4 ms·

It wasn't a logical conclusion.

by kevinh 4y ago

pvaldes 4y ago
It was the most logical one with the data available at that moment. More data were added later leading to a better understanding of the case. I understand why the police would feel the urge to advertise themselves and say "See? We are smarter than all of those people so we deserve the money", but mocking people that tried to help because their first assumptions were wrong, is not the more productive way to spend their time. People does not have a diviner ball.
- BeetleB 4y ago
  > It was the most logical one with the data available at that moment. Logical and appropriate/reasonable are two distinct entities. I can see two coin tosses, and if they came up heads, it is certainly logical to conclude that the coin is heavily biased. Understanding that the quality of the data is poor and that one probably should suspend judgements until further data is in is a sign of maturity. I've seen this play out over the decades: Hans Reiser, Ellen Pao, etc are common examples.
- nradov 4y ago
  How did people try to "help"? By posting comments on social media?
- vlovich123 4y ago
  The data available says that about 10% of homicides are committed by a stranger. What data are you referring to when you say it was the logical conclusion?
- pb7 4y ago
  There is nothing logical about assuming that a high profile person only in town for a few days would get stabbed multiple times randomly in the middle of a wealthy area at 2:30am on a Monday. It can happen, but no assumptions about it are logical given that most violent crimes are committed by people who know the victim and San Francisco is not remarkable in its rate of violent crime. >See? We are smarter than all of those people The only person I see doing that here is you. It wasn't logical, it was emotional based on preconceptions about the crime in the city.
nemo44x 4y ago
It was pretty logical and if it happened again (random citizen stabbed on the streets of SF) I’d again assume it was probably a mentally ill, desperate drug addict or within that profile. Even if it’s not logical I’d have the same assumption. I’m ok with that. The city has a lot of problems and people don’t feel safe. I’m not saying prison is a great idea but ignoring crime is worse.
- VerminOctopus1 4y ago
  You need to recalibrate your expectations. The majority of murders are not totally random, senseless attacks. Getting murdered by a random junkie is not a common thing.
  - nemo44x 4y ago
    I understand that and it’s my point actually. That many forms of crime have gotten so out of hand there that a guy being randomly murdered, although more unlikely than by someone they know, sounds about right. It’s a story about decay. 8 years ago I would have assumed it was a crime of passion. Today? Probably further decay.

It wasn't a logical conclusion.

by kevinh 4y ago

It wasn't a logical conclusion.

It was the most logical one with the data available at that moment. More data were added later leading to a better understanding of the case. I understand why the police would feel the urge to advertise themselves and say "See? We are smarter than all of those people so we deserve the money", but mocking people that tried to help because their first assumptions were wrong, is not the more productive way to spend their time. People does not have a diviner ball.

BeetleB 4y ago
> It was the most logical one with the data available at that moment. Logical and appropriate/reasonable are two distinct entities. I can see two coin tosses, and if they came up heads, it is certainly logical to conclude that the coin is heavily biased. Understanding that the quality of the data is poor and that one probably should suspend judgements until further data is in is a sign of maturity. I've seen this play out over the decades: Hans Reiser, Ellen Pao, etc are common examples.
nradov 4y ago
How did people try to "help"? By posting comments on social media?
vlovich123 4y ago
The data available says that about 10% of homicides are committed by a stranger. What data are you referring to when you say it was the logical conclusion?
pb7 4y ago
There is nothing logical about assuming that a high profile person only in town for a few days would get stabbed multiple times randomly in the middle of a wealthy area at 2:30am on a Monday. It can happen, but no assumptions about it are logical given that most violent crimes are committed by people who know the victim and San Francisco is not remarkable in its rate of violent crime. >See? We are smarter than all of those people The only person I see doing that here is you. It wasn't logical, it was emotional based on preconceptions about the crime in the city.

nemo44x 4y ago

It was pretty logical and if it happened again (random citizen stabbed on the streets of SF) I’d again assume it was probably a mentally ill, desperate drug addict or within that profile. Even if it’s not logical I’d have the same assumption. I’m ok with that. The city has a lot of problems and people don’t feel safe. I’m not saying prison is a great idea but ignoring crime is worse.

VerminOctopus1 4y ago
You need to recalibrate your expectations. The majority of murders are not totally random, senseless attacks. Getting murdered by a random junkie is not a common thing.
- nemo44x 4y ago
  I understand that and it’s my point actually. That many forms of crime have gotten so out of hand there that a guy being randomly murdered, although more unlikely than by someone they know, sounds about right. It’s a story about decay. 8 years ago I would have assumed it was a crime of passion. Today? Probably further decay.