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What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems t
by sohex 4y ago
What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.
- joecot 4y agoThe same reason Russia invaded Ukraine even though it made no sense. The same reason Republicans put up Trump even though it made no sense. If you have 0 morals, you can gain a lot of power by riling up your base with empty promises of nationalist glory. But eventually your base expects you put up or shut up, even if it doesn't or never has made sense.
- anonymouskimmer 4y agoPossible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.
- b112 4y agoPossible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. They don't know how to run them, maintain them, use them. If they did, they'd have built their own. Only people help them here. And yet, they still don't have them. If China invaded tomorrow, just the power loss alone would render those fabs into useless tech, taking months to clean and repair. And they'd still gain nothing, for you can be sure China's tech spies have taken notes, pictures, stolen data, know all they would know, if they seized them in war.
- anonymouskimmer 4y agoThey could temporarily deny access to these nodes to other states. > Only people help them here. How many Hong Kongers aligned with the party after the preemptive takeover of the Hong Kong government? How many people simply cared more about making a living than fighting for their old political and legal system?
- augment001 4y agoThey didn’t have the benefit of seeing the example of what happened in Hong Kong.
- dmix 4y agoThere is no scenario where that is a worthy trade off for the immense costs.
- edgyquant 4y agoAccording to whom?
- anonymouskimmer 4y agoSure there is. The scenario is that you're the decision maker and don't have to personally suffer the immense costs.
- macintux 4y agoThe cost will be born by other Chinese, not him.
- lenkite 4y agoNot really. The U.S. really has its blinkers fully on if folks think that controlling the node fabs is a reason for the Chinese invasion. They are not dumbos - they know the foundries will be destroyed immediately. The reason is simple - China has always considered Taiwan part of China and the U.S. agreed to that position, before it first became "strategic ambiguity" and then it became "Taiwanese Independence" under President Biden. Judge this honestly: Do you really think a super-power is going to accept a non-friendly island next door to it militarised by an opponent super-power allowing it to project power just on its border ? Do you think the U.S. would accept Chinese military aid to Cuba with the Cubans armed with Chinese weapons and the presence of Chinese troops in Cuba ? If you know an American military officer, ask this question to him and watch him laugh at you. The Chinese would be bombed within 48 hours - hell the ships would be taken out before military supplies even reached Cuba. The U.S. could afford to play the game of asymmetric dominance because they were the sole super-power after the Cold War. That is no longer true.
- anonymouskimmer 4y ago> U.S. agreed to that position Yes, but the US never agreed which government would be the sole government of a united China. > Do you really think a super-power is going to accept a non-friendly island next door to it militarised by an opponent super-power allowing it to project power just on its border ? This was happening through the entire Cold War between Russia and the US in the Aleutian islands. It's the status quo change of nuclear missiles in Cuba that prompted the Cuban missile crisis, prior to that Russian troops and arms were present in Cuba without any deepening of the conflict.
- ProjectArcturis 4y ago>Do you think the U.S. would accept Chinese military aid to Cuba with the Cubans armed with Chinese weapons and the presence of Chinese troops in Cuba ? We accepted this exact scenario during the Cold War with Soviet troops. We wouldn't start a nuclear war to kick them out.
- akimball 4y agoThere is no scenario in which PRC invades Taiwan and the taiwanese chip fabs remain intact
- rnk 4y agoIt's nationalistic political ideology. I'm sure the famous Taiwan semiconductor foundries would be destroyed in any invasion. China wants to finally wipe out that resistance to them.
- dmix 4y agoWiping out resistance in Taiwan… by building a swath of new uber-enemies among all of the other surrounding countries. There’s really no positive outcome for taking Taiwan unless in 10-20yrs+ China gets out of their recent economic rut, starts rapidly growing again, and actually starts threatening not only the US but the western hegemony as a whole. Beyond just talking tough and isolating their economy, but by going to the next level of being an economic superpower that could sustain such a blow and build strong partnership with other powerful countries. Or if other partner countries in SEA, mid east, South America, Africa, India also grow rapidly and become far stronger power players and realign towards China.
