4 ms·

The part where it is a war, is the demand that companies sell products in China that are on US sanctions list. That isn't typical. In order to get approved you

The part where it is a war, is the demand that companies sell products in China that are on US sanctions list. That isn't typical. In order to get approved you have to do something that would undermine the US policy and have your firm hit with sanctions. I don't think pretending things are normal is helpful because it stifles the conversation on the huge fork in the road the US and China faces in terms of peaceful coexistence or all out war. If we're going to come to a peaceful solution then it is important that we have a real debate. What's at stake has to be clear. Otherwise we're all going to stumble into a war like in 1914. I think part of the reason the situation now is so dangerous, is that for business reasons, people kept insisting there were no stakes at all, that there was no conflict. So it's all been much quieter military buildup on both sides. Business says we need to make money, so the problem gets delegated exclusively to Pentagon which isn't as loud as the business lobby.

jpgvm 4y ago
US will need to be the ones to start said war. China is forming the BRICS coalition which will see them completely sated in terms of energy and raw material needs for the foreseeable future. They have no need or desire for war, their economy, influence and power will grow even with full decoupling from the US. War if anything is the only thing that can disrupt that so they are increasingly unlikely to be an aggressor. Why try change the state of the game if you are going to win by default with enough time? At some point the US has to come to terms with the fact that the Western sphere of influence only covers a tiny portion of the globe and an even smaller fraction of it's population. They are the ones driving the division but are being left on the smaller and long-term ultimately weaker side of it in terms of economic and even military potential. They hold the upper hand for now but things don't look good if they keep moving in the same direction. It's a numbers game in the end the East has more people, more land, more resources and more motivation.
- moose_man 4y ago
  I don't know if this is serious or not to be quite honest. But I think the South China Sea and Taiwan provide ample tinder to spark an inferno in the very near term like the next 5 years. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-builds-mockups-us-navy-ships-area-used-missile-target-practice-2021-11-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-builds-mockups-us-... The point is, if no one knows what the stakes are, it becomes easy for an accident to escalate into a war. A plane collision leads to war, war-games around Taiwan lead to war. The military is on autopilot without a substantial debate about what the US should do. Neither side wants WWIII but neither did the people who stumbled in WWI. Even Hitler thought he would be able to take Poland without France or the UK intervening and was not happy when they declared war. There is no winner in WWIII. It's not a numbers game because we all die.
  - jpgvm 4y ago
    IMO China has very clear doctrine that should make it very easy to avoid war with them. Taiwan is part of "One China". Violate that, expect war. China isn't really an aggressor otherwise. Little border skirmishes with India but that is going to get sorted out eventually once they finally decide on a damn border together. It's not like they are planning invasions of Japan, Philippines etc and not really relatable to either Ukraine currently or Poland in WWII. To me it seems pretty clear that China is happy to win economically. US really doesn't want that to happen so there is a good chance they start a war over Taiwan to prevent it.
    - moose_man 4y ago
      Nobody goes into world war thinking they are getting into a world war which is why they become world wars.
    - axus 4y ago
      I don't see how the US winning a war over Taiwan prevents China's economic prosperity. It seems more like both sides are perpetuating a stalemate for emotional reasons.
    - Steltek 4y ago
      If war starts because the US and Taiwan made some agreement, that would be China starting a war. They look quite trigger happy, in fact. Launching missiles in a tantrum and damaging foreign aircraft through stupid antics. You're also defining "economic win" as "able to exist independently of the West" but in practice it would be returning to a Cold War like status: no winners or losers because the game isn't over yet.
