13 ms·

Tell HN: The ratio of wants-to-be-hired to is-hiring is at a record high 0.94

• david927 4y ago
  I was curious and wanted to put that same data together -- so thanks. That curve looks terrible and yet it confirms what I expected.
• burlesona 4y ago
  I think you’d have to go further back to have better context, April 2021 was pretty frothy. But yes, the job market has cooled dramatically.
• ed_balls 4y ago
  in 2019 it was about 0.32 First who wants to be hired https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7685170 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7685170 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1350A5KGgmGI3Ed-tC7MPx2BgZiXknWLHWlmOAai063g/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1350A5KGgmGI3Ed-tC7MP...
  • madcaptenor 4y ago
    seems like it wouldn't be too hard, just tedious, to compile all the data.
    • madcaptenor 4y ago
      Fine, I'll start. These threads are easily found in Google. January 2020: 244 wants to be hired / 697 hiring = 35% February 2020: 227 / 677 = 34% March 2020: 349 / 776 = 45% April 2020: 521 / 601 = 87% May 2020: 329 / 686 = 48% June 2020: 305 / 659 = 46% July 2020: 280 / 680 = 41% August 2020: 410 / 828 = 50% September 2020: 346 / 698 = 50% October 2020: 295 / 810 = 36% November 2020: 259 / 807 = 32% December 2020: 274 / 766 = 36% January 2021: 286 / 846 = 34% February 2021: 232 / 1052 = 22% March 2021: 227 / 964 = 24%
      • ed_balls 4y ago
        https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=who%20is%20hiring&sort=byPopularity&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=Who%20wants%20to%20be%20hired&sort=byPopularity&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... Date | Who is hiring? | Who wants to be hired | ratio Jan 2015,334,98,0.29 Feb 2015,643,169,0.26 Mar 2015,680,177,0.26 Apr 2015,952,194,0.20 May 2015,891,199,0.22 Jun 2015,759,276,0.36 Jul 2015,1094,142,0.12 Aug 2015,974,176,0.18 Sep 2015,872,188,0.21 Oct 2015,1136,99,0.08 Nov 2015,896,99,0.11 Dec 2015,1000,95,0.09
        • ed_balls 4y ago
          Date | Who is hiring? | Who wants to be hired | ratio Jan 2016,471,110,0.23 Feb 2016,781,127,0.15 Mar 2016,825,202,0.24 Apr 2016,719,280,0.38 May 2016,983,166,0.16 Jun 2016,1007,248,0.24 Jul 2016,898,209,0.23 Aug 2016,945,118,0.12 Sep 2016,911,162,0.17 Oct 2016,989,261,0.26 Nov 2016,1121,249,0.22 Dec 2016,840,120,0.14
        • ed_balls 4y ago
          Date | Who is hiring? | Who wants to be hired | ratio Jan 2017,939,275,0.29 Feb 2017,1236,106,0.08 Mar 2017,1069,114,0.10 Apr 2017,956,163,0.17 May 2017,1096,236,0.21 Jun 2017,994,101,0.10 Jul 2017,982,105,0.10 Aug 2017,955,224,0.23 Sep 2017,957,113,0.11 Oct 2017,1136,126,0.11 Nov 2017,1199,145,0.12 Dec 2017,1000,69,0.06
      • ed_balls 4y ago
        Date | Who is hiring? | Who wants to be hired | ratio Jan 2018,911,84,0.09 Feb 2018,1070,76,0.07 Mar 2018,1187,85,0.07 Apr 2018,1084,142,0.13 May 2018,1198,69,0.05 Jun 2018,911,90,0.09 Jul 2018,860,122,0.14 Aug 2018,1025,83,0.08 Sep 2018,922,73,0.07 Oct 2018,1110,113,0.10 Nov 2018,1057,162,0.15 Dec 2018,954,182,0.18
        • ritzaco 4y ago
          Added (blindly) the above data to a spreadsheet with a graph here[0]. If anyone wants to add the 2019 data in a comment, I'll update the sheet. [0] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bjPl3a0ciH6U9-OaLXGQ15f4jrdsd4hjNltd8ol8qC4/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bjPl3a0ciH6U9-OaLXGQ...