- causi 4y agoChina the nation stands to gain nothing. Chairman Xi stands to gain, or rather keep, a tremendous amount of power. Taiwan as an independent country flies in the face of party propaganda and official PRC policy.
- AnimalMuppet 4y agoThis. Xi has made annexing Taiwan, essentially, a test of the CCP's legitimacy as ruler of China. If he fails, it's a huge loss of face, for him personally and for the CCP as a whole. Whether their power would survive that loss of face is not something they want to experimentally determine.
- m3kw9 4y agoThis is why is a long while before anything happens, they need to plan for every sanction, unlike russia, they seem to weather it ok, but it’s not very ok
- nirav72 4y agoBig difference between Russia and China at the moment. Russia can weather it because they have the energy resources. China does not and has to rely on imports for its energy needs.
- zsz 4y agoThe Pacific, for one, meaning control of shipping lanes—and with these, economic/political leverage over Japan (which, as internal PLA documents for senior staff have already revealed, they intend to put to full use). Right now, China is boxed in from all sides by mostly U.S. allied countries, so breaking the "First Island Chain" encirclement is in reality a much bigger deal than the semiconductor industry, especially in the long term.
- CamperBob2 4y agoWho do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly? They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.
- jandrese 4y agoOther authoritarian regimes. Autocrats gotta stick together. Besides, international sanctions don't last forever. Give it a decade and maybe everyone forgets. China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure. It's not a tiny island nation like Cuba.
- aaronblohowiak 4y ago> China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure. how do their imports compare to their exports?
- localplume 4y ago[dead]
- lenkite 4y ago> They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia. Umm...except for US+EU, no one is saying No to Russian oil and other exports. Of-course, you are free to consider that the "rest of the civilized world" in your mind.
- exmicrosoldier 4y agofrom wikipedia: Territorial sea, as defined by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,[2] is a belt of coastal waters extending at most 12 nautical miles (22 km; 14 mi) from the baseline (usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state. The territorial sea is regarded as the sovereign territory of the state I would guess that there's oil or shipping lanes or aircraft bases that they would want.
- lisper 4y agoAnd fish.
- John23832 4y agoBreaking the first island chain, which is a line of US military hardware at their front door. This allows them military access to the pacific, which they don’t have now.
- throwawaymaths 4y agoThis is the wrong question. The right question is: what does the leader of china gain by ordering an invasion of Taiwan?
- WinstonSmith84 4y agoIf I were him, I'd prefer the status quo. Invading Taiwan is not a 100% success guarantee and surely Xi doesn't want to end up like Putin in Ukraine. Even a (military) success would threaten his rule, simply by the economical consequences. That's a lot of risks for very little rewards. But who knows ... we can just hope for the sake of all of us, that the Chinese have better intelligence and better risk assessment than the Russians had.
- HWR_14 4y agoI think you have the causality backwards. When the economic reality looks bleak, a patriotic war is always a way to distract people.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y agoThe Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo. However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the US is shifting away from the One China policy. That shift is deeply alarming the Chinese government. There doesn't seem to be anyone in American politics who is capable of pressing the breaks, slowing down the drive towards confrontation, and reengaging in real diplomacy with China. In the end, the belief in the US that there will be a show-down over Taiwan is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
- Symbiote 4y agoSo if China invades Taiwan, it's Americas fault really? Ridiculous.
- WastingMyTime89 4y agoWhile I don’t think America would be to blame for a war started by China, as an outsider, I think it has to be noted that America under Biden has been diplomatically rather aggressive and variably trustworthy. It’s fairly obvious than the whole alliance of democracies against authoritarianism is a paper thin cover for "countries which serve the US interests" and both include countries which don’t promote liberal values and exclude countries which do.
