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At this point, I wouldn't give much credibility to anything OpenAI claims about their research plans. The game theory behind AGI research is identical to that
by mrshadowgoose 3y ago
At this point, I wouldn't give much credibility to anything OpenAI claims about their research plans.
The game theory behind AGI research is identical to that of nuclear weapons development. There exists a development gap (the size of which is unknowable ahead of time) where an actor that achieves AGI first, and plays their cards right, can permanently suppress all other AGI research.
Even if one's intentions are completely good, failure to be first could result in never being able to reach the finish line. It's absolutely in OpenAI's interest to conceal critical information, and mislead competing actors into thinking they don't have to move as quickly as they can.
- ChatGTP 3y agoI thought the same thing, they’ve not disclosed anything else, so why would the my be even slightly honest about this ?
- nicky0 3y agoWhen I see comments like this, I wonder about the personal morality of the poster and how they arrived at their worldview. It may be hard to beleive, but there are some advantages to truthfulness in this world.
- ChatGTP 3y agoso you think open ai has been responsible and transparent so far ? You think cruising around Africa and other developing countries basically bribing people to sign up for “world coin” in exchange is trustworthy behaviour ? Sorry I don’t buy this message at all. I’ll stop here but not my kind of person that’s for sure.
- nicky0 3y agoAh, I understand now this is a particular axe you are grinding. You are in to deep for me to engage.
- jazzyjackson 3y agois it not a valid axe to grind?
- nicky0 3y agoHow should I know? It may be valid, but it's already too sharp for mere mortals to get near. This area seems to attract cranks and obsessives. The dialog is often not fruitful.
- ChatGTP 3y agoEnjoy your world coin and zero social mobility.
- SergeAx 3y agoThere are lots of advantages, but it doesn't mean that all actors would automatically stick to the truthfulness. There are also lots of advantages in being untruthful. Evaluate both possibilities is a rational behavior, and definitely not a reason to question one's personal morality.
- patmcc 3y ago>>>The game theory behind AGI research is identical to that of nuclear weapons development... Nuclear powers have not been able to reliably suppress others from creating nuclear weapons. Why would we think the first AGI will suppress all others perfectly?
- mrshadowgoose 3y agoThe first nuclear power (the United States) chose to not. Had they decided to be completely evil, they certainly could have used the threat of nuclear annihilation (and the act of it for non-compliers) to achieve that goal.
- VagueMag 3y agoThe people (and even military personnel) of the United States wouldn't have tolerated capriciously dropping atomic bombs on Moscow three years after we helped them defeat the Nazis. But perhaps something in the nature of AGI will allow its "discoverers" to act more unilaterally evil and with fewer fetters. An army of amoral robots would certainly remove a lot of checks on certain kinds of behavior.
- woeirua 3y agoNot sure I would take that lesson away from history. There were quite a few voices in the US military at the end of WW2 that recognized that peace with the soviets was tenuous at best and wanted to push the nuclear advantage right then. The US was unmatched for 4 years until the Soviets had their first nuclear test. Had they chose to use nuclear weapons, they could have become a global empire and no one could have stopped them.
- SergeAx 3y agoUS didn't need nukes to obliterate USSR in 1945. Just cut it off the lend-lease program and attack on European and Pacific theaters at the same time. They didn't do it because US public won't tolerate attack on yesterday's ally against Hitler.
- imtringued 3y agoWhy would that be the case? If anything you would expect the first iteration of AGI either kept completely secret or end up leaked indirectly or directly negating any benefits. Also AGI without weapons is not a military threat.
- pas 3y agoAGI that can engage in cyberwarfare, propaganda campaigns, and social engineering can achieve some military goals nevertheless.
- citizen_friend 3y agoThe only "game theory" here is trying to convince people your software is good and important, so you can raise money and sell products.