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The war in Ukraine drives up prices of fuel which has a knock on effect to just about everything else.

illiarian 4y ago
I wouldn't be surprised if it's also overlapping long tails of everything: from COVID global trade and shipping disruptions to war in Ukraine affecting grain shipments to rising fuel prices to...
- Paul-Craft 4y ago
  Let's not forget natural gas is the main source of methane used to make synthetic fertilizers. Since Russian natural gas isn't flowing the way it used to, I can imagine that would increase the price of food.
- CannisterFlux 4y ago
  "Climate change" is probably the long tail of everything you could add to the list. The flooding in Pakistan in 2022 for example. Remember that one? It destroyed crops and then there's the draining and fixing the land afterwards, infrastructure damage making planting for the next season more difficult, and so on. Pakistan was the 3rd global exporter of rice after India and Thailand in 2021.
qbasic_forever 4y ago
Saudi Arabia effectively sets the price of oil. Ukraine doesn't produce any of it. Some tanks banging around the countryside there are not major consumers of oil, one oil tanker crossing the ocean is burning and blasting through orders of magnitude more oil.
- tekla 4y ago
  Who said that Tanks in Ukraine are the main drivers to oil price increases?
  - qbasic_forever 4y ago
    The person I'm directly replying to said the war in Ukraine is causing oil prices to increase. What else would be using major amounts of oil in a war? But like I said it's beside the point. The price of oil is effectively set by the production volume of Saudi Arabia. Ukraine does not factor into it at all.
    - Retric 4y ago
      Russia is a major oil exporter ~10 million barrels per day, and they are impacted by the war.
      - qbasic_forever 4y ago
        Their exports are humming along just fine as they've made new agreements with China and other countries to get out of the petro-dollar hegemony. It's been over a year and the sanctions against Russian oil exports appear to have done nothing.
        politician 4y ago
        If I posted as frequently within the short amount of time as you have on this topic, my account would have been throttled. My account is frequently throttled for posting more than 5-7 times per hour, and yet, your recent history shows a far higher rate of posts in defense of Russia with no evidence of throttling. That's very interesting. I wonder if limits are relaxed above 8k karma.
        qbasic_forever 4y ago
        I'm an American that's fed up with the continued support of sanctions and this useless war in Ukraine. We have flushed billions of dollars into this conflict and enacted pain on the world for zero gain. It's time for the west to admit failure on this and push Ukraine to bargain for a cease fire, even if it costs them contested territory like Crimea or Donbas. The history of conflict in those regions is quite complicated and zero concern for the US--we have far bigger problems at home to worry about.
- Paul-Craft 4y ago
  I believe the fuel being referred to is natural gas, much of which has historically come from Russia.
- theandrewbailey 4y ago
  Russia is a major producer of oil and gas, which has been extremely sanctioned. Oil and gas that used to come from Russia need to come from somewhere else, raising demand (and thus, prices) for other producers.
  - qbasic_forever 4y ago
    No Russia made new agreements with China, India, etc. and their oil and gas is being "laundered" through sales to those countries and back out to the west. The sanctions have failed to do anything.
    - andreygrehov 4y ago
      Not only failed, but backfired. All these Russia/China/India deals is the result of the sanctions. Heck, even Japan is now ignoring the price thresholds and buys from Russia.
      - qbasic_forever 4y ago
        Yup, and no one is paying for oil in dollars anymore. The global value of the dollar is going to be destroyed over time. It's really breathtaking how quickly the west has decided to shoot itself in the foot with nothing to show for it.
        boc 4y ago
        Cite your sources for the claim that “no one is paying for oil in dollars anymore” The West has stood up to a blatant land-grab invasion and has armed Ukrainians with the means to defend themselves effectively. Decimating the Russian military without firing a shot is objectively a NATO victory, regardless of the ultimate outcome.
        ren_engineer 4y ago
        the ham-fisted SWIFT ban was the real mistake and that is what's driving countries away from the dollar more than anything. Removing Russia from SWIFT was the financial equivalent of launching nukes and will be seen as a major mistake long term China's competitor to SWIFT has doubled in transaction volume since the sanctions and is growing fast - https://www.ft.com/content/6d5bbdbc-9f5d-41b2-ba80-7d8ac3973cf3 https://www.ft.com/content/6d5bbdbc-9f5d-41b2-ba80-7d8ac3973...
maerF0x0 4y ago
Also the cost/availability of fertilizer on the other side of the conflict https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-affecting-the-worlds-supply-of-fertilizer https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukr...