- HDThoreaun 4y agoChina is worried about being blockaded, which is a large threat due to their reliance on middle eastern oil. The status quo makes it relatively easy for the American navy to completely encircle their shores, but without Taiwan that strategy breaks down.
- akimball 4y agoNot really. You just blockade Taiwan. Move the circle out a little bit. Moreover, attacking Taiwan guarantees that a blockade will occur. Besides which, Taiwan probably has nukes inside the PRC. If not they are dumber than dirt.
- lmm 4y ago> You just blockade Taiwan. "Blockade Taiwan" where? The Chinese fleet currently have to pass close to land to go anywhere outside their own seas, but from Taiwan it's clear blue water all the way to Hawaii.
- lenkite 4y agoThey have always considered Taiwan part of China. The US even agreed and signed a treaty regarding that. The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. Since then, the US devolved first to strategic ambiguity and then recently to supporting Taiwanese Independence in the Biden Era. The Chinese are not going to take it lying down. Nationalism matters a lot to Chinese - if you think this is simply a Xi endeavour, you are sadly, sadly mistaken. Even if Xi died today, the vast majority of the high command will decide to carry forth. Unfortunately, War is generally a snowballing, self-fulfilling prophecy. Since the U.S. has now gained access to four new Philippine bases, China will be forced to respond as well. The game of escalation will continue until the final pin drops. Personally, I really don't think super-powers should be stubborn. There should be new negotiations and there should b e a revised Shanghai Communique. China is unlikely to accept an fully independent island so close to their border though and will want some control over Taiwanese governance. Its too much of a threat to them otherwise. If you think the position un-reasonable, turn the situation around and judge the way the U.S. treats Cuba - strong-armed and watched over by the Guantanamo Bay military base and sanctioned to death and you might get an idea of what China's starting negotiation position will likely to be.
- gscott 4y agoTaiwan's output of chips requires inputs from the rest of the world including Japan. At this time it doesn't make sense for china to cut out it's main source of high tech chips. It could make sense later if China had its own supply of chips and could cut out Taiwan altogether. China is pushing hard to make their own non-liberal order but China also depends on exports. Also China's political system is based upon absolute control over everything a person does. It will be messy implementing that onto people who already fought against it so there will be a lot of killings, disappearing people, and the usual China stuff broadcast all of time. Will be a bad look, not great to throw that in the face of people you need to export goods to. We have no political control in Cuba even though we did take a portion of the island.
- 4y ago
- mullingitover 4y agoOne thing I learned recently was that when the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan, they took a vast trove of priceless Chinese antiquities with them. This has long been a sore spot for China, which makes the desire to annex Taiwan not simply a dollars and cents tactical goal but also a matter of national pride. It's like if we had a right-wing revolution in the US, and the current national government fled to Nova Scotia with the contents of the Smithsonian, the National Archives, and every important museum and library.
- gscott 4y agoThey did take them and a good thing too. In the cultural revolution the CCP destroyed the priceless Chinese antiquities on the mainland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Olds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Olds
- mullingitover 4y agoTotally, and I'm not making any judgment about whether it was right or wrong to take all the antiquities. However, I think the current regime in China has different ideas about the value of these antiquities, and so they're eager to get them back for the sense of legitimacy and connection to China's history that they would bring.
- CountSessine 4y agoI guarantee you that if they gave those antiquities back it wouldn't change a thing.
- zozbot234 4y agoHow many priceless Chinese antiquities were destroyed by the Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution? They should have taken even more! It's like if we had a radical extremist revolution in the US, and the contents of the Smithsonian, the National Archives, and nearly every important museum and library were all burned because they're too old, oppressive and counter-revolutionary.
- 4y ago
- decafninja 4y agoFace. As an East Asian myself, the amount of stupidity that goes on in all of the East Asian countries at all levels because of “face” is astounding. Call it “honor” or “nationalism” or “XXX Pride” - ultimately all the same thing.
