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"I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep" - Vladimir Vladimirovich, master strategist "Whoa, if countries are annexed willy

"I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep" - Vladimir Vladimirovich, master strategist "Whoa, if countries are annexed willy nilly then we better join NATO before it happens to us" - Every single one of those doorsteps

pjc50 4y ago
The stupid thing is that NATO already have a land border with Russia before even 2007: Estonia and Latvia. Both of which were concerned about being invaded by Russia because they have terrible memories of the last time. (Ignoring Kaliningrad, which has a border with Lithuania and Poland but is not militarily defensible, and the awkward satellite state of Belarus)
- alkonaut 4y ago
  Yup. And Norway. And Poland + Lithuania if we count Kaliningrad. The NATO land border just grew by about twice. I don't think this expansion affects any military balance as much as Russia tries to claim though.
- cowbolt 4y ago
  Maybe a bit pedantic, but Norway (founding member of NATO) shares a border with Russia, although the invasion concern is less pressing.
tlogan 4y ago
There is an old Serbian joke: do you know why Serbia is an Russian ally? Because Russia is far away.
jcranmer 4y ago
I can't take credit for this, but: Putin was looking to Finlandize NATO, but ended up NATOizing Finland instead.
tommiegannert 4y ago
> I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep Even without involving Finland, it's worse than that. If he successfully invades and conquers Ukraine, he will certainly have NATO at his doorstep. I doubt this was his real reasoning. Maybe the plan was to take only as much of Ukraine to show that he could, if he wanted to, take the whole. Effectively turning the Ukraine into a no-mans-land and maintaining the threat of "don't join NATO, or else..." And Finland doesn't have oil to profit from, so he likely had no plans of ever touching that wasp's nest. I'm not a politician nor military strategist, but I prefer not underestimating powerful people when thinking about their strategies.
- cableshaft 4y ago
  Technically NATO is already 'at their doorstep'. Norway, Estonia, and Latvia share a border with mainland Russia (with Estonia and Latvia being much closer to Moscow than Ukraine is), and Lithuania and Poland also directly border Kaliningrad, which is Russian territory, and Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey only have the Black Sea separating them.
  - Animatronio 4y ago
    Yes, but only technically. What matters is the advanced weapons system each of these countries has on its territory. Think Aegis Ashore and the likes of that. Otherwise, they're just empty land (from a military viewpoint).
    - khochesh_kushat 4y ago
      If we free ourselves of the bounds of what is technically true, then we can justify nearly anything. I'm not sure it's a productive line of reasoning.
      - Animatronio 4y ago
        What are you trying to say here? Technically true is still true, so we should take it into account when making a decision.
tyingq 4y ago
It doesn't sound terribly different from the domino theory that led the US to wage war in Vietnam.
causi 4y ago
It was never about NATO. It's about the Bessarabian Gap and the Black Sea. Putin wants the potential invasion routes into Russia.
- bshipp 4y ago
  No one was ever going to invade a country with ICBMs. The invasion occurred because of Ukraine's movement toward the EU which, eventually, would curtail the ability of Putin and the oligarchs to swindle Russias oil and gas wealth through rampant price fixing and kick-backs. Everything else was rhetoric.
  - unmole 4y ago
    > The invasion occurred because of Ukraine's movement toward the EU What meaningful move did Ukraine make towards joining EU to trigger an invasion?
    - bshipp 4y ago
      You mean beyond the 2014 Maidan Revolution and restoration of the 2004 constitutional modifications that began the process of moving toward the EU? Or the 2019 constitutional amendment that placed joining the EU and NATO as a strategic objective for Ukraine?
      - unmole 4y ago
        > r the 2019 constitutional amendment that placed joining the EU and NATO as a strategic objective for Ukraine? TIL!
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Or the 2019 constitutional amendment that placed joining the EU and NATO as a strategic objective for Ukraine? Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014. Pretending this counts is like charging a rape victim with criminal assault because they fought back.
throwaway4aday 4y ago
Aggressive war is inexcusable and I condemn all nations that engage in it including Russia and the United States. Ukraine has a right to its sovereignty just as all other nations do, but what you posted is shallow thinking. Look at a map of Europe, put yourself in the mind of a highly suspicious and pessimistic person and ask yourself "how would I invade Russia?" "how do I get an SRBM or MRBM within striking range of Moscow?" "how do I increase my ability to have Russian speaking agents plausibly cross into and out of Russia?" Now put yourself in the mind of someone else seeking power and look at the map and, keeping an eye to history, ask yourself "what is the most effective way to destabilize Russia without involving US forces?" Both parties are playing a very dangerous game that has a non-zero chance of ending with a nuclear exchange, limited or not. If peace was the goal then both sides need to agree to an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of both military and political forces. A new agreement needs to be reached that places Ukraine as a neutral, sovereign country and both sides should pay for reconstruction efforts and restitution to survivors. Of course, peace is never the goal.
- 0xBDB 4y ago
  "Ukraine as a neutral, sovereign country" Based on what Ukraine at least appears to want, especially now, if it is sovereign it won't be neutral, and if forced to be neutral it isn't really sovereign.
  - throwaway4aday 4y ago
    Check your logic. If you want to be my room mate and I refuse, does that make you less of an individual?
- manuelabeledo 4y ago
  > Look at a map of Europe, put yourself in the mind of a highly suspicious and pessimistic person and ask yourself "how would I invade Russia?" "how do I get an SRBM or MRBM within striking range of Moscow?" "how do I increase my ability to have Russian speaking agents plausibly cross into and out of Russia?" You don't need Ukraine to do any of this. Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members already.
- 4y ago

