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That's more likely for the next winter; this one was very mild and gas storage was filled to 90%+ in advance.

by bitL 4y ago

hnaccount_rng 4y ago
We are _still_ at 60+. We’ll absolutely be back at 90+% before next winter. And there will be a significant number of replaced heaters. On the other hand. This winter was exceptionally mild. But on balance. Next winter should be _significantly_ easier to deal with than last (or more likely: with less world-wide side effects)
- Scoundreller 4y ago
  > And there will be a significant number of replaced heaters. Will there? On a global level, how much can heat pump production output go up in 12 months? Though I could see Europe bid up supply over others. Wood stoves I could see a quicker boost in production capacity.
  - nielsole 4y ago
    Just rough numbers of the top of my head: heaters get replaced after around 20 years as is required by e.g. German law. Gas/heat pump has an around 50/50 split for new installations. That would be around 2.5 percent reduction in gas consumption per year. Less affluent EU countries likely have lower numbers.
  - hnaccount_rng 4y ago
    IIRC we (Germany) should be getting about heat pump installations of about 1% of the heater installation base in Germany this year [0]. Add to that the number of replacement units [1] and the switch in grid scale units (there are a number of waste heat to Fernwärme projects) I would expect a reduction of 5-10% in the reliance on gas compared to 2022. It’s not going to change the game completely, but it makes the situation much simpler. Add to that the experience we gained this year, and I would be extremely surprised if we have to resort to “outbid everyone in August and September on the worldwide LNG market”, which is basically what we did last year (to the point of having ships idling of our coast because all storage capacity was full..). I’m not saying that we don’t need to buy gas on the international markets, just that next winter will be easier to manage than this one. (And this one really wasn’t that hard either.) Which should be a good thing for the rest of the world market too [0] well really between Nov 22 and Oct23, but that’s relevant for the difference in gas consumption in the next heating period [1] though it’s entirely anecdotal, but a number of people have replaced their old gas unit this year already. Don’t think that’s overly smart as an idea. But replacing a 30 year old unit with a new one does decrease fuel consumption somewhat
- bitL 4y ago
  60%+ might be due to industry going bankrupt/decreasing gas consumption as well. Many chemical plants basically stopped since gas prices exploded which will lead to pharma/fertilizer shortages. We'll see what the future holds soon.

That's more likely for the next winter; this one was very mild and gas storage was filled to 90%+ in advance.

by bitL 4y ago

That's more likely for the next winter; this one was very mild and gas storage was filled to 90%+ in advance.

We are _still_ at 60+. We’ll absolutely be back at 90+% before next winter. And there will be a significant number of replaced heaters. On the other hand. This winter was exceptionally mild. But on balance. Next winter should be _significantly_ easier to deal with than last (or more likely: with less world-wide side effects)

Scoundreller 4y ago
> And there will be a significant number of replaced heaters. Will there? On a global level, how much can heat pump production output go up in 12 months? Though I could see Europe bid up supply over others. Wood stoves I could see a quicker boost in production capacity.
- nielsole 4y ago
  Just rough numbers of the top of my head: heaters get replaced after around 20 years as is required by e.g. German law. Gas/heat pump has an around 50/50 split for new installations. That would be around 2.5 percent reduction in gas consumption per year. Less affluent EU countries likely have lower numbers.
- hnaccount_rng 4y ago
  IIRC we (Germany) should be getting about heat pump installations of about 1% of the heater installation base in Germany this year [0]. Add to that the number of replacement units [1] and the switch in grid scale units (there are a number of waste heat to Fernwärme projects) I would expect a reduction of 5-10% in the reliance on gas compared to 2022. It’s not going to change the game completely, but it makes the situation much simpler. Add to that the experience we gained this year, and I would be extremely surprised if we have to resort to “outbid everyone in August and September on the worldwide LNG market”, which is basically what we did last year (to the point of having ships idling of our coast because all storage capacity was full..). I’m not saying that we don’t need to buy gas on the international markets, just that next winter will be easier to manage than this one. (And this one really wasn’t that hard either.) Which should be a good thing for the rest of the world market too [0] well really between Nov 22 and Oct23, but that’s relevant for the difference in gas consumption in the next heating period [1] though it’s entirely anecdotal, but a number of people have replaced their old gas unit this year already. Don’t think that’s overly smart as an idea. But replacing a 30 year old unit with a new one does decrease fuel consumption somewhat
bitL 4y ago
60%+ might be due to industry going bankrupt/decreasing gas consumption as well. Many chemical plants basically stopped since gas prices exploded which will lead to pharma/fertilizer shortages. We'll see what the future holds soon.