- tomcam 4y agoThis is the answer. It is so simple and yet so alien to the west that it simply doesn’t register in most people’s minds.
- brandonmenc 4y agoIt’s becoming less alien by the day, our refusal to cut tail in Iraq and Afghanistan as evidence.
- l3mure 4y ago> yet so alien to the west > Chinese state planners when they successfully cloak their plans in a cloud of Orientalism https://media.tenor.com/isrmdo9Xr9EAAAAC/mission-accomplished.gif https://media.tenor.com/isrmdo9Xr9EAAAAC/mission-accomplishe...
- another_story 4y agoFace is used to rile the public, but it's rarely the motivation of those calling the shots. If face were at play Xi wouldn't have suddenly opened up with covid, backed down after threats when Pelosi visited, or let the Diaoyu Island situation go. In China tens of millions watched the live stream Pelosi's plane flying to Taiwan, expectantly waiting for it to be shot out of the air like their leadership insinuated. Those people believe in face saving efforts, while those in charge buy homes in Japan and send their children to American universities.
- meowtimemania 4y agoWhat do you mean by "Face"?
- 4y ago
- dougmwne 4y agoFrom what I understand, it is an affront to their regime. It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. In a very real sense, Taiwan is not a separate country, but a unconquered territory from the Civil War, the last bastion of the pre-1949 Republic of China, and a symbol of what could have been for all of China. Sure there are geopolitical reasons as well, but The CCP very much does not want the living proof that they are not necessary to be sitting 100 miles off their coast. If there were ever a real democratic movement in China it would draw huge cultural inspiration from Taiwan.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago> It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. This is really irrelevant to the conflict, which goes back long before Taiwan democratized (which was only in the late 1990s). The conflict is relatively simple. Taiwan was a province of China, and still is a part of the Republic of China. The People's Republic of China sees itself as the successor state of the ROC, and is also seen as such by the rest of the world. That means that the PRC considers Taiwan to be part of its rightful, legal territory. The issue of the territorial integrity of China is especially important in modern China because of the history of colonialism and invasion in the 19th and 20th Centuries. Both the Nationalists and Communists dreamed of expelling the colonial powers and warlords, reuniting China, and finally establishing a fully sovereign, independent state. The separation of Taiwan from the mainland, as a result of the Chinese civil war, is seen as the last vestige of the era in which China was weak and not unified.
- ajmurmann 4y ago> and is also seen as such by the rest of the world Is this actually true? It seems that most governments accept the formal definition in a diplomatic sense because they want to avoid conflict with China. However, it seems clear that at least most western countries see Taiwan as its own country in practice. From my experience the population of western countries is either surprised to hear that Taiwan isn't supposed to be its own country or see this as some bizarre concession to the power-hungry CCP we make to keep them peaceful.
- majormajor 4y agoThe leadership of China are happy to answer that question for you. You may want to reject those reasons, but I think it's dangerous to substitute your own reasoning for theirs: you risk having the significant differences in your worldview causing massive blindspots about what "real analysis" would mean to them. People said the same stuff about whether or not they'd start to take more direct control of Hong Kong early. Similarly, it feels like the "Trump is just saying that for PR, he would stop doing and saying crazy stuff if he wins the election" 2016 discourse. Sometimes you should believe people when they say what they're gonna do. (See also: overturning Roe v Wade, a core idea of Republican discourse for decades.) Or "what does the US gain from invading Afghanistan and Iraq in real terms, other than just satisfying some loud calls for arbitrary blood?"
- richardw 4y agoOwn more parts of the tech chip industry it doesn’t already? It would instantly have even more massive leverage internationally.
- akimball 4y agoTaiwanese fabs would become rubble in the event of an invasion.
- Maursault 4y ago> Own more parts of the tech chip industry it doesn’t already? It would instantly have even more massive leverage internationally. Actually, it would gain China only anything other than this. If China were to invade Taiwan, the most-advanced chip factory in the world would be rendered “not operable,” TSMC Chair Mark Liu said[1] And "non operability" might be the least of TSMC's worries.[2] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/apple-chipmaker-tsmc-warns-taiwan-china-war-would-make-everybody-losers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/apple-chipmaker-tsmc-warns-t... [2] https://www.phonearena.com/news/if-china-invades-taiwan-us-could-destroy-fabs_id146291 https://www.phonearena.com/news/if-china-invades-taiwan-us-c...
- richardw 4y agoThose are possibilities. The only guarantee world be that China now had Taiwan. The very fact those articles exist prove why China wants Taiwan, which was the question. A week in, china says “ok who wants chips?” And the world world help get everything rolling again, because we need things Taiwan makes in aggregate more than Taiwan does. There are no other options. We also need things China makes.
- nonethewiser 4y agoIm having a hard time approaching this question because it’s seems so obvious but it has caused me to think more carefully. The obvious response is because they want to overthrow the government and govern it themselves. But to be more specific, they want the capacity to have a military presence on Taiwan, levy taxes, control trade, and legislate, police, people and businesses of Taiwan. All of these things help the CCP and in same ways China in general (although killing an ethnically Chinese Democracy isn’t actually doing any Chinese people favors). Beyond this, more broadly they want to continue conquering and project power. Taiwan is their most important claim at the moment but it’s neither their first nor last. Next most obvious target is parts of Siberia and perhaps southeast Asian countries.
- eu 4y agoWhat does Russia stand to gain by invading Ukraine?!
- ajmurmann 4y agoSeveral things: * Ukraine historically had been their bread basket * It's one of several hard to defend routes into Russia. Russia needs Ukraine as a buffer. * Eastern Ukraine has lots of mining and industry Russia needs that were critical to the UDSSR economy as well.
- midoridensha 4y ago> It's one of several hard to defend routes into Russia. Russia needs Ukraine as a buffer. No, Russia doesn't need it. I'm sure you're correct that Russia believes this, but the reality is that no one actually wants to invade Russia, and no one has wanted to invade Russia for a very, very long time. All Russia's neighbors have only been worried about invasion and oppression from Russia, ever since the end of WWII. Somehow, the Russian people seem to collectively have a weird paranoid victim mentality, thinking they're always under threat of invasion, when in reality everyone just hates them and wishes they'd keep to themselves. They think they're entitled to controlling other neighboring countries for their own defense, but they never give a thought to those countries' defense. Somehow, places like Poland and Sweden these days are able to not worry about being invaded by their (non-Russian) neighbors, so all the other borders within Europe are completely undefended. Maybe if Russia tried being friendly with other nations instead of constantly threatening them with military action, they could have a peaceful coexistence too.
- adastra22 4y agoIt's self-projection, really.
- midoridensha 4y agoMaybe they're still stuck in 1930s mentality. Back then, Hitler really did want to invade Russia (and did), along with Poland and a bunch of other countries. However, the world has moved on in the last 80 years. Germany is part of NATO now, Poland and Germany are friends (and France, Netherlands, etc.), and no one is worried about invasion from Germany any more. Somehow, the people of Russia never got past the mindset they had back when Hitler tried to invade.
- clouddrover 4y ago> they're better served by the status quo Russia was better served by the status quo but they went ahead and invaded Ukraine. Xi Jinping is feeling his age (just like Putin). Xi Jinping sees the mere existence of Taiwan as an independent state as an historical wrong (like Putin). Xi Jinping wants to be the one what got Taiwan, he wants it to be his legacy (again, just like Putin). A Chinese invasion of Taiwan won't be a strategic choice or even a rational choice. It's an emotional choice.
