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I am not convinced we have cracked AGI. I just would no longer make a large bet that we have not. We won’t know until an AGI actually starts to act like one. I
by api 4y ago
I am not convinced we have cracked AGI. I just would no longer make a large bet that we have not.
We won’t know until an AGI actually starts to act like one. In other words we won’t know until we know and then we are suddenly there.
That doesn’t mean I’m on the doomwagon. I feel kind of weird and contrarian but I am just not that afraid of AGI. For the foreseeable future AGI should be much more afraid of us. Imagine having us for gods. (I actually am a bit concerned that we will accidentally put a sentient mind in hell without knowing what we are doing. Would it know how to tell us? Would we care?)
As far as human survival I’m afraid of whatever it is that is going to get us that nobody including myself is thinking about. That’s not AGI. That’s the alien weapon for which Oumuamua was a spent deceleration stage. (To make up something random. It probably isn’t that.)
I disagree about physical limits with EVs. We are not near the physical limits of battery energy density. From what I have read a 2000 mile EV may be possible, albeit quite far out. But it was just a random contemporary example.
- nemo44x 4y agoFwiw, a majority at OpenAI believes GPT5 will achieve AGI, depending on how you define it, according to Sam Altman.
- HopenHeyHi 4y agoIt is hard to falsify as they are not very open but I believe the keyword here is believe. It is faith/intuition based. Certainly fertile ground for exploration but people who argue back and forth about it remind of the "are we alone in the universe" conversations.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Avicebron 4y agoAnd I'm sure him saying that has nothing to do with marketing
- nemo44x 4y agoTotally good point and fair to be critical here. He is the CEO after all.
- skepticATX 4y agoDid he actually say this? Do you have a source?
- ben_w 4y ago"Depending on how you define it" is too load-bearing in that claim; there are non-crazy ways to define each of those initials such that 3.5 is also a general intelligence.