  • gabrielsroka 4y ago
    This JavaScript seems to work. You can run it from the browser console or from node.js. (async function () { // see https://hn.algolia.com/api console.clear(); const posts = {}; var page = 0; var oldDate; while (true) { console.log('fetching page', page); const r = await fetch(`https://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search_by_date?tags=story,author_whoishiring&page=${page++}`); const res = await r.json(); if (res.message) { console.log(res.message); } else { for (const h of res.hits) { var match; if (match = h.title.match(/Who wants to be hired\? \((.*)\)/i)) { var date = match[1]; if (date != oldDate) {posts[date] = {}; oldDate = date;} posts[date].wants = h.num_comments; if (posts[date].hiring) posts[date].ratio = posts[date].wants / posts[date].hiring; } else if (match = h.title.match(/Who is hiring\? \((.*)\)/i)) { date = match[1]; if (date != oldDate) {posts[date] = {}; oldDate = date;} posts[date].hiring = h.num_comments; if (posts[date].wants) posts[date].ratio = posts[date].wants / posts[date].hiring; } } } if (page == res.nbPages) break; } console.table(posts); })();
• iLoveOncall 4y ago
  There are quite a lot of people hiring which have multiple job postings though. It doesn't invalidate that it is the highest but it doesn't mean that it's almost 1:1. It also doesn't mean that those people are out of a job. My company is mandating RTO 3 days a week, that's a good reason to look for a new position, while still being employed.
  • 0xbadcafebee 4y ago
    Yep. Large corporate (non-tech) job boards have hundreds of listings open for tech jobs
    • sohnakukkar 4y ago
      Can you name some corporate job boards?
  • karaterobot 4y ago
    I think it might invalidate it. At the very least it points out that this is really measuring the ratio of comments, not jobs and candidates.
    • jasonlotito 4y ago
      That's what the post says. > Counting the comments in the who wants to be hired thread and dividing by the number of comments in who is hiring.
      • karaterobot 4y ago
        Yep, saw that.
    • iLoveOncall 4y ago
      I think it doesn't invalidate it because this situation of having multiple job postings for a single comment is not new and I imagine is relatively the same every month.
• dudul 4y ago
  I have to say the amount of spam emails I'm getting from recruiters has decreased a lot - also I took a new job a few months ago so maybe I'm just being filtered out for now.
  • kilroy123 4y ago
    I'm getting none these days.
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  • zucked 4y ago
    Similar experience. Since October of 22' the number of recruitment mail I'm getting has decreased from several a week to a few a month.
  • tayo42 4y ago
    I'm getting alot less and the ones I am getting are real low balls in comp often.
  • dalys 4y ago
    I quit to run my own businesses in the pandemic and the amount of LinkedIn messages have increased. I'm not even in tech anymore. I'm not getting a huge amount by any means, but during 2023 exactly one per week on average. If anyone in EU willing to relocate to Stockholm with background in backend python / full stack, I guess I can connect you to at least 10 recruiters. Many of them explicitly ask for referrals.
  • varispeed 4y ago
    I am getting about the same number of offers, but the pay has dropped substantially. It's depressing, as if I would be looking for a job now, I'd rather look for non-tech job that is paying less than selling my knowledge so cheap. Alternatively I'd go off the market completely and use any safety nets I've been paying massive amounts of tax for years.
  • Ancalagon 4y ago
    Idk if it my experience is abnormal, but I'm still getting a shit ton of recruiter inmail. When I look into the salary ranges, they are about what I was seeing in 2021. Maybe I'm just lucky. But for anyone else looking - chin-up, I think there are more opportunities out there still.