- MrPatan 4y agoNow do Russia and Ukraine
- ramblenode 4y agoMost of the answers to this question seem to assume some type of material or geopolitical calculus. The issue is far more cultural. Begin with the simple observations that reuinfication is popular with mainland Chinese people and party members and that the official position of the PRC since its inception has been that the PRC and ROC are one country. Taiwan's independence is an affront to the perceived authority of the mainland government. Reunifying China after its fracturing under imperialism is a deep cultural ethos. Material concerns are secondary to this.
- godelski 4y ago- Shipping[0]: Between China and Taiwan is a very popular shipping lane. Anything that comes from anywhere except the North America likely comes through or near there. This is why they are also interested in Singapore and Indonesia. See the 9-dash line map[1], which shows where they claim control over the seas, and compare that to the shipping map on [0]. I should also reference the Kuril Islands[1.5] as an analogy and a more critical situation between Russian and Japan (Japanese control could lock Russia out, hence their deep concern). - TSMC: I'm not sure I need to cite the chip wars as there's an article on the front page probably every week and has been so for the last 4 years. - Territoriality control: It gives them a greater vantage over territories, especially into the ocean. Though reference first point. - Political: Taiwan and Hong Kong (not so much Macau, considered "resolved") have represented the antithesis to the CCP's way of thinking and propaganda. Xi and the CCP have long been touting the line that democracy is not possible in Asia and specifically in China[2,3,4] noting that "the fruit looks the same but the taste is different." Taiwan specifically demonstrates a counter to their claim that the people can be free AND prosperous at the same time. But so do other surrounding countries, but there's a larger gap and these people see large gaps between cultures where us Westerns may not see any (tensions have long been high between China, Japan, and Korea and they've been warring for centuries. Particularly bad in WW2 btw). I should also note that which ever Chinese leader "passifies the dissenters" will go down in history as doing something that no previous leader could and be a great show of strength. So there's internal politics as well that may be far less important to those of us on the outside. I'd say these are the major aspects but each one is far deeper than this comment would lead you to believe and there are of course other factors as well. [0] https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:115.7/centery:16.8/zoom:5 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:115.7/cent... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line [1.5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/china-politics-xi-jinping/xi-jinping-says-multi-party-system-didnt-work-for-china-idINDEEA3101U20140402 https://www.reuters.com/article/china-politics-xi-jinping/xi... [3] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3142130/xi-believes-autocracies-will-fare-better-democracies-says https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3142130/xi... [4] (this one responds to [3] but is also funny) https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3180490/why-xi-wouldnt-have-told-biden-autocracies-will-run-world https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3180490/why-xi-... > The answer to this puzzle might lie in the confusion between two different Chinese expressions which are pronounced exactly the same: “concentration of power” (集权, or jiquan in pinyin) and “autocracy” (极权, also pronounced jiquan)... Therefore, “concentration of power”, not “autocracies”, should be what Xi referred to in his call with Biden. I think many will even question if the distinction is meaningful here. There is also a link [5] that quotes Xi about how to describe a democracy: > Whether a country is democratic or not should only be judged by the people of that country, and there is no place for a small number of outsiders to point fingers at this or that Which again, feels off since his argument would conclude that the DPRK is Democratic and I think few would agree. We have a long history of watching autocracies and dictators refer to their systems as "democratic" [5] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3152389/xi-jinping-says-chinas-democratic-political-system-great https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3152389/xi-...
- CountSessine 4y agoCertainty. The CCP has (right or wrong) declared that Taiwan is an inviolable part of China and a rogue province. That means that if Taiwan were to declare independence and succeed, it would be a signal failure for the CCP - a gross loss of face. The party's legitimacy (always a complicated thing for an authoritarian state) would be threatened by the demonstration of weakness. Taiwanese independence is the CCP's soft and fleshy underbelly. Bringing Taiwan under Beijing's control eliminates the uncertainty that comes from that political vulnerability.
- throwA29B 4y ago>What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Dignity. Healing of the last wound inflicted by invaders. China will be whole again. And also removal of American puppet from their border and drastic decrease of US influence in the region. Win-win.