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I don't know if this is serious or not to be quite honest. But I think the South China Sea and Taiwan provide ample tinder to spark an inferno in the very near

I don't know if this is serious or not to be quite honest. But I think the South China Sea and Taiwan provide ample tinder to spark an inferno in the very near term like the next 5 years. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-builds-mockups-us-navy-ships-area-used-missile-target-practice-2021-11-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-builds-mockups-us-... The point is, if no one knows what the stakes are, it becomes easy for an accident to escalate into a war. A plane collision leads to war, war-games around Taiwan lead to war. The military is on autopilot without a substantial debate about what the US should do. Neither side wants WWIII but neither did the people who stumbled in WWI. Even Hitler thought he would be able to take Poland without France or the UK intervening and was not happy when they declared war. There is no winner in WWIII. It's not a numbers game because we all die.

jpgvm 4y ago
IMO China has very clear doctrine that should make it very easy to avoid war with them. Taiwan is part of "One China". Violate that, expect war. China isn't really an aggressor otherwise. Little border skirmishes with India but that is going to get sorted out eventually once they finally decide on a damn border together. It's not like they are planning invasions of Japan, Philippines etc and not really relatable to either Ukraine currently or Poland in WWII. To me it seems pretty clear that China is happy to win economically. US really doesn't want that to happen so there is a good chance they start a war over Taiwan to prevent it.
- moose_man 4y ago
  Nobody goes into world war thinking they are getting into a world war which is why they become world wars.
- axus 4y ago
  I don't see how the US winning a war over Taiwan prevents China's economic prosperity. It seems more like both sides are perpetuating a stalemate for emotional reasons.
- Steltek 4y ago
  If war starts because the US and Taiwan made some agreement, that would be China starting a war. They look quite trigger happy, in fact. Launching missiles in a tantrum and damaging foreign aircraft through stupid antics. You're also defining "economic win" as "able to exist independently of the West" but in practice it would be returning to a Cold War like status: no winners or losers because the game isn't over yet.
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  What do you mean? If China invades Taiwan they are the aggressor, no?

jpgvm 4y ago

IMO China has very clear doctrine that should make it very easy to avoid war with them. Taiwan is part of "One China". Violate that, expect war. China isn't really an aggressor otherwise. Little border skirmishes with India but that is going to get sorted out eventually once they finally decide on a damn border together. It's not like they are planning invasions of Japan, Philippines etc and not really relatable to either Ukraine currently or Poland in WWII. To me it seems pretty clear that China is happy to win economically. US really doesn't want that to happen so there is a good chance they start a war over Taiwan to prevent it.

moose_man 4y ago
Nobody goes into world war thinking they are getting into a world war which is why they become world wars.
axus 4y ago
I don't see how the US winning a war over Taiwan prevents China's economic prosperity. It seems more like both sides are perpetuating a stalemate for emotional reasons.
Steltek 4y ago
If war starts because the US and Taiwan made some agreement, that would be China starting a war. They look quite trigger happy, in fact. Launching missiles in a tantrum and damaging foreign aircraft through stupid antics. You're also defining "economic win" as "able to exist independently of the West" but in practice it would be returning to a Cold War like status: no winners or losers because the game isn't over yet.
nonethewiser 4y ago
What do you mean? If China invades Taiwan they are the aggressor, no?