• muzani 4y ago
  I'd like to see data go all the way back to 2020, which was when some people said had the worst job market, because of the global lockdowns. But thanks for the data anyway. It does amuse me that we're still at more people hiring than looking for jobs. It's a stark contrast to other industries, where the power is normally in the hands of employers. Another thing to consider is that we've had layoffs recently, i.e. people without jobs encouraged to find new jobs. In the past, wants-to-be-hired may be a little low because usually people don't want to be seen looking for a job while employed.
  • red-iron-pine 4y ago
    It had the worst job market -- if you weren't able to work from home. Most of the world ain't in STEM. Many of us, myself included, already did that. I had to wear a mask to do my "morning commute" to get coffee, but otherwise my 9-5 was mostly the same.
    • dimitrios1 4y ago
      Most of STEM isn't at home, either.
  • prottog 4y ago
    > It does amuse me that we're still at more people hiring than looking for jobs. It's a stark contrast to other industries, where the power is normally in the hands of employers. In my area, many businesses outside of the tech sector is actively hiring and can't find enough people. I think Covid triggered a demographic shift with many Boomers retiring (or dying) and that gap has not been filled.
    • incone123 4y ago
      This is an interesting contrast with another comment that said it should be possible to find another tech job if (among other factors) the candidate was not too old.
    • ShadowBanThis01 4y ago
• bilsbie 4y ago
  That seems like a good signal to track. Btw does anyone ever get hired from the who wants to be hired thread?
  • nati0n 4y ago
    I got hired from that thread, for what it's worth. Love my job.
  • alain94040 4y ago
    Yes. I think of 5 people I contacted over 3 years, one got hired. (and it was a very successful hire)
  • red-iron-pine 4y ago
    Anec-data but I found this site via a friend who frequented here, and he had previously gotten a job with a start-up via one of those posts. He rapidly left -- maybe 6-9 months? -- but got a job nonetheless.
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  • steve_adams_86 4y ago
    I’ve been contacted through who’s hiring a lot, though ultimately I was hired at a company where I knew the team well and was aligned with their goals/methodology/comp/etc. I have the impression that who’s hiring is an excellent place to put yourself out there, though. I had a lot of exciting leads (a few of which I still follow because I liked the people I interviewed with and what they were building).
  • ativzzz 4y ago
    +1 for current job being from that thread
  • bryanlarsen 4y ago
    I did.
  • hnrodey 4y ago
• krembanan 4y ago
  It might even be >1 considering many postings in the Who's hiring have multiple comments (some 10+).
  • atwebb 4y ago
    Who's hiring also has many positions in each listing though, if that is consistent across time it wouldn't seem to matter as much.
• nico 4y ago
  People are realizing that AI is changing everything and they don’t want to do BS work that can be automated. They are getting inspired by the coming revolution. Interesting times we are living in.
• setgree 4y ago
  The true ratio of would-be-hired to is-hired on HN is lower than 0.94. Many (most?) posts in the who's hiring thread mention multiple positions, e.g. the word "engineers", plural, occurs 91 times on the first page.
  • jstx1 4y ago
    Sure but the same consideration applies to previous months too and the point of the post was about the trend (being so much higher than usual), not about the actual value of the ratio (which on its own seems irrelevant and hard to interpret).
  • Kranar 4y ago
    Much like looking at an exchange rate between two currencies, what matters isn't the exact ratio at any one moment but how that ratio changes over time.
• myth_drannon 4y ago
  April was the lowest count for "Who is hiring" ever.
• abledon 4y ago
  matches the jobs available trend in NA: https://www.trueup.io/job-trend https://www.trueup.io/job-trend
• 23B1 4y ago
  I'm a CRO/CGO – a suit. My biggest struggle with HN wants-to-be-hired threads is that I desperately want to work with small and midsize startups who are serious about growth – but most of the JDs are for technical jobs. Besides the usual job boards, is anyone aware of a good place to connect with founders who want a healthy hockey stick and holistic, healthy growth?
