16 ms·
"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile,
by moose_man 4y ago
"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt.
If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets, to newly enter the market, thus making those countries totally dependent on China, according to a European source.
Beijing has been investing in facilities to manufacture magnets at low cost through large-scale production, which could lead to Japan losing its market share in the future.
The draft revision says the export ban and restrictions are aimed at protecting “national security” and are in the “public interest of society.” Chinese President Xi Jinping’s administration has positioned magnets as a key factor in China’s economic growth and security."
This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war.
- verdverm 4y agoWe've been in Cold War 2 for a while. It's hard to see the other two options as better alternatives. (hot war & capitulation) The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast. Authoritarianism has a problem with corruption and not telling the leader the truth of reality.
- abudabi123 4y agoTime will tell. We live interesting times.
- nivenkos 4y agoSadly, the West is looking more and more authoritarian though.
- augment001 4y agoUnfortunately so, but by comparison to China it has a very long way to go.
- aarreedd 4y agoThis comment was marked as "dead" for couple minutes. Visible again now. I was about to ask why.
- kevin_thibedeau 4y ago[flagged]
- akiselev 4y agoLikely registered via VPN or Tor.
- drekk 4y agoThe US imprisons more of its own citizens per capita and in absolute terms than an "authoritarian" nation-state 4x its population. Remind us the last time China invaded a country as "liberators"? Seeing Americans of all people sit on a high horse is unreal. Like every yank forgot about "shock and awe" or "make their economy scream" It would be great to see westerners measure their own societies by the same yardstick. Mainly because as citizens ostensibly living in a democracy (representative republic, whatever) they are complicit and responsible for the choices of their elected bodies. We're not even a few years removed from protestors against police brutality in the US being whisked away in unmarked vans by people not in uniform. It's a race to the bottom and the US is already there, but nobody seems to care as long as they can pat themselves on the back for not being Russia/China.
- ren_engineer 4y ago>Remind us the last time China invaded a country as "liberators" Tibet, Korea, Vietnam, Hong Kong? And constantly abusing other nations territorial waters for fishing and general intimidation
- verdverm 4y agoIn the US, the people can force change through protests and elections. What options do the Uyghurs or Chinese people have?
- SllX 4y agoIf this is true, you should substantiate this claim. More authoritarian compared to when? 1789? 1919? 1933? 1945? 1951? 1962? 1974? 1989? 2007? 2019?
- FpUser 4y agoComparatively to before 911 for sure
- SllX 4y agoJust prior to 9/11 or are you talking about the period between 1989 and 9/11?
- FpUser 4y agoI see it with my own eyes that after 9/11 things are getting worse. Not sure how it is not clear from my previous answer
- SllX 4y agoSure! I don’t necessarily disagree, but what is your point of reference? If September 11th 2001 was the end of an era, what was the starting point of that era? The fall of the Berlin Wall? Something else? Was the period before that starting point more or less authoritarian than today?
- edgyquant 4y agoThat users point is that the first half of the Cold War was way more authoritarian and so pre-9/11 is not a benchmark in itself
- throwawaymaths 4y agoI'm not sure you are old enough to remember but at one point a progressive president was aligned with the ku klux klan and put a dissenting socialist journalist in jail.... Just because. Not too long after (different president), shops were required to put emblems in their window showing they supported the regime's economic plan.
- dathinab 4y agoyes but still far far less then china its just you hear about all the problems from the west you mainly only hear about problems from China when they are in context of the west, china is enacting a lot of pressure and tricks to greatly reduce negative reporting about it especially about china's inner politics. Most western people speaking English but but Mandarin helps then there too.
- FpUser 4y ago>"The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast." During the CWI (ha I just coined the new Cold War I term) we did not get hi-tech stuff from the opponent. In CWII we are not that lucky and have no immediate replacement for many things. I am afraid if this thing really gets up to speed we a heading for disaster. That the other side suffers as well or even worse is no consolation.
- downrightmike 4y agoDidn't we just learn how to make magnets in a novel way without rare earth? Yes, yes we did: https://hackaday.com/2022/09/01/iron-nitrides-powerful-magnets-without-the-rare-earth-elements/ https://hackaday.com/2022/09/01/iron-nitrides-powerful-magne...
- dgoodell 4y agoI don’t think that’s a commercial product yet, still on the tech development phase. It may not pan out. I asked for some samples a while ago so we could test them out in our magnet lab here at NASA GRC but I haven’t heard anything back yet.
- downrightmike 4y agoNASA GRC Magnet lab, sounds attractive...
- echelon 4y agoThe bigger story is the recent push to settle trade in Yuan instead of USD. BRICS [1] , Saudi Arabia [2], many South American [3] and ASEAN countries [4], (and even France [5]!) have signed on to do Yuan-based settlement. This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. The US economy and our special ability to buy cheap goods have relied upon the world buying up US dollars. The sheer amount of investment in the US is a direct consequence of the dollar's elevated status. This is pushback to US Swift-based sanctions and hegemony and an acceleration to multi-polar power. Several counties have wanted this for a long time, but the Ukraine war and tensions with China have accelerated this. This is a big deal with titanic, earth shaking consequences for the US and the West. It could lead to incredible inflation and an economic depression if the world stops buying up dollars. This is pretty horrifying to watch unfold so quickly. It's hard not to see all of the chess pieces moving. There is a huge game being played right now -- in the open, for all to see -- that will determine the balance of power for the remainder of the century. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/o-neill-urges-brics-bloc-to-expand-challenge-dollar-s-dominance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/o-neill-u... [2] https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-acceptin... [3] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3215857/chinas-yuan-makes-brazilian-inroads-de-dollarisation-reflects-cracks-us-currency-settlements https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3215857/c... [4] https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/04/06/business/foreign-business/asean-shifting-away-from-dollar-economist/1885893 https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/04/06/business/foreign-busi... [5] https://www.rfi.fr/en/business/20230331-petrodollar-under-threat-as-france-s-totalenergies-sells-lng-to-china-in-yuan https://www.rfi.fr/en/business/20230331-petrodollar-under-th...
- ren_engineer 4y agoplenty of people have been warning about this for years with regards to the push towards renewable energy and electric cars. China makes 70-80% of the components of solar panels globally. the idea that manufacturing is somehow low value and "services" are what developed economies should focus on is one of the dumbest concepts in human history. It will take the US decades to rebuild their manufacturing base
- red-iron-pine 4y agoThe top 3 manufacturers in the world are: China (by a lot) then Germany, then the US. And of them, the US has far, far better access to natural resources (admittedly, having to lean on Canada).
- edgyquant 4y agoThis is false, the US is second and Japan third https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor...
- dahwolf 4y agoWe have similar delusions here in the Netherlands, but we call it the "knowledge economy". The arrogant and misguided idea that us advanced smart people would do the thinking whilst the dummies make the stuff. Which means you unlearn how to make anything whilst the other party gets ever more advanced at it. And then takes over the thinking too. You end up with a select few Excel managers, a decimated middle class, and a layer of poor local service workers. The destruction of the middle class in the West has been ongoing for decades now and almost every single problem can be traced back to it.
- type0 4y ago> The destruction of the middle class in the West has been ongoing for decades now Virtually all politicians are happy it's happening, populace is easier to control that way.
- 908B64B197 4y agoHere's the real issue: China has been dumping rare earth metals and magnets at ridiculously low prices for decades (and polluting their country). This had the effect of making mining and refining these metals unprofitable in the west (why pay the huge price of pollution when the Chinese will contaminate their ground water below costs?). This doesn't mean the west can't scale up prospection and innovation to have cleaner ways to make these magnets. There's little to no tech gap the Chinese have over the west.