I wouldn't be surprised if it's also overlapping long tails of everything: from COVID global trade and shipping disruptions to war in Ukraine affecting grain shipments to rising fuel prices to...

Paul-Craft 4y ago
Let's not forget natural gas is the main source of methane used to make synthetic fertilizers. Since Russian natural gas isn't flowing the way it used to, I can imagine that would increase the price of food.
CannisterFlux 4y ago
"Climate change" is probably the long tail of everything you could add to the list. The flooding in Pakistan in 2022 for example. Remember that one? It destroyed crops and then there's the draining and fixing the land afterwards, infrastructure damage making planting for the next season more difficult, and so on. Pakistan was the 3rd global exporter of rice after India and Thailand in 2021.

qbasic_forever 4y ago

Saudi Arabia effectively sets the price of oil. Ukraine doesn't produce any of it. Some tanks banging around the countryside there are not major consumers of oil, one oil tanker crossing the ocean is burning and blasting through orders of magnitude more oil.

tekla 4y ago
Who said that Tanks in Ukraine are the main drivers to oil price increases?
- qbasic_forever 4y ago
  The person I'm directly replying to said the war in Ukraine is causing oil prices to increase. What else would be using major amounts of oil in a war? But like I said it's beside the point. The price of oil is effectively set by the production volume of Saudi Arabia. Ukraine does not factor into it at all.
  - Retric 4y ago
    Russia is a major oil exporter ~10 million barrels per day, and they are impacted by the war.
    - qbasic_forever 4y ago
      Their exports are humming along just fine as they've made new agreements with China and other countries to get out of the petro-dollar hegemony. It's been over a year and the sanctions against Russian oil exports appear to have done nothing.
      - politician 4y ago
        If I posted as frequently within the short amount of time as you have on this topic, my account would have been throttled. My account is frequently throttled for posting more than 5-7 times per hour, and yet, your recent history shows a far higher rate of posts in defense of Russia with no evidence of throttling. That's very interesting. I wonder if limits are relaxed above 8k karma.
        qbasic_forever 4y ago
        I'm an American that's fed up with the continued support of sanctions and this useless war in Ukraine. We have flushed billions of dollars into this conflict and enacted pain on the world for zero gain. It's time for the west to admit failure on this and push Ukraine to bargain for a cease fire, even if it costs them contested territory like Crimea or Donbas. The history of conflict in those regions is quite complicated and zero concern for the US--we have far bigger problems at home to worry about.
Paul-Craft 4y ago
I believe the fuel being referred to is natural gas, much of which has historically come from Russia.
theandrewbailey 4y ago
Russia is a major producer of oil and gas, which has been extremely sanctioned. Oil and gas that used to come from Russia need to come from somewhere else, raising demand (and thus, prices) for other producers.
- qbasic_forever 4y ago
  No Russia made new agreements with China, India, etc. and their oil and gas is being "laundered" through sales to those countries and back out to the west. The sanctions have failed to do anything.
  - andreygrehov 4y ago
    Not only failed, but backfired. All these Russia/China/India deals is the result of the sanctions. Heck, even Japan is now ignoring the price thresholds and buys from Russia.
    - qbasic_forever 4y ago
      Yup, and no one is paying for oil in dollars anymore. The global value of the dollar is going to be destroyed over time. It's really breathtaking how quickly the west has decided to shoot itself in the foot with nothing to show for it.
      - boc 4y ago
        Cite your sources for the claim that “no one is paying for oil in dollars anymore” The West has stood up to a blatant land-grab invasion and has armed Ukrainians with the means to defend themselves effectively. Decimating the Russian military without firing a shot is objectively a NATO victory, regardless of the ultimate outcome.
        ren_engineer 4y ago
        the ham-fisted SWIFT ban was the real mistake and that is what's driving countries away from the dollar more than anything. Removing Russia from SWIFT was the financial equivalent of launching nukes and will be seen as a major mistake long term China's competitor to SWIFT has doubled in transaction volume since the sanctions and is growing fast - https://www.ft.com/content/6d5bbdbc-9f5d-41b2-ba80-7d8ac3973cf3 https://www.ft.com/content/6d5bbdbc-9f5d-41b2-ba80-7d8ac3973...

maerF0x0 4y ago

Also the cost/availability of fertilizer on the other side of the conflict https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-affecting-the-worlds-supply-of-fertilizer https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukr...