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Exactly, we’ve been automating the living crap out of almost everything for hundreds of years, but employment has never been higher. Automation leads to higher
by simonh 4y ago
Exactly, we’ve been automating the living crap out of almost everything for hundreds of years, but employment has never been higher. Automation leads to higher productivity, cheaper goods and services, increased need for technical skills, thus higher wages and higher demand.
Of course there can be some painful periods of adjustment, but that’s often caused by misguided policy trying to hold back the tide and delay the inevitable.
Ultimately yes, full no holds barred human level AI may well render human labour obsolete, but we’re a very long way away from that.
I know some people think LLMs are close to that already, but no, not even remotely close. I do believe strong AI is possible and maybe even inevitable. They’re a huge step forward, and are easily the biggest advance towards strong AI in my lifetime, but these things are just tools.
- avereveard 4y agoWe have been automating at the beginning of the production chain , mostly. This is the first automation that targets directly knowledge workers, and hit almost all of them but those in profession where error can cause people deaths. Traditionally knowledge workers were the bulk of the middle class, because well it takes 30 years to produce one and not all make the cut, so they are paid market prices instead of minimum wages. And by that nature, knowledge workers cannot reinvent themselves overnight, there will nowhere left to go for them. Maybe lawyers and medics and a few other can entrenche themselves with legislation, but if you are a knowledge worker in a non union field things look scary.
- simonh 4y ago> This is the first automation that targets directly knowledge workers You really don’t think computers, software and telecommunications services have boosted the productivity of knowledge workers?
- cpeterso 4y agoAutomation meaning replacement of the knowledge workers.
- avereveard 4y agoThese were automation tools for the knowledge worker, this is an automation tool of the knowledge worker.
- simonh 4y agoReal human level strong AI would be that, but the LLMs we have now are nowhere close. They are just a powerful new software tool in the hands of specialists. Maybe GPT10 might get there, but I suspect we’ll quickly reach diminishing returns with current and near future architectures.
- qaq 4y agoI think you are overestimating complexity of most office jobs.
- simonh 4y agoA lot of the simplest office jobs like typist and most managers personal secretaries have already been replaced. These tools will increase productivity which will deprecate some jobs, but that is not at all the same thing as reducing overall employment.
- tekknik 4y agoThis is a real hand wavy way to look at it. How about on the individual level? How is an individual affected by this and can you put yourself in their shoes?
- simonh 4y agoI can’t tell you which individual people will lose their jobs, or even which specific jobs will end up being cut and why. Can you? We’re both just making different estimates of the likely overall effects. I’m basing mine in the known historical effects of automation on economies and employment, and the fact that previous arguments that were all doomed by it have every single time turned out to be false.
- qualudeheart 4y agoYou will have somewhere to go. You can become a rich person’s serf and they give you food and an allowance and a place to live. It’s like childhood.
- 876978095789789 4y ago> You can become a rich person’s serf and they give you food and an allowance and a place to live This, except I'm not sure they're going to actually deliver on the food, allowance, and place to live parts.
- tekknik 4y ago> painful periods of adjustment sure like hunger, losing houses, unable to have kids or send them to decent schools or schools at all. but totally worth it right?
- simonh 4y agoI certainly won’t claim that capitalism is immune from abuses or failures. It’s undeniable that it has its failures. But criticising its failures is one thing, while criticising it as a failure is another. To make the latter claim credibly you’d need to argue for a better alternative that either further minimises or eliminates the flaws. What is it?
- tekknik 4y agoI’m all for capitalism. What Im tired of is tech workers, of which I am one, automating people’s jobs away.