- r00fus 4y agoThe fact that the US Govt didn't see this as a national security issue and act accordingly (consequently doing something to prop up local industry) is the real problem. China is playing chess while we're playing checkers.
- ren_engineer 4y agothe difference between having engineers as government leaders versus lawyers. The West is ran by smooth talking lawyers rather than a general sample of the population or subject matter experts here's a visualization of the change over time, career government employees and lawyers took over and things went downhill in the US at least https://i.imgur.com/xdWVes2.gif https://i.imgur.com/xdWVes2.gif
- throwawaymaths 4y agoThe us tried having an engineer leader, Herbert Hoover. It did not end well.
- ren_engineer 4y agonot sure how much you can blame Hoover for the great depression, guy just had bad luck in being president when the entire world economy imploded. The US didn't pull out of it until WWII
- causi 4y agoThis is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.
- sohex 4y agoWhat does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.
- joecot 4y agoThe same reason Russia invaded Ukraine even though it made no sense. The same reason Republicans put up Trump even though it made no sense. If you have 0 morals, you can gain a lot of power by riling up your base with empty promises of nationalist glory. But eventually your base expects you put up or shut up, even if it doesn't or never has made sense.
- anonymouskimmer 4y agoPossible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.
- b112 4y agoPossible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. They don't know how to run them, maintain them, use them. If they did, they'd have built their own. Only people help them here. And yet, they still don't have them. If China invaded tomorrow, just the power loss alone would render those fabs into useless tech, taking months to clean and repair. And they'd still gain nothing, for you can be sure China's tech spies have taken notes, pictures, stolen data, know all they would know, if they seized them in war.
- xiphias2 4y agoI don't understand why you need quotes for national security. Anybody who has seen Trump's ,,China China China'' video knew that relations between the US and China have significantly shifted towards being less friendly with eachother. Banning rare earth magnets is terrible for cleaning up the earth, but after the chip ban that US is pushing so hard, China has to answer :(
- f6v 4y ago> This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. I can see this as a response to USA banning China from accessing top chip technologies.
- red-iron-pine 4y agoA decade or two too late, IMO. They haven't, nor ever likely will, respect IP yet believe the rest of the world will respect theirs.
- HPsquared 4y agoIt's a little similar to the early history of the USA actually, there was a LOT of infringement of British and European patents in the early years. Only later, after significant economic development, did the US become an intellectual property powerhouse.
- f6v 4y ago> yet believe the rest of the world will respect theirs. Do they really?
- gtvwill 4y agoThat moment when a bunch of first world nations are about to realise defense involves more than just troops on the ground. You gotta be able to build everything that enables them being on the ground else rip. Tbh from a risk point it astounds me the defence sector over the last 30 years with the oodles of money poured into it have failed so heavily at protecting nation state positions. We have traditionally wealthy stable nations states being crumpled by some trade deals. Lol imagine propping your entire way of life up based on the agreement with your competition thay they will fuel your success and requirements.... Comes across as pure madness from anyone with the slightest hint of risk aversion when you take a step back and look at it.
- baq 4y agoThis and some other export bans happen and we’re looking at 10% fed funds rate. Supply chains are in shambles already.
- outside1234 4y agoBut this market share is because we aren't mining them in other countries So it is a clear sign that we need to start mining them
- albertopv 4y agoChina is a net exporter to EU, let's ban all chinese goods and let's see, short term pain for long term gain.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- asdff 4y agoUS bans technology exports for certain things too. Try and export a reactor design. Recently, we are seeing more investment in semiconductor manufacturing and other electronic away from China. China is not just going to sit back if they have an opportunity to secure their position in this industry. This action shouldn't be surprising. Expect more attempts at protectionism as different industries attempt to diversify manufacturing out of China, not China to just well up and take the massive economic hit that this would mean for them.
- stn_za 4y agoAmerica has done much of the same for years. China isn't even allowed to have modern CPU technologies, and such tech is banned for export to China
- nswest23 4y ago> 84% share of the global market who will they sell to if they ban export?