    - nonethewiser 4y ago
      What do you mean? If China invades Taiwan they are the aggressor, no?
- stefan_ 4y ago
  The BRICS coalition, wherein India hates them, Russia is a dysfunctional colony, Brazil is on the wrong side of the planet and South Africa.. its not clear why it made the list. Sorry, when the USSR collapsed, you didn't get multipolar, you got unipolar.
  - jpgvm 4y ago
    They are all of their primary resource trading partners. It's not a military alliance and it doesn't need to be. It's a trade alliance that works for all parties (at this time).
- alephnerd 4y ago
  Ehn, BRICS as a block is overstated as well. It started off as a one off marketing term for GS's Asia practice which was going through a wild west phase in the early 2000s (1MBD scandal is the most notable of the scandals from that time). While there is some level of economic integration among all the BRICS, on a Grand Strategy standpoint it's not very cohesive. The only commonality they have is supporting a multipolar world - basically a bunch of regional Monroe Doctrines. The issue is, for RIC, their near abroads all clash with each other which leads to them concentrating on each other. Finally, any conversation about the BRICS ignores the reality that SK+Japan+Taiwan are the true financial behemoths in Asia from an FDI standpoint.
- unity1001 4y ago
  > They hold the upper hand for now They dont since Russian and Chinese SWIFT alternatives were launched.
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  The impetus for war is controlling Taiwan and pushing the U.S. out of the pacific.
alephnerd 4y ago
The topic of decoupling has only become mainstream/noticed by normies in the last 1-2 years. In reality, there has been an active economic decoupling going on since 2012-13. The primary manufacturers for intermediate parts (the main portion of the supply chain that Chinese industry is competitive in) are Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese conglomerates like SK Hynix, Samsung, LG, Toshiba, Panasonic, NEC, Mitsubishi, Foxconn, etc. All these companies began leaving for ASEAN in the 2012-17 period when political crises between PRC-Japan (Senkakou/Diayou Islands), Taiwan, and South Korea (THAAD) lead all 3 countries to move FDI to Vietnam or reopen factories in Thailand and Malaysia that moved to PRC in the 2000s. And this isn't just in Hardware. Even in Software, American VC investment in PRC peaked in 2015 before crashing after that. Basically, what I'm trying to say is those of us who have worked in or work adjacent to the policy space know that we are in a period of elevated tensions between the PRC and the US, but it's not at the "we're going to start a shooting war" level yet. The kind of hyper-hawkish and paranoid rhetoric among "normies" is ridiculous and I say that as a China Hawk. But then again, if you have intimate knowledge of how those specific agencies and governments operate, it starts looking less scary.
- moose_man 4y ago
  I mean if we just look at economic and diplomatic arenas war may not be on the table. The military policy on both sides are acting in a way where war is an inevitable outcome they must prepare for. China is practicing on mockups of US ships and building systems designed to take out US military assets. US military is in the process of dispersing forces to smaller bases in preparation. China's military practiced a full naval blockade of Taiwan this past summer. Both sides are in a slow rolling mobilization. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/06/07/anticipating-war-with-china-the-us-air-force-is-spreading-across-the-pacific/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/06/07/anticipatin... https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/15/asia/us-air-force-f-22-guam-tinian-exercise-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/15/asia/us-air-force-f-22-guam-t... https://www.armytimes.com/news/2022/10/11/army-prepares-for-dispersed-warfare-with-high-casualties/ https://www.armytimes.com/news/2022/10/11/army-prepares-for-... People may have been talking about decoupling for 1-2 years, but the military has been sprinting to prepare for the last decade. Look at the B-21 raider, there is a reason it was one of the quickest and most efficient programs in US contracting history.

