, between TSMC, SMIC, and other mainland companies?
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > prior to the whole Xi/nationalist thing, weren't a lot of chip engineers going back and forth, employment-wise, between TSMC, SMIC, and other mainland companies Yes. A free-trade agreement was being negotiated [1]. And the fraction of Taiwanese who identify has both Taiwanese and Chinese has quartered since Xi came to power [2]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/taiwan-china/taiwan-china-aim-to-sign-fta-like-deal-in-2010-idUSTP34984320090713 https://www.reuters.com/article/taiwan-china/taiwan-china-ai... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Taiwanese_identity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Taiwanese_i...
Hamuko 4y ago
Is the Taiwanese government not going to evacuate TSMC's personnel outside of the country and launch some artillery on the facilities?
- ElectricalUnion 4y ago
  > Is the Taiwanese government not going to evacuate TSMC's personnel outside of the country That makes defending Taiwan less desirable strategically speaking. > and launch some artillery on the facilities? You just need to contaminate the facilities with impure outside air and they're most likely ruined for months if not forever; no need to mobilize precious troops to do this.
  - waste_monk 4y ago
    I have heard that the TSMC fab is considered a strategic asset and has demolition charges that Taiwan gov can use if required, but that was just internet scuttlebutt and cannot be considered reliable. That said, I would be very surprised if the fab didn't attract a missile strike from western interests if it did look like China was going to be able overrun Taiwan and capture the fab intact. I would much rather be sure the equipment is destroyed beyond repair (and that ASML cannot provide replacements or repairs) than risk a contaminated fab be put back into service. I'm sure the Chinese gov would be willing to throw a lot of resources at it if it was "only" contaminated and the chance of repair existed.
    - ElectricalUnion 4y ago
      > risk a contaminated fab be put back into service You actually most likely can't afford the risk of running a contaminated fab. You just can't get economically viable yields under contamination; if you could, why would all those fabs care about keeping a very clean environment in the first place?
      - waste_monk 4y ago
        Sure, I get that. I meant that China has ~1.4 billion people and one of the largest economies in the world. If they really wanted to get a contaminated fab back into operational condition they could throw effectively unlimited manpower and resources into cleaning it up. Thus it would be better to blow the place up and not have to worry about it.
YetAnotherNick 4y ago
Samsung is just 2 years behind TSMC, and is in much more neutral country. Even Intel which is in its worst shape in a while is 4 years behind TSMC and is catching up. I highly doubt loosing 2 years of progress is even a discussion point for the war between two countries. War between China and Taiwan(with US as an ally) will set the world decades or even centuries behind even if nukes are not used. If nukes are used, it will set the world millenia behind.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> wonder how much of the mainland static about Taiwan is really about seizing TSMC Virtually none. (It’s not something that can easily be seized.)

kjellsbells 4y ago
I don't know if an adversary would prefer to grab the people of TSMC or the facility, but as a defender that has been thinking about this for a long time, I would imagine that TSMC have contingency plans to get the smart people out and dynamite the facility, no? Somewhat like the story of US soldiers mopping up rocket scientists working for Germany in 1945 and getting them stateside.
- caycep 4y ago
  granted, there is this "us vs them" mentality, but prior to the whole Xi/nationalist thing, weren't a lot of chip engineers going back and forth, employment-wise, between TSMC, SMIC, and other mainland companies?
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > prior to the whole Xi/nationalist thing, weren't a lot of chip engineers going back and forth, employment-wise, between TSMC, SMIC, and other mainland companies Yes. A free-trade agreement was being negotiated [1]. And the fraction of Taiwanese who identify has both Taiwanese and Chinese has quartered since Xi came to power [2]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/taiwan-china/taiwan-china-aim-to-sign-fta-like-deal-in-2010-idUSTP34984320090713 https://www.reuters.com/article/taiwan-china/taiwan-china-ai... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Taiwanese_identity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Taiwanese_i...

Hamuko 4y ago

Is the Taiwanese government not going to evacuate TSMC's personnel outside of the country and launch some artillery on the facilities?

ElectricalUnion 4y ago
> Is the Taiwanese government not going to evacuate TSMC's personnel outside of the country That makes defending Taiwan less desirable strategically speaking. > and launch some artillery on the facilities? You just need to contaminate the facilities with impure outside air and they're most likely ruined for months if not forever; no need to mobilize precious troops to do this.
- waste_monk 4y ago
  I have heard that the TSMC fab is considered a strategic asset and has demolition charges that Taiwan gov can use if required, but that was just internet scuttlebutt and cannot be considered reliable. That said, I would be very surprised if the fab didn't attract a missile strike from western interests if it did look like China was going to be able overrun Taiwan and capture the fab intact. I would much rather be sure the equipment is destroyed beyond repair (and that ASML cannot provide replacements or repairs) than risk a contaminated fab be put back into service. I'm sure the Chinese gov would be willing to throw a lot of resources at it if it was "only" contaminated and the chance of repair existed.
  - ElectricalUnion 4y ago
    > risk a contaminated fab be put back into service You actually most likely can't afford the risk of running a contaminated fab. You just can't get economically viable yields under contamination; if you could, why would all those fabs care about keeping a very clean environment in the first place?
    - waste_monk 4y ago
      Sure, I get that. I meant that China has ~1.4 billion people and one of the largest economies in the world. If they really wanted to get a contaminated fab back into operational condition they could throw effectively unlimited manpower and resources into cleaning it up. Thus it would be better to blow the place up and not have to worry about it.

YetAnotherNick 4y ago

Samsung is just 2 years behind TSMC, and is in much more neutral country. Even Intel which is in its worst shape in a while is 4 years behind TSMC and is catching up. I highly doubt loosing 2 years of progress is even a discussion point for the war between two countries. War between China and Taiwan(with US as an ally) will set the world decades or even centuries behind even if nukes are not used. If nukes are used, it will set the world millenia behind.