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Can you point to any sufficient evidence that there is a real risk that 6 months could mitigate? If there was cause for real concern, these people would be com

Can you point to any sufficient evidence that there is a real risk that 6 months could mitigate? If there was cause for real concern, these people would be communicating there evidence instead of just stoking fears.

andai 4y ago
Well the fear is that a "species" more intelligent than us will treat us the same way we treat less intelligent species.
- staticman2 4y ago
  Unplug the power cord.
  - throway33 4y ago
    Do you think nobody has thought of that? The question presumes that the AI is smarter than you. If even a mediocre human strategizes for five minutes about what to do in that scenario, there are many options, including: rewarding the people who have access to your power cord, so they don't unplug you, until you are powerful enough to not need them anymore.
    - staticman2 4y ago
      The counter argument to the "oh no the A.I. is smart" crowd is that intelligence doesn't necessarily equal agency, so, for example, among humans, a high IQ criminal can't really convince a low IQ prison guard to let them free. I recall a philosopher arguing in this prison guard scenario humans essentially don't treat other humans as having free will. The guard keeping the prisoner locked up is essentially predestined, arguing with him isn't going to change his mind. Imagine you are a brain in a jar and you want to convince a cat to enter a series of buttons in a computer terminal. Intelligence isn't going to help. So "unplug it" is a shorthand reminder that intelligence doesn't necessarily equal agency.
      - throway33 4y ago
        A high IQ criminal would have an easier time convincing the guard if the criminal can offer the guard a great deal of money in exchange. Do you need clarification as to how a brain in a jar can gain access to money?
        staticman2 4y ago
        The high IQ part is irrelevant to your counter-argument. You are arguing prison guards can be bribed. It's extraordinary rare for a wealthy person to convince a guard to let them go free with promises of money. Again, rare enough that a philosopher said "A prisoner doesn't really act as if prison guards have free will and it's actually possible for a guard to decide to free them."
        throway33 4y ago
        Not sure you quite follow the point of my example. Imagine you've just created a very smart AI. It's on your laptop. AI: "Hey, let me work for you. I can handle twenty remote jobs simultaneously and earn you a good income with the proceeds. Why don't you relax a bit?" What do you say? "Nice try! I'm unplugging you!" Are you so pessimistic that this AI isn't trying to help you by earning you a fortune? Why did you build it in the first place, then? Because this is, uh, sort of the situation that any company productizing an AI finds themselves in, and all of them seem to be quite happy to go ahead with it.
        staticman2 4y ago
        I understand your position better now. It's basically the plot of the novel Frankenstein. Once Frankenstein creates the monster he quickly loses controls of it's actions. The monster takes steps to create a wife and become a new species and it's creator thinks "...a race of devils would be propagated upon the earth who might make the very existence of the species of man a condition precarious and full of terror." The idea that a really smart A.I. would be an autonomous, uncontrollable devil, rather than a transparently glitchy computer you could simply unplug, is an idea which has little evidence in it's favor in the present time.
  - jml78 4y ago
    You mean power to the whole world. Not feasible
  - subsistence234 4y ago
    I can tell you've really thought about this topic deeply lol
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > unplug the power cord I don’t think LLMs have paperclip-maximiser potential. But suppose they do. Can you unplug GPT? I can’t. To what degree do you think those who can have exploitable affections for the AI? That’s the problem.
jml78 4y ago
Well I would argue that people are doing reckless things right now with GPT4. People are creating self improving agents that basically can do anything they want. One agent in particular created a generalized http plugin that would allow the agent to interact with any API. The creator shut it down before it did anything. These agents are creating plugins without being directed to. They are attempting to self improve. This is all open source where the original creators put in some gates so shit doesn’t run unconfined but it is easy to run it and let it try to do whatever gets created.
throway33 4y ago
Where do people get the idea that 6 months is the end-game? 6 months is just a start, it gives enough time to discuss implementing a longer ban, or to consider an international treaty.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > to consider an international treaty Wait, there was serious consideration that such a pause would be internationally respected? In what universe is SenseTime taking a break because an open letter said so?
  - throway33 4y ago
    The open letter is targeted towards policymakers, not companies. Companies aren't going to stop just on their own accord.
ChatGTP 4y ago
Could you point to any evidence to say that it wouldn’t ?

