6 ms·

Chinese investment in Afghanistan’s lithium sector (2022)

44 points by 1970-01-01 4y ago

newsclues 4y ago
Afghanistan has brought numerous superpowers to their knees (Britain, Soviet Union, American), it will be interesting to see if the same thing occurs to the Chinese.
- squarefoot 4y ago
  It won't. Investment and occupation aren't the same thing. And we (as westerners) better be prepared to think seriously about Africa, before China, which already started the process, turns a good part of it into one of their bigger development playgrounds.
  - boeingUH60 4y ago
    China loaned a lot of money to my country (Nigeria). Most of it was spent on bogus infrastructure projects with little yield and siphoned into various levels, and now our debt servicing literally exceeds revenue [1]. A typical African country...useless and corrupt. 1- https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nwest/544216-nigeria-broke-as-debt-payment-exceeds-revenue.html?tztc=1 https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nwest/544216-nigeria...
    - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
      This is not some Chinese invented tactic. China is now doing what the Western powers did to them centuries ago (remember the opium wars). This is nothing new, the same thing happened in Eastern Europe after the fall of comunism. My country took on many bad loans form the IMF, World Bank, etc. and all that borrowed money went into useless projects of the oligarch owned companies, and to pay off the massive debts, the country was forced to sell of various state assets (oil & gas fields, mines, etc) to western owned enterprises. It's a form of legal economic colonialism that doesn't involve firing a single bullet. We lend you money we know you won't be able to pay back because we're doing the deal with your corrupt leaders who also get a cut for indebting their country. And when the collection day comes and you can't pay, we'll take everything of value you have and your taxpayers will have to work their butts off to pay the loans. Genius strategy. China is just the latest player to enter this game but the rich west has been playing it for much longer, like Belgium using slaves to extract minerals in Congo.
      - NicoJuicy 4y ago
        Opium wars is > 150 years ago, the world has changed a lot since then, lol. We have electricity by now, my opinion takes into account post internet age > 1990. IMF does conditional loans, so it would ( in theory) improve the country, because something is not going well atm. ( Eg. Greece). > Greece has repaid ahead of schedule 2.7 billion euros ($2.87 billion) of loans owed to euro zone countries under the first bailout it received during its decade-long debt crisis, a finance ministry official told Reuters on Thursday.15 dec 2022 China loans money and uses their own workers with that money to export their excess infrastructure building capacity. The country itselve doesn't have any benefit for local workers, only China benefits. All those projects presented with grand prestige by China 5-10 years ago are never mentioned anymore. Nigeria, Pakistan, ... It's not hard to see why either.
      - throwaway2990 4y ago
        > My country took on many bad loans form the IMF, World Bank, etc. and all that borrowed money went into useless projects of the oligarch owned companies, and to pay off the massive debts, the country was forced to sell of various state assets (oil & gas fields, mines, etc) to western owned enterprises. IMF / World banks loans are only given based on various factors which in include the ability to pay the loan back. They don’t take assets. This is what happened with Sri Lanka. The IMF and World Bank refused loans because they deemed the risk high and chance of loans being paid back low. China did the loans at a higher rate with projects being won by Chinese companies and forfeit of loans being given assets for 100 year leases. You can try justify it anyway you want. China loans are debt traps. Plain and simple.
        ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        >They don’t take assets. They don't take assets but to get money, they make you sell your assets to the western conglomerates of the western governments they're associated with. Got rich oil & gas fields? Great, because BP, Chevron, Halliburton, Total, Shell and Exxon are waiting in line to buy them below market value. You don't know how deep the corruption rabbit hole goes here. >Sri Lanka Sri Lanka was already too broke to be worth it. They have no natural resources for the international loan-sharks to profit off of. China can profit, not monetarily, but they can set up military bases around the Asia-Pacific to challenge the US's position in the region. >China loans are debt traps. Plain and simple. IMF & World Bank loans aren't that much different, unless you drank their cool aid. They're still debt traps for the population of those countries no matter how you try to spin it. I know this because I've lived through it and my relative living there are still paying the price. Have you?
    - alephnerd 4y ago
      The whole point of such investments is to be siphoned. You can't directly pay a bribe (do it enough and at a large enough size and you open yourself to FCPA violations which block access to Western markets by making you toxic and piercing the corporate veil) but you can always loop contracting companies owned by the political elite of your country. This is why Chinese construction consortiums in Sri Lanka built infrastructure in Rajapraksa's home district and why a Chinese consortium bought a 49% stake in Hondutel - Honduras's primary mobile provider, which is owned by the family of the husband (and former President) of the current President of Honduras. American companies used to do this as well (eg. According to a close relative, DEC's India operation would always use MSPs affiliated with senior Indian Air Force officials to land deals. When the US cracked down on such tactics with the amended FCPA in 1998, those contracts went to Israeli companies instead even after the Kargil sanctions were lifted).
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    Chinese investment is notable because it is new, but the western world is still heavily invested in Africa as well, and has been for a long time.
  - 650REDHAIR 4y ago
    That’s easy to say now, but when in-fighting and an eventual civil war ripple across Afghanistan China will need to either protect their investment with boots on the ground or lose their investment.
    - fspeech 4y ago
      Like someone else pointed out in the thread, it was just MOU at this stage. But if past was any guide, they would rather lose their investment than putting boots on the ground (cue Libya, Syria etc).
- zozin 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - 10xDev 4y ago
    >The total death toll for American service men in Afghanistan was lower than the murder rate in many American cities. Well that's good to hear. I was worried more people in the military at war were dying over civilians. /s
alephnerd 4y ago
If you didn't read the article - "American anxiety surrounding China’s potential moves in Afghanistan’s mining sector may be misplaced, for now" There's a solid chance Afghanistan enters a civil war this year or next with the internal divisions between the Kandahar clique and the Haqqani clique starting to become violent, and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (in reality ex-Taliban from the Mehsud biradari who split due to internal conflicts with the Haqqani biradari) pushing the Taliban out of FATA adjacent regions.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  Given its volatility, this is a risky move by the Chinese. Maybe it’s just a bet with a corresponding hedge somewhere else.
  - alephnerd 4y ago
    There is no investment other than an MoU. Any foreign organization in Afghanistan (in reality Kabul) is operating on a bare bones capacity, and anyone who had the knowhow in Afghanistan has taken asylum, emigrated legally or illegally, or is in the processes of either asylum or emigration.
    - selimthegrim 4y ago
      There’s probably still enough copper at Mes Aynak to make it worthwhile
      - alephnerd 4y ago
        There most certainly is! But it's on hold right now and the security situation in Logar seems tenuous. If Mes Aynek actually happens, then Lithium mining would probably start in 10 years too, but other regional rivals recognize that as well (it's telling that India has given a Terrorist designation to just about every major extremist Sunni org in AfPak except the TTP and Jundallah)
photochemsyn 4y ago
It's worth going back a decade and looking at US plans for Afghanistan's mineral wealth during Obama's first term in office, which coincided with increasing US military personnel in the country to 100,000. Department of Defense report pointing to several trillion dollars worth of minerals (2010): https://www.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-mining-idUSLDE65O0FS20100625 https://www.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-mining-idUSLDE65... State Department plan for "New Silk Road" (2011): https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/11/clintons-dubious-plan-to-save-afghanistan-with-a-new-silk-road/247760/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/11/cl... The latter was also about promoting the TAPI pipeline route for moving Central Asian oil and gas directly to the Indian Ocean, a project once meant largely for Chevron and Exxon (major operators in Kazakhstan) exports but which now appears to have been taken over by China: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-joint-statement-signals-revival-of-tapi-gas-pipeline-via-af-pak-to-india-101648804560322.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-joint-statem... China's approach to obtaining deals in Afghanistan appears to be strictly economic and diplomatic; there are no Chinese soldiers in the region.
- alephnerd 4y ago
  TAPI is a pipe dream (pun very much intended). It's been a Pakistani national security goal since the 1990s. As such, it's not surprising that Pakistan's closest ally announced their interest.
- josephcsible 4y ago
  Could the American plan be described as "use military force to suppress the terrorist group, and then give money to the legitimate government in exchange for minerals", and the Chinese plan as "give money to the terrorist group in exchange for minerals"?
  - xtian 4y ago
    It’s incredible that an illegitimate government can take over the entire country in ten days whereas the legitimate one wasn’t sustainable after twenty years of military and economic support.
pyuser583 4y ago
I saw an interview a while back with a mineralogist discussing Afghanistans natural resources. The summary: it doesn’t matter what Afghanistan has because the political situation is a mess. It’s not about who controls Kabul. It’s the social structure of the entire country.
- alephnerd 4y ago
  Especially because the lithium deposits are concentrated in Logar province, which other Pakhtuns stereotype as hicks (which is saying something). It's also adjacent to ISKP's and Pakistani Taliban's heartland - Waziristan and Kohat.
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    There are a lot of Pak Army facilities in Kohat and a major road tunnel important for Belt and Road stuff, it’s hardly BFE.
    - alephnerd 4y ago
      Makes sense! Ik there was always a military presence in Kohat Agency since the British era (Battle of Saranghai for example) but was there a significant increase in presence in the leadup to Zarb-e-Azb, or were levels maintained?
      - selimthegrim 4y ago
        Saragarhi?
        alephnerd 4y ago
        I misspelled Saragarhi. It was a garrison slightly north of Thal. I think it was renamed Fort Gulistan after the 3rd Anglo-Afghan War.
- tuyguntn 4y ago
  I want to challenge your ideas here. > It’s the social structure of the entire country. Isn't U.S, Soviet Union and Great Britain who ruined this country for a last century to gain geopolitical space in the middle of Asia? It became mess after these countries invaded them, let's see if they can recover from that in upcoming 50 years, if they can, we might see another fast growing economy with their resources
JEDI-HACKER 4y ago
[dead]

44 points by 1970-01-01 4y ago

Afghanistan has brought numerous superpowers to their knees (Britain, Soviet Union, American), it will be interesting to see if the same thing occurs to the Chinese.

squarefoot 4y ago
It won't. Investment and occupation aren't the same thing. And we (as westerners) better be prepared to think seriously about Africa, before China, which already started the process, turns a good part of it into one of their bigger development playgrounds.
- boeingUH60 4y ago
  China loaned a lot of money to my country (Nigeria). Most of it was spent on bogus infrastructure projects with little yield and siphoned into various levels, and now our debt servicing literally exceeds revenue [1]. A typical African country...useless and corrupt. 1- https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nwest/544216-nigeria-broke-as-debt-payment-exceeds-revenue.html?tztc=1 https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nwest/544216-nigeria...
  - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
    This is not some Chinese invented tactic. China is now doing what the Western powers did to them centuries ago (remember the opium wars). This is nothing new, the same thing happened in Eastern Europe after the fall of comunism. My country took on many bad loans form the IMF, World Bank, etc. and all that borrowed money went into useless projects of the oligarch owned companies, and to pay off the massive debts, the country was forced to sell of various state assets (oil & gas fields, mines, etc) to western owned enterprises. It's a form of legal economic colonialism that doesn't involve firing a single bullet. We lend you money we know you won't be able to pay back because we're doing the deal with your corrupt leaders who also get a cut for indebting their country. And when the collection day comes and you can't pay, we'll take everything of value you have and your taxpayers will have to work their butts off to pay the loans. Genius strategy. China is just the latest player to enter this game but the rich west has been playing it for much longer, like Belgium using slaves to extract minerals in Congo.
    - NicoJuicy 4y ago
      Opium wars is > 150 years ago, the world has changed a lot since then, lol. We have electricity by now, my opinion takes into account post internet age > 1990. IMF does conditional loans, so it would ( in theory) improve the country, because something is not going well atm. ( Eg. Greece). > Greece has repaid ahead of schedule 2.7 billion euros ($2.87 billion) of loans owed to euro zone countries under the first bailout it received during its decade-long debt crisis, a finance ministry official told Reuters on Thursday.15 dec 2022 China loans money and uses their own workers with that money to export their excess infrastructure building capacity. The country itselve doesn't have any benefit for local workers, only China benefits. All those projects presented with grand prestige by China 5-10 years ago are never mentioned anymore. Nigeria, Pakistan, ... It's not hard to see why either.
    - throwaway2990 4y ago
      > My country took on many bad loans form the IMF, World Bank, etc. and all that borrowed money went into useless projects of the oligarch owned companies, and to pay off the massive debts, the country was forced to sell of various state assets (oil & gas fields, mines, etc) to western owned enterprises. IMF / World banks loans are only given based on various factors which in include the ability to pay the loan back. They don’t take assets. This is what happened with Sri Lanka. The IMF and World Bank refused loans because they deemed the risk high and chance of loans being paid back low. China did the loans at a higher rate with projects being won by Chinese companies and forfeit of loans being given assets for 100 year leases. You can try justify it anyway you want. China loans are debt traps. Plain and simple.
      - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        >They don’t take assets. They don't take assets but to get money, they make you sell your assets to the western conglomerates of the western governments they're associated with. Got rich oil & gas fields? Great, because BP, Chevron, Halliburton, Total, Shell and Exxon are waiting in line to buy them below market value. You don't know how deep the corruption rabbit hole goes here. >Sri Lanka Sri Lanka was already too broke to be worth it. They have no natural resources for the international loan-sharks to profit off of. China can profit, not monetarily, but they can set up military bases around the Asia-Pacific to challenge the US's position in the region. >China loans are debt traps. Plain and simple. IMF & World Bank loans aren't that much different, unless you drank their cool aid. They're still debt traps for the population of those countries no matter how you try to spin it. I know this because I've lived through it and my relative living there are still paying the price. Have you?
  - alephnerd 4y ago
    The whole point of such investments is to be siphoned. You can't directly pay a bribe (do it enough and at a large enough size and you open yourself to FCPA violations which block access to Western markets by making you toxic and piercing the corporate veil) but you can always loop contracting companies owned by the political elite of your country. This is why Chinese construction consortiums in Sri Lanka built infrastructure in Rajapraksa's home district and why a Chinese consortium bought a 49% stake in Hondutel - Honduras's primary mobile provider, which is owned by the family of the husband (and former President) of the current President of Honduras. American companies used to do this as well (eg. According to a close relative, DEC's India operation would always use MSPs affiliated with senior Indian Air Force officials to land deals. When the US cracked down on such tactics with the amended FCPA in 1998, those contracts went to Israeli companies instead even after the Kargil sanctions were lifted).
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  Chinese investment is notable because it is new, but the western world is still heavily invested in Africa as well, and has been for a long time.
- 650REDHAIR 4y ago
  That’s easy to say now, but when in-fighting and an eventual civil war ripple across Afghanistan China will need to either protect their investment with boots on the ground or lose their investment.
  - fspeech 4y ago
    Like someone else pointed out in the thread, it was just MOU at this stage. But if past was any guide, they would rather lose their investment than putting boots on the ground (cue Libya, Syria etc).
zozin 4y ago
[flagged]
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- 10xDev 4y ago
  >The total death toll for American service men in Afghanistan was lower than the murder rate in many American cities. Well that's good to hear. I was worried more people in the military at war were dying over civilians. /s

