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The next few weeks/months are going to be very interesting. Saudi Arabia has doubled down on its new direction. Japan/EU seems at edge with the war in Ukraine.
by csomar 4y ago
The next few weeks/months are going to be very interesting. Saudi Arabia has doubled down on its new direction. Japan/EU seems at edge with the war in Ukraine. China is making new moves in the global financial scene.
The US has accumulated significant political debt in the recent years. They have significantly abused their position with the US dollars hegemony. In this recent conflict, the cost burdened Europe and the allies more than the US. Europe, except for Poland and the Baltics, does not seem to be too enthusiastic for this war.
I wonder if the US has a joker card or the downfall risk being a spectacular one.
- boeingUH60 4y agoMaybe the US can finally invade Saudi Arabia, lol Edit: Was just making a joke. I’m not a warmonger.
- csomar 4y agoThe US has significant military presence in the whole middle-east. I think the Saudis know that, now, the US does really not want to open a new front. Especially with the Taiwan/China situation. Invading Saudi Arabia is really complex because there is more oil coming from there than Saudi Arabia itself. Expect oil prices over $500 overnight.
- boringg 4y agoCan you describe why you think the US has "significantly abused their position with the US dollars hegemony."
- GartzenDeHaes 4y agoMaybe the 40% currency devaluation?
- csomar 4y agoFATCA, protectionism hidden behind AML/KYC, money printing at the expense of the other countries' reserves, sanctions or the threat of sanctions, political requests for IMF/WB funding, etc... Really, it's a shitshow and the US is rarely the good guy here.
- travisporter 4y agoI really don’t see how protectionism hides behind these acronyms Sanctions would be a reasonable argument I personally agree with
- boringg 4y agoI mean you are just throwing everything that the US does into one bucket called "US dollar hegemony" without discrimination. I'm not saying they don't leverage their dollar power I disagree that it "significantly abused their position" via the alphabet soup of complaints above.
- missedthecue 4y agoI think the US sanctions regime, based on the supremacy of the US dollar, is nakedly abused. For instance, sanctioning ICC prosecutors who investigated US service members for warcrimes.
- boringg 4y agoIn this case you're talking about the moves by the Trump GOP administration.
- samarthr1 4y agoFor good or bad, it's still the legitimately elected US government. The Trump government represented the population of the USA, and was elected in accordance with its own rules. The consequences or fruits thereof belong to the citizens of the nation.
- boringg 4y agoI understand - but to use that as an example of a pattern of the US government significantly abusing their US dollar hegemony doesn't equate.
- whitemary 4y ago[flagged]
- boringg 4y agoPurely speculative conspiracy theory here.
- petodo 4y agoYes, that's why US does everything they can to prevent investigating who caused it, same with UN and US allies when it come to investigation who sabtaged NS. But of course it's conspiracy theory, let's just label it and ignore smoking gun.
- boringg 4y agoThe other possibility is EU member states and investigating it would further inflame internal tensions in an already tense time and erode support for the war effort. There are many many possibilities - which is why the version you are putting forward is labelled a conspiracy theory until otherwise proven.
- ceejayoz 4y agoHersh thinks, as of Feb 23 2023, that "the Russians have yet to put any of their main forces in". (https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1628898816953909251 https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1628898816953909251) I dunno what happened to him, but you should probably read his allegations with that context in mind.
- throwaway6734 4y agoThe US is the largest oil producer in the world, one of the largest producers of food, one of the top innovators, has relatively healthy demographics, is surround by allies (one of which produces oil and fertilizer), and has the most dominant military on the planet. Your outlook is significantly more gloomy than reality
- chatmasta 4y agoWhile this is all true, "cashing in" on any of those advantages is not something that can be done peacefully, so perhaps a gloomy outlook is warranted.
- throwaway6734 4y agoI don't understand? The US can disrupt food/oil/financial markets/innovation more than any other planet on earth. All of these can be flexed peacefully
- chatmasta 4y agoDisruption of financial markets is not a precision weapon, and it frequently backfires. Currency wars aligning with multipolar powers makes them even more disruptive. Once the US defense of the dollar turns from theoretical to reality, it necessitates violence. You can say "the USD has all this power as a reserve currency because of US military power projection," and it may be true, but once other powers start to align and actively compete with the dollar as the reserve currency, the US needs to actively respond. And that means making good on their threats, not just projecting them. Thus, global financial instability leads to violence.
- starkd 4y agoAnd the US military is having a recruitment issue. Not to mention new recruits tend not to be up to fitness standards. The two wars at once standard is questionable at best.
- 4y ago
- matthewdgreen 4y agoAs long as China and Russia remain peaceful and don’t threaten their neighbors with aggression, they can absolutely win the war for hearts and minds and thus assemble a broad coalition to buck the US’s interests. The problem here is that Russia has already invaded its neighbors and proven to be a security risk for Europe, while China is doing everything it can to signal to its own population that war with Taiwan is imminent and to its neighbors that it’s a major threat. Maybe they’re all joking (well, except for Russia) but the very real security threat posed by China and Russia to their neighbors puts an upper “cap” on the effectiveness of a broad anti-US alliance. The backstop of US dominance isn’t feelings, it’s the global desire for survival.
- tpoacher 4y agoSo what you're saying is that it is not in their enemies' best interests to allow them to remain peaceful. > China is doing everything it can to signal to its own population that war with Taiwan is imminent I haven't seen this at all, though it may well be true. What I have seen, however, is a sudden regularity in articles over the last few months on how China is a threat to Taiwan, how everyone including somehow China really seems to admit it's very much not a part of China, and how its allies need to be prepared and proactive about "defending" it from China. Not saying Chucky isn't a bully, but I can't shake the feeling that going round telling people how you're rounding up the gang and are preparing to give him and his chums a lesson, isn't exactly the peace-maintaining de-escalation people think it is. Especially in the absence of an "if he tries something" clause.
- matthewdgreen 4y agoNot really sure what to make of this comment. You start by admitting you're not really sure if China has been threatening Taiwan, but then conclude that the US is probably at fault for it anyway. Also not sure what "rounding up the gang and preparing to give China a lesson" means here.
- Ekaros 4y agoOn other hand. Not getting involved in others' conflicts might go well down in Africa for example.
- 0xDEF 4y ago>Europe, except for Poland and the Baltics, does not seem to be too enthusiastic for this war. Why do blatantly false statements about Europe keep getting upvoted on HN? The European public overwhelmingly supports Ukraine and military aid to Ukraine: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20221205IPR60901/eu-citizens-support-for-ukraine-is-solid-eurobarometer-survey-finds https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20221205IP...
- oezi 4y agoNobody is enthusiastic for war. But since Russia has failed in their winter offensive and is experiencing unsustainable losses, it would be shortsighted to force Ukraine to negotiate for peace unless it involves a complete withdrawal of Russian troops to pre-2014 borders.