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> "why war when we can have commerce"? Can't help but sad chuckle over this whole clash of rams battle of perspectives and the fact that Russia, Ukraine and ot

> "why war when we can have commerce"? Can't help but sad chuckle over this whole clash of rams battle of perspectives and the fact that Russia, Ukraine and other western countries had somewhat great relationships at the beginning of the century. One could ask the same question from the Russian perspective when analyzing how Russia-West relations have deteriorated from Russia being in love with it, towards Russia having a lovecraftian fear of it (from Russian perspective, this is more of a proxy war with the West). This is actually the TLDR of Putin's Munich speech in late 2000-something. I wonder what could be games theory solution here. Russia and the West don't trust each other and can't meet each-other expectations of peaceful coexistence - Ukraine got caught in the crossfire. What could hypothetically serve as a common ground for aligning the perspectives before it inertly escalates too far?

nradov 4y ago
That's the wrong question to ask. From an amoral game theory perspective, the real question is: how can we bleed Russia to death? The ideal outcome would be to trigger multiple civil wars in Russia where various provinces break away from Moscow, leaving the rump successor state no more of a threat than North Korea. In that scenario, Russia would still have to be taken seriously as a nuclear threat but would no longer have enough conventional force to seriously threaten most of their neighbors.
- smegger001 4y ago
  thats not ideal either a bunch of breakaway states would be eaten by china which is not something NATO wants either. from the wets prospective a quick internal cue falloewed by regim change to a more western friendly pro democracy leader that ideally is afraid of china would be the best outcome.
  - actionfromafar 4y ago
    The best outcome, temporarily. It's not a stable situation. What happens next? Russia will get eaten by China anyways, the question now is, will it be piecemeal or in one big chunk.
    - foverzar 4y ago
      > Russia will get eaten by China anyways Wonder what is the realistic incentive for that?
      - actionfromafar 4y ago
        China will not annex Russia or anything like that. But their government has everything to gain from extracting concessions from Russia. Russias influence is already waning in Central Asia, and China is eager to fill that role. Russia is on its way to becoming hamstrung by China. Who else can Russia turn to? China does not want Russia to implode and fracture, because that is an unstable situation for them. But if Russia was to fracture, you can be sure that China will want to control the pieces bordering China. They don't want chaos on their borders, or the power vacuum there somehow filled by western powers.
        foverzar 4y ago
        But how would the relationship you're describing be different from early post-Cold War era relationships between Russia and Europe?
        actionfromafar 4y ago
        Europe is more democratic and has more liberty than China.
        foverzar 4y ago
        Might be, but that wouldn't affect Russia that much specifically. China's and Europe's attitudes and practices towards their let's say "dependent trade and strategic partners" is a different story, but EU can hardly boast on that front, judging e.g. by various African states.

nradov 4y ago

That's the wrong question to ask. From an amoral game theory perspective, the real question is: how can we bleed Russia to death? The ideal outcome would be to trigger multiple civil wars in Russia where various provinces break away from Moscow, leaving the rump successor state no more of a threat than North Korea. In that scenario, Russia would still have to be taken seriously as a nuclear threat but would no longer have enough conventional force to seriously threaten most of their neighbors.

smegger001 4y ago
thats not ideal either a bunch of breakaway states would be eaten by china which is not something NATO wants either. from the wets prospective a quick internal cue falloewed by regim change to a more western friendly pro democracy leader that ideally is afraid of china would be the best outcome.
- actionfromafar 4y ago
  The best outcome, temporarily. It's not a stable situation. What happens next? Russia will get eaten by China anyways, the question now is, will it be piecemeal or in one big chunk.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > Russia will get eaten by China anyways Wonder what is the realistic incentive for that?
    - actionfromafar 4y ago
      China will not annex Russia or anything like that. But their government has everything to gain from extracting concessions from Russia. Russias influence is already waning in Central Asia, and China is eager to fill that role. Russia is on its way to becoming hamstrung by China. Who else can Russia turn to? China does not want Russia to implode and fracture, because that is an unstable situation for them. But if Russia was to fracture, you can be sure that China will want to control the pieces bordering China. They don't want chaos on their borders, or the power vacuum there somehow filled by western powers.
      - foverzar 4y ago
        But how would the relationship you're describing be different from early post-Cold War era relationships between Russia and Europe?
        actionfromafar 4y ago
        Europe is more democratic and has more liberty than China.
        foverzar 4y ago
        Might be, but that wouldn't affect Russia that much specifically. China's and Europe's attitudes and practices towards their let's say "dependent trade and strategic partners" is a different story, but EU can hardly boast on that front, judging e.g. by various African states.