jpgvm 4y ago

US will need to be the ones to start said war. China is forming the BRICS coalition which will see them completely sated in terms of energy and raw material needs for the foreseeable future. They have no need or desire for war, their economy, influence and power will grow even with full decoupling from the US. War if anything is the only thing that can disrupt that so they are increasingly unlikely to be an aggressor. Why try change the state of the game if you are going to win by default with enough time? At some point the US has to come to terms with the fact that the Western sphere of influence only covers a tiny portion of the globe and an even smaller fraction of it's population. They are the ones driving the division but are being left on the smaller and long-term ultimately weaker side of it in terms of economic and even military potential. They hold the upper hand for now but things don't look good if they keep moving in the same direction. It's a numbers game in the end the East has more people, more land, more resources and more motivation.

moose_man 4y ago
I don't know if this is serious or not to be quite honest. But I think the South China Sea and Taiwan provide ample tinder to spark an inferno in the very near term like the next 5 years. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-builds-mockups-us-navy-ships-area-used-missile-target-practice-2021-11-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-builds-mockups-us-... The point is, if no one knows what the stakes are, it becomes easy for an accident to escalate into a war. A plane collision leads to war, war-games around Taiwan lead to war. The military is on autopilot without a substantial debate about what the US should do. Neither side wants WWIII but neither did the people who stumbled in WWI. Even Hitler thought he would be able to take Poland without France or the UK intervening and was not happy when they declared war. There is no winner in WWIII. It's not a numbers game because we all die.
- jpgvm 4y ago
  IMO China has very clear doctrine that should make it very easy to avoid war with them. Taiwan is part of "One China". Violate that, expect war. China isn't really an aggressor otherwise. Little border skirmishes with India but that is going to get sorted out eventually once they finally decide on a damn border together. It's not like they are planning invasions of Japan, Philippines etc and not really relatable to either Ukraine currently or Poland in WWII. To me it seems pretty clear that China is happy to win economically. US really doesn't want that to happen so there is a good chance they start a war over Taiwan to prevent it.
  - moose_man 4y ago
    Nobody goes into world war thinking they are getting into a world war which is why they become world wars.
  - axus 4y ago
    I don't see how the US winning a war over Taiwan prevents China's economic prosperity. It seems more like both sides are perpetuating a stalemate for emotional reasons.
  - Steltek 4y ago
    If war starts because the US and Taiwan made some agreement, that would be China starting a war. They look quite trigger happy, in fact. Launching missiles in a tantrum and damaging foreign aircraft through stupid antics. You're also defining "economic win" as "able to exist independently of the West" but in practice it would be returning to a Cold War like status: no winners or losers because the game isn't over yet.
  - nonethewiser 4y ago
    What do you mean? If China invades Taiwan they are the aggressor, no?
stefan_ 4y ago
The BRICS coalition, wherein India hates them, Russia is a dysfunctional colony, Brazil is on the wrong side of the planet and South Africa.. its not clear why it made the list. Sorry, when the USSR collapsed, you didn't get multipolar, you got unipolar.
- jpgvm 4y ago
  They are all of their primary resource trading partners. It's not a military alliance and it doesn't need to be. It's a trade alliance that works for all parties (at this time).
alephnerd 4y ago
Ehn, BRICS as a block is overstated as well. It started off as a one off marketing term for GS's Asia practice which was going through a wild west phase in the early 2000s (1MBD scandal is the most notable of the scandals from that time). While there is some level of economic integration among all the BRICS, on a Grand Strategy standpoint it's not very cohesive. The only commonality they have is supporting a multipolar world - basically a bunch of regional Monroe Doctrines. The issue is, for RIC, their near abroads all clash with each other which leads to them concentrating on each other. Finally, any conversation about the BRICS ignores the reality that SK+Japan+Taiwan are the true financial behemoths in Asia from an FDI standpoint.
unity1001 4y ago
> They hold the upper hand for now They dont since Russian and Chinese SWIFT alternatives were launched.
nonethewiser 4y ago
The impetus for war is controlling Taiwan and pushing the U.S. out of the pacific.

alephnerd 4y ago

The topic of decoupling has only become mainstream/noticed by normies in the last 1-2 years. In reality, there has been an active economic decoupling going on since 2012-13. The primary manufacturers for intermediate parts (the main portion of the supply chain that Chinese industry is competitive in) are Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese conglomerates like SK Hynix, Samsung, LG, Toshiba, Panasonic, NEC, Mitsubishi, Foxconn, etc. All these companies began leaving for ASEAN in the 2012-17 period when political crises between PRC-Japan (Senkakou/Diayou Islands), Taiwan, and South Korea (THAAD) lead all 3 countries to move FDI to Vietnam or reopen factories in Thailand and Malaysia that moved to PRC in the 2000s. And this isn't just in Hardware. Even in Software, American VC investment in PRC peaked in 2015 before crashing after that. Basically, what I'm trying to say is those of us who have worked in or work adjacent to the policy space know that we are in a period of elevated tensions between the PRC and the US, but it's not at the "we're going to start a shooting war" level yet. The kind of hyper-hawkish and paranoid rhetoric among "normies" is ridiculous and I say that as a China Hawk. But then again, if you have intimate knowledge of how those specific agencies and governments operate, it starts looking less scary.

moose_man 4y ago
I mean if we just look at economic and diplomatic arenas war may not be on the table. The military policy on both sides are acting in a way where war is an inevitable outcome they must prepare for. China is practicing on mockups of US ships and building systems designed to take out US military assets. US military is in the process of dispersing forces to smaller bases in preparation. China's military practiced a full naval blockade of Taiwan this past summer. Both sides are in a slow rolling mobilization. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/06/07/anticipating-war-with-china-the-us-air-force-is-spreading-across-the-pacific/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/06/07/anticipatin... https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/15/asia/us-air-force-f-22-guam-tinian-exercise-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/15/asia/us-air-force-f-22-guam-t... https://www.armytimes.com/news/2022/10/11/army-prepares-for-dispersed-warfare-with-high-casualties/ https://www.armytimes.com/news/2022/10/11/army-prepares-for-... People may have been talking about decoupling for 1-2 years, but the military has been sprinting to prepare for the last decade. Look at the B-21 raider, there is a reason it was one of the quickest and most efficient programs in US contracting history.