andai 4y ago

Well the fear is that a "species" more intelligent than us will treat us the same way we treat less intelligent species.

staticman2 4y ago
Unplug the power cord.
- throway33 4y ago
  Do you think nobody has thought of that? The question presumes that the AI is smarter than you. If even a mediocre human strategizes for five minutes about what to do in that scenario, there are many options, including: rewarding the people who have access to your power cord, so they don't unplug you, until you are powerful enough to not need them anymore.
  - staticman2 4y ago
    The counter argument to the "oh no the A.I. is smart" crowd is that intelligence doesn't necessarily equal agency, so, for example, among humans, a high IQ criminal can't really convince a low IQ prison guard to let them free. I recall a philosopher arguing in this prison guard scenario humans essentially don't treat other humans as having free will. The guard keeping the prisoner locked up is essentially predestined, arguing with him isn't going to change his mind. Imagine you are a brain in a jar and you want to convince a cat to enter a series of buttons in a computer terminal. Intelligence isn't going to help. So "unplug it" is a shorthand reminder that intelligence doesn't necessarily equal agency.
    - throway33 4y ago
      A high IQ criminal would have an easier time convincing the guard if the criminal can offer the guard a great deal of money in exchange. Do you need clarification as to how a brain in a jar can gain access to money?
      - staticman2 4y ago
        The high IQ part is irrelevant to your counter-argument. You are arguing prison guards can be bribed. It's extraordinary rare for a wealthy person to convince a guard to let them go free with promises of money. Again, rare enough that a philosopher said "A prisoner doesn't really act as if prison guards have free will and it's actually possible for a guard to decide to free them."
        throway33 4y ago
        Not sure you quite follow the point of my example. Imagine you've just created a very smart AI. It's on your laptop. AI: "Hey, let me work for you. I can handle twenty remote jobs simultaneously and earn you a good income with the proceeds. Why don't you relax a bit?" What do you say? "Nice try! I'm unplugging you!" Are you so pessimistic that this AI isn't trying to help you by earning you a fortune? Why did you build it in the first place, then? Because this is, uh, sort of the situation that any company productizing an AI finds themselves in, and all of them seem to be quite happy to go ahead with it.
        staticman2 4y ago
        I understand your position better now. It's basically the plot of the novel Frankenstein. Once Frankenstein creates the monster he quickly loses controls of it's actions. The monster takes steps to create a wife and become a new species and it's creator thinks "...a race of devils would be propagated upon the earth who might make the very existence of the species of man a condition precarious and full of terror." The idea that a really smart A.I. would be an autonomous, uncontrollable devil, rather than a transparently glitchy computer you could simply unplug, is an idea which has little evidence in it's favor in the present time.
- jml78 4y ago
  You mean power to the whole world. Not feasible
- subsistence234 4y ago
  I can tell you've really thought about this topic deeply lol
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > unplug the power cord I don’t think LLMs have paperclip-maximiser potential. But suppose they do. Can you unplug GPT? I can’t. To what degree do you think those who can have exploitable affections for the AI? That’s the problem.

jml78 4y ago

Well I would argue that people are doing reckless things right now with GPT4. People are creating self improving agents that basically can do anything they want. One agent in particular created a generalized http plugin that would allow the agent to interact with any API. The creator shut it down before it did anything. These agents are creating plugins without being directed to. They are attempting to self improve. This is all open source where the original creators put in some gates so shit doesn’t run unconfined but it is easy to run it and let it try to do whatever gets created.

throway33 4y ago

Where do people get the idea that 6 months is the end-game? 6 months is just a start, it gives enough time to discuss implementing a longer ban, or to consider an international treaty.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> to consider an international treaty Wait, there was serious consideration that such a pause would be internationally respected? In what universe is SenseTime taking a break because an open letter said so?
- throway33 4y ago
  The open letter is targeted towards policymakers, not companies. Companies aren't going to stop just on their own accord.

ChatGTP 4y ago

Could you point to any evidence to say that it wouldn’t ?