alephnerd 4y ago

If you didn't read the article - "American anxiety surrounding China’s potential moves in Afghanistan’s mining sector may be misplaced, for now" There's a solid chance Afghanistan enters a civil war this year or next with the internal divisions between the Kandahar clique and the Haqqani clique starting to become violent, and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (in reality ex-Taliban from the Mehsud biradari who split due to internal conflicts with the Haqqani biradari) pushing the Taliban out of FATA adjacent regions.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago
Given its volatility, this is a risky move by the Chinese. Maybe it’s just a bet with a corresponding hedge somewhere else.
- alephnerd 4y ago
  There is no investment other than an MoU. Any foreign organization in Afghanistan (in reality Kabul) is operating on a bare bones capacity, and anyone who had the knowhow in Afghanistan has taken asylum, emigrated legally or illegally, or is in the processes of either asylum or emigration.
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    There’s probably still enough copper at Mes Aynak to make it worthwhile
    - alephnerd 4y ago
      There most certainly is! But it's on hold right now and the security situation in Logar seems tenuous. If Mes Aynek actually happens, then Lithium mining would probably start in 10 years too, but other regional rivals recognize that as well (it's telling that India has given a Terrorist designation to just about every major extremist Sunni org in AfPak except the TTP and Jundallah)

photochemsyn 4y ago

It's worth going back a decade and looking at US plans for Afghanistan's mineral wealth during Obama's first term in office, which coincided with increasing US military personnel in the country to 100,000. Department of Defense report pointing to several trillion dollars worth of minerals (2010): https://www.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-mining-idUSLDE65O0FS20100625 https://www.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-mining-idUSLDE65... State Department plan for "New Silk Road" (2011): https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/11/clintons-dubious-plan-to-save-afghanistan-with-a-new-silk-road/247760/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/11/cl... The latter was also about promoting the TAPI pipeline route for moving Central Asian oil and gas directly to the Indian Ocean, a project once meant largely for Chevron and Exxon (major operators in Kazakhstan) exports but which now appears to have been taken over by China: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-joint-statement-signals-revival-of-tapi-gas-pipeline-via-af-pak-to-india-101648804560322.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-joint-statem... China's approach to obtaining deals in Afghanistan appears to be strictly economic and diplomatic; there are no Chinese soldiers in the region.

alephnerd 4y ago
TAPI is a pipe dream (pun very much intended). It's been a Pakistani national security goal since the 1990s. As such, it's not surprising that Pakistan's closest ally announced their interest.
josephcsible 4y ago
Could the American plan be described as "use military force to suppress the terrorist group, and then give money to the legitimate government in exchange for minerals", and the Chinese plan as "give money to the terrorist group in exchange for minerals"?
- xtian 4y ago
  It’s incredible that an illegitimate government can take over the entire country in ten days whereas the legitimate one wasn’t sustainable after twenty years of military and economic support.

pyuser583 4y ago

I saw an interview a while back with a mineralogist discussing Afghanistans natural resources. The summary: it doesn’t matter what Afghanistan has because the political situation is a mess. It’s not about who controls Kabul. It’s the social structure of the entire country.

alephnerd 4y ago
Especially because the lithium deposits are concentrated in Logar province, which other Pakhtuns stereotype as hicks (which is saying something). It's also adjacent to ISKP's and Pakistani Taliban's heartland - Waziristan and Kohat.
- selimthegrim 4y ago
  There are a lot of Pak Army facilities in Kohat and a major road tunnel important for Belt and Road stuff, it’s hardly BFE.
  - alephnerd 4y ago
    Makes sense! Ik there was always a military presence in Kohat Agency since the British era (Battle of Saranghai for example) but was there a significant increase in presence in the leadup to Zarb-e-Azb, or were levels maintained?
    - selimthegrim 4y ago
      Saragarhi?
      - alephnerd 4y ago
        I misspelled Saragarhi. It was a garrison slightly north of Thal. I think it was renamed Fort Gulistan after the 3rd Anglo-Afghan War.
tuyguntn 4y ago
I want to challenge your ideas here. > It’s the social structure of the entire country. Isn't U.S, Soviet Union and Great Britain who ruined this country for a last century to gain geopolitical space in the middle of Asia? It became mess after these countries invaded them, let's see if they can recover from that in upcoming 50 years, if they can, we might see another fast growing economy with their resources

JEDI-HACKER 4y ago

[dead]