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AGI is a two dimensional space. The first axis is intelligence, i.e. ability to reason, learn and synthesize, ranging from below-human, human parity, and super
by zarzavat 4y ago
AGI is a two dimensional space.
The first axis is intelligence, i.e. ability to reason, learn and synthesize, ranging from below-human, human parity, and super-human.
The second axis is cost. Ranging from high-cost (more expensive to run an AGI than a human), parity (costs the same as a human employee) and low-cost (much cheaper than a human employee).
Different points in this space lead to different outcomes. For example parity intelligence and low cost leads to a world where knowledge workers all lose their jobs. Whereas super-intelligence and high-cost leads to a world where government entities have huge amounts of power over us. Super-intelligence and low-cost leads to a chaotic singularity.
Currently we are hovering around far below-human intelligence and very low-cost ($20/month for ChatGPT).
- Smoosh 4y ago> leads to a world where government entities have huge amounts of power over us Aren't we already there? Because power must be ceded to government so that it can govern?
- paulryanrogers 4y agoPeople trade a monopoly on violence for security from anarchy and foreign invasion. Yet there are limits, so when the trade off is no longer worth it the people will institute a new government. If a government has super intelligence the power dynamic may shift so far out of balance the people are effectively helpless.
- nradov 4y agoYou can't possibly predict the outcomes with any accuracy. This is total speculation.
- reducesuffering 4y agoExactly. It is like ants predicting humans inventing iPhones
- zarzavat 4y agoYou can say that about any kind of model, can’t you? The point of inventing models is not to predict the future, it’s to better understand the world. The weather app on your phone can’t predict Thursday’s weather. But it can help you know more about Thursday than nothing. You could say that the weather app is “speculating”, indeed it is, so what?
- nradov 4y agoNo, you can't say that about any type of model. Weather prediction models forecasting just a few days into the future can be back tested with years of historical data to measure typical accuracy. No such historical data exists for AGI.