  • perlgeek 4y ago
    I'd try the Acquired community, https://www.acquired.fm/ https://www.acquired.fm/
    • 23B1 4y ago
      Thanks a ton, genuinely appreciate it.
  • el_nahual 4y ago
    One avenue is to go through the VCs. 1. Choose industries you like (fintech, hospitality, consumer, whatever) 2. There are ~5 or so VCs in each industry that are absolutely leaders 3. Often these VCs have roles for "Platform" or "Portfolio services" 4. Message that person (I like twitter for this over LinkedIn and even over email), sell yourself. 5. Usually this can result in an email that is sent to the entire portfolio telling them you're looking.
    • 23B1 4y ago
      I feel like an idiot for not thinking of this sooner. Thank you, great advice.
  • avinassh 4y ago
    [dead]
  • ayewo 4y ago
    There are a number of job boards you could try including the ones run by DemandCurve and MKT1 https://jobs.demandcurve.com/ https://jobs.demandcurve.com/ https://www.mkt1.co/marketers https://www.mkt1.co/marketers
• the_af 4y ago
  As an aside, I'm not currently looking for a job (knock on wood) but people close to me are and... the interview process seems harder than ever. Now you get recorded, told you cannot alt-tab, take home assignments are very strict for companies that aren't even close to a FAANG (I mean, if you're applying to Google it comes with the territory, but why is your random startup so strict?), you are automatically graded on your command of English, etc. There are still the garbage job offers where they'll hire anyone with a pulse, but unless your situation is dire you don't want those. It all feels vaguely dystopic and depressing. The only consolation is that only now we realize what it felt for people outside our industry. We had it easy!
  • dgb23 4y ago
    Which professions hire like this? I can’t think of any.
    • asynchronous 4y ago
      Yeah genuinely that reeks of someone who has never worked outside of tech. Job hiring sucks in a lot of fields but I would say the trades as a whole have this completely figured out and the process is nowhere near as obtuse as in tech.
      • the_af 4y ago
        Oh, I meant that we had it easy, not that the hiring process for other jobs looks similar.
    • jpgvm 4y ago
      Pretty much none that I'm aware of. My brother is an actual engineer. They get hired on past relevant experience and simple interview. Of course he also needs the relevant credentials and professional membership so there is that... you can't keep those if you mess up and you won't get recommendations if you are an ahole. A lot of my friends are doctors. If you are qualified and want the position it's yours. Demand > supply very much so. Hospitality is as cut-throat as always, everyone is welcome to try - it's up to you to survive. Though I guess the first few trial shifts are the most similar to programming in that way but it's still very much "can you do the job" not "can you remember this esoteric thing you might have done once in college but otherwise not touched in a decade". So yeah. Programming stands alone in this sort of gauntlet hiring system in my experience. Other fields are happy to take past experience and recommendations as they are instead of devising some sort of "test". I would say outside of programming there is a bit more of the personality test sort of things though - especially big corporates, you could probably screw one up badly enough for HR to block you.
• WinstonSmith84 4y ago
  I'd like to see a bit more data pre-covid, but this is a very insightful and concerning chart. Btw, to me it's not relevant whether we still see more comments into the is-hiring vs. wants-to-be-hired, this ratio doesn't mean much, there are other variables to consider. It's rather the uptrend which is meaningful.
• TradingPlaces 4y ago
  Still under parity, which is amazing
• wesnerm2 4y ago
  This post is not valid because most companies post jobs in Hackernews after several days. In addition, the is-hiring post opened on April 3, 2023--a little over 24 hours ago. As other people have noticed, April appeared to be the lowest month in new jobs, but the true numbers won't be evident until the month is over. The ratio will likely fall lower with the reasonable assumption that a greater proportion of people seeking work post earlier in the month than of companies seeking employees.
• rossdavidh 4y ago
  Very interesting chart, thanks! One comment, is that it is probably more a measure of "which way is the balance of power tilting" than it is "what is the actual ratio". Many employers who could not find anyone would post the job everywhere they could think of, while people looking just read the "who is hiring" posts and then applied to the employer rather than post in the "who wants to be hired". Now the shoe is on the other foot, but that doesn't mean the ratio has shifted all that much in reality. It is a definite sign as to which side has the surplus, however.
  • tempsy 4y ago
    Can a once trendy tech company like Birds scooter (stock at 22 cents down -98%) really be considered to have the upper hand? I think if you're a FAANG employer that is considered "safe" definitely yes, but there's a pile of zombie companies that have been wrecked by end of ZIRP and have a hard time understanding how they retain or hire anyone.
    • jacooper 4y ago
      ZIRP?
      • quickthrower2 4y ago
        Zero Interest Rate Policy
• Tade0 4y ago
  For a few months now, whenever I looked at the "Who is hiring?" thread I couldn't help but think "truly, who is?"
• richarddeasis 4y ago
  I definitely regret not interviewing for jobs right away when I graduated a few months ago. At the moment I was thinking that in a few months the job market would still be hot. A few months ago, recruiters were reaching out to me. I started applying last week and a single job posting would have more than 1k applicants which was not the case months ago. On top of that, as a new grad, finding early career positions is difficult. Most of the opening are SR level.
  • siftrics 4y ago
    You should be applying before you graduate, regardless of the status of the job market.
    • richarddeasis 4y ago
      I was offered some jobs and a few internship. But a few months ago I was considering going to get my masters, mba, or law school. My parents algo got sick during that time and i had to take care of them. So it wasn't really a priority for me at that time to get a job vs other urgent matters.
  • bumby 4y ago
    Don’t be afraid to apply for jobs that are (slightly) outside your experience range. Often, these posts are “pie in the sky” wants, not hard requirements.
    • richarddeasis 4y ago
      Good to know! Now I just got to keep grinding to be competitive against more experienced devs applying for the same position. Seems like its gonna be really difficult when theres gonna be at least a few hundreds of them applying for the same position. Not sure what would motivate an employer to hire early career vs someone with 5 years of experience. Maybe paying new hires less than experienced ones?
      • reactreflux1 4y ago
• colmanhumphrey 4y ago
  Here is a chart going back to 2014: https://slight.run/graphs/colman/ratio_of_seekers_to_hirers_hacker_news https://slight.run/graphs/colman/ratio_of_seekers_to_hirers_... Not quite as drastic as yours, but still not ideal. The underlying query and data source: https://slight.run/apps/colman/job_seekers_vs_job_hiring_hacker_news https://slight.run/apps/colman/job_seekers_vs_job_hiring_hac... I'm restricting to top-level comments here, because those seem like a better proxy than all comments (excluding some discussion on a given post for example).
  • SilasX 4y ago
    To answer what you were probably going to look for in the link: peak was March 2020 (1.19), when Covid got real, bottom was April 2018 (0.067), don't know any particular significance of that month.
    • version_five 4y ago
      April 2018 sounds about right for the tech bubble peak - iirc softbank was still in full swing, everyone was "blitzscaling", it was peak exuberance. Not that the music stopped right after that, but even into 2019 things were starting to decline and the VC industry was getting slightly more conservative.
    • qqqwerty 4y ago
      FED started raising interest rates in 2017[1]. The market didn't really start reacting until 2018, and by 2019 the FED got cold feet and was lowering rates again. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU
      • daveguy 4y ago
        Is cold-feet a euphemism for "harassed by an orange toad"?
