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The counter argument is that it's a growing market where any early entrants will be lifted with the tide and can probably yield enough profit from spillover hyp
by naillo 4y ago
The counter argument is that it's a growing market where any early entrants will be lifted with the tide and can probably yield enough profit from spillover hype for investors to make their investments back.
- ninkendo 4y ago> can probably yield enough profit from spillover hype for investors to make their investments back. The correct term for this is “pyramid scheme”.
- naillo 4y agoNope
- mc32 4y agoNo, this is more "everyone is selling X, let's get in the business of X". On the other hand, yes, some will miss the boat and lose money.
- ninkendo 4y agoI interpreted “spillover hype” as meaning “more investors coming in in future rounds” (ie pyramid scheme), but it’s possible that’s not what the commenter intended. But if early investors only profit due to late investors pouring money in, that’s by definition a pyramid scheme.
- seydor 4y agoI can already run gpt4xalpaca on my PC, a model that is not-bad-at-all and is completely uncensored (i.e. does things that chatGPT can't do). I think it's true that LLMs are racing to the bottom and will be even more once they can fit as a peripheral to every computer. whoever is investing in this to monopolize has not thought it through
- ethbr0 4y agoThis is a repeat of the early GPU era. It's not the software or hardware that will "win" the race, it's who delivers the packaged end user capability (or centralizes and grabs most of the value along the chain). And end user capability is comprised of hardware + software + connectivity + standardized APIs for building software on top + integration into existing systems. If I were Nvidia, I'd be smiling. They've been here before.
- ttul 4y agoNvidia: just as the sun starts setting on crypto mining, the foundation model boom begins. And in the background of it all, gaming grows without end.
- ethbr0 4y agoIf you've got a choice, sail your ship on a rising tide! And if you can spread the risk over multiple rising tides, so much the better! My dad told me a quip once: "It's amazing how much luckier well prepared people are."
- simonster 4y agoImagine you're a tech company that pays software engineers $200K/year. There is a free open-source coding model that can double their productivity, but a commercial solution yields a 2.1x productivity improvement for $5000 annually per developer. Which do you pick?
- CoastalCoder 4y agoNot sure if parent had a certain answer in mind, but my answer is OSS because (1) I can try it out whenever I want, and (2) I don't have the vexing experience of convincing the employer to purchase it.
- f6v 4y agoThat’s the endless «build vs buy” argument. And countless businesses are buying.
- brookst 4y agoThat’s an argument, but I don’t buy it. Models are a commodity. You don’t get VC valuations and returns from raising $5B for a grain startup. The application of AI to business problems will be lucrative, but the models are just a tool and the money will come from the domain-specific data (i.e. user and business data), which Microsoft, Google, and even Meta are positioned for. Having a slightly better model but no customer data or domain expertise doesn’t seem like a great recipe. Then again it’s AI, so there’s more uncertainty than the commodity market. Maybe Anthropic will surprise and I’ll be as wrong about this as I was about OS/2 being the future. But I’m very skeptical.
- jerrre 4y agoI don't think the grain market is growing as fast as the AI market
- aunty_helen 4y agoDon’t confuse the ai market with the foundational llm model market. Think of LLMs as the understanding component in the brain, once you can understand instructions and what actions need to happen from those instruction you’re done. The rest is integrations, the arms legs and eyes of langchain. Then memory and knowledge from semantic search, vector databases and input token limits.
- ukuina 4y agoThis is the real answer. The LLM is but the core of the entire ecosystem. Just like how MLOps is 99% of the work, choosing an LLM is 1% of the effort in the final product.
- jelder 4y agoWhat do they have besides an admittedly very cool name?
- p1esk 4y agoAnthropic is currently the only company that can compete with OpenAI (because they have comparable expertise). The rest (Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc) are still pretty far behind.
- moomin 4y agoThis approach didn’t work for Docker.
- dmix 4y agoPlus first-mover advantage has consistently shown to not be a legitimate strategy as there are a ton of cases where the first winner gets taken over by a new entrant once the market matures (Friendster being the classic example). Often the later companies learn from the mistakes of the first play. R&D heavy markets might have some different characteristics but it's still way too early to say with AI.