  • ppaattrriicckk 4y ago
    If anybody is interested, maybe this should be considered along with the core inflation rates - which is high in the US (peaked at 7% within the last 12 months and currently at 5.5%) and possibly still rising in the EU (12-month peak [now] at 5.7%). If the central banks are going to stick to their declared purpose of keeping this around 2% we're still in for further rate hikes, I would imagine. * https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-ra... * https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/core-inflation-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/core-inflation-rate I know it's not within the desired behaviour on HN to simply write "thank you!", and I hope I did provide a bit more than just that. That being said: Thank you! Also to ed_balls and madcaptenor for collecting data in the other thread.
• willmeyers 4y ago
  Doesn't the whoshiring threads get filled out throughout the week. Shouldn't a better analysis be done this weekend?
  • soneca 4y ago
    This happened last month too, a data analysis of Who Is Hiring one or two days after it is published with a pessimistic conclusion. Then, one week later, you realize the number of posts is back to an ok level (even improving)
• projectazorian 4y ago
  There’s an odd dynamic in the market right now. In addition to layoffs, people who are subject to RTO are trying to find jobs at remote employers, so there’s an abnormally high number of already-employed folks on the job hunt right now. Not to mention all the juniors having trouble finding work at the moment. Meanwhile remote employers are seeing less employee turnover, so don’t need to do much hiring, especially since many grew headcount considerably in 2021/2022. Which means many of those people looking for remote jobs aren’t finding a lot of success. (We’re remote and hiring for backfills only right now, not that there are many of those - and I suspect a lot of other companies are in the same spot.) Remote roles are likely over-represented on HN, so if there are a lot of candidates chasing those roles, you’d expect a lot of growth in “who wants to be hired” posts. I’d expect this dynamic to shift in the back half of the year. People are finding out about promotions and comp changes around this time and many will be disappointed. This will likely cause a lot of people sitting tight at remote companies to get back on the market. Some will find roles elsewhere, creating more backfills and more hiring. Not to mention that there’s a glut of late-stage companies seeking to IPO when the IPO market reopens, likely later this year or early next. When companies IPO they usually hire a lot beforehand to tighten up processes, then do even more hiring a few months later as existing employees get their exits and decide to move on or take a break. So the medium/long term outlook is still positive, at least.
  • 71a54xd 4y ago
    It also seems like the market has strongly skewed to the senior side of things (8+ yrs exp).
    • Workaccount2 4y ago
      Our entry level guy is GPT-4.
      • baremetal 4y ago
        Yeah it's like having a junior you can hand small bits of code off too.
    • 4y ago
• thomasahle 4y ago
  Still below 1 though.
• ed_balls 4y ago
  Here is the data from 2015 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1350A5KGgmGI3Ed-tC7MPx2BgZiXknWLHWlmOAai063g/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1350A5KGgmGI3Ed-tC7MP... Ratio Who wants to be hired?/Who is hiring? 2015 0,20 2016 0,21 2017 0,14 2018 0,10 2019 0,32 2020 0,44 2021 0,26 2022 0,40 2023 0,83
• mtnGoat 4y ago
  I’ve always found the who’s hiring threads to be interesting. I don’t think all of those companies are actively hiring, but rather like to look like they are for some reason I don’t understand. My reasoning is two fold: I applied to some a couple years ago while job hunting and got worse response rate than most other sources. And some seem to be hiring for the same position for many months in a row. Though the second reason could be due to having extremely high set of requirements, but is usually a sign of a company to avoid in my experience.
  • giraffe_lady 4y ago
    To placate overworked employees begging for relief.
  • hollaur 4y ago
    Many companies post jobs just for backlinks or to get more traffic to their site.
  • 93po 4y ago
    a few reasons to list job ad when not seriously hiring: 1. collect resumes for when you are hiring 2. to look like a healthy, growing company even if you aren't 3. to find people who are desperate who you can underpay (smaller owner-run companies are more guilty of this) 4. to lure in people with a more interesting job ad than what the company really needs, then try to convince the candidate to fill a position for a less desirable or lower paying job
• quickthrower2 4y ago
  A sentiment analysis of threads like this vs. a year ago would also be interesting