pjc50 4y ago

The stupid thing is that NATO already have a land border with Russia before even 2007: Estonia and Latvia. Both of which were concerned about being invaded by Russia because they have terrible memories of the last time. (Ignoring Kaliningrad, which has a border with Lithuania and Poland but is not militarily defensible, and the awkward satellite state of Belarus)

alkonaut 4y ago
Yup. And Norway. And Poland + Lithuania if we count Kaliningrad. The NATO land border just grew by about twice. I don't think this expansion affects any military balance as much as Russia tries to claim though.
cowbolt 4y ago
Maybe a bit pedantic, but Norway (founding member of NATO) shares a border with Russia, although the invasion concern is less pressing.

tlogan 4y ago

There is an old Serbian joke: do you know why Serbia is an Russian ally? Because Russia is far away.

jcranmer 4y ago

I can't take credit for this, but: Putin was looking to Finlandize NATO, but ended up NATOizing Finland instead.

tommiegannert 4y ago

> I must invade a neighboring country to prevent having NATO on my doorstep Even without involving Finland, it's worse than that. If he successfully invades and conquers Ukraine, he will certainly have NATO at his doorstep. I doubt this was his real reasoning. Maybe the plan was to take only as much of Ukraine to show that he could, if he wanted to, take the whole. Effectively turning the Ukraine into a no-mans-land and maintaining the threat of "don't join NATO, or else..." And Finland doesn't have oil to profit from, so he likely had no plans of ever touching that wasp's nest. I'm not a politician nor military strategist, but I prefer not underestimating powerful people when thinking about their strategies.

cableshaft 4y ago
Technically NATO is already 'at their doorstep'. Norway, Estonia, and Latvia share a border with mainland Russia (with Estonia and Latvia being much closer to Moscow than Ukraine is), and Lithuania and Poland also directly border Kaliningrad, which is Russian territory, and Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey only have the Black Sea separating them.
- Animatronio 4y ago
  Yes, but only technically. What matters is the advanced weapons system each of these countries has on its territory. Think Aegis Ashore and the likes of that. Otherwise, they're just empty land (from a military viewpoint).
  - khochesh_kushat 4y ago
    If we free ourselves of the bounds of what is technically true, then we can justify nearly anything. I'm not sure it's a productive line of reasoning.
    - Animatronio 4y ago
      What are you trying to say here? Technically true is still true, so we should take it into account when making a decision.

tyingq 4y ago

It doesn't sound terribly different from the domino theory that led the US to wage war in Vietnam.

causi 4y ago

It was never about NATO. It's about the Bessarabian Gap and the Black Sea. Putin wants the potential invasion routes into Russia.

bshipp 4y ago
No one was ever going to invade a country with ICBMs. The invasion occurred because of Ukraine's movement toward the EU which, eventually, would curtail the ability of Putin and the oligarchs to swindle Russias oil and gas wealth through rampant price fixing and kick-backs. Everything else was rhetoric.
- unmole 4y ago
  > The invasion occurred because of Ukraine's movement toward the EU What meaningful move did Ukraine make towards joining EU to trigger an invasion?
  - bshipp 4y ago
    You mean beyond the 2014 Maidan Revolution and restoration of the 2004 constitutional modifications that began the process of moving toward the EU? Or the 2019 constitutional amendment that placed joining the EU and NATO as a strategic objective for Ukraine?
    - unmole 4y ago
      > r the 2019 constitutional amendment that placed joining the EU and NATO as a strategic objective for Ukraine? TIL!
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      > Or the 2019 constitutional amendment that placed joining the EU and NATO as a strategic objective for Ukraine? Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014. Pretending this counts is like charging a rape victim with criminal assault because they fought back.

throwaway4aday 4y ago

Aggressive war is inexcusable and I condemn all nations that engage in it including Russia and the United States. Ukraine has a right to its sovereignty just as all other nations do, but what you posted is shallow thinking. Look at a map of Europe, put yourself in the mind of a highly suspicious and pessimistic person and ask yourself "how would I invade Russia?" "how do I get an SRBM or MRBM within striking range of Moscow?" "how do I increase my ability to have Russian speaking agents plausibly cross into and out of Russia?" Now put yourself in the mind of someone else seeking power and look at the map and, keeping an eye to history, ask yourself "what is the most effective way to destabilize Russia without involving US forces?" Both parties are playing a very dangerous game that has a non-zero chance of ending with a nuclear exchange, limited or not. If peace was the goal then both sides need to agree to an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of both military and political forces. A new agreement needs to be reached that places Ukraine as a neutral, sovereign country and both sides should pay for reconstruction efforts and restitution to survivors. Of course, peace is never the goal.

0xBDB 4y ago
"Ukraine as a neutral, sovereign country" Based on what Ukraine at least appears to want, especially now, if it is sovereign it won't be neutral, and if forced to be neutral it isn't really sovereign.
- throwaway4aday 4y ago
  Check your logic. If you want to be my room mate and I refuse, does that make you less of an individual?
manuelabeledo 4y ago
> Look at a map of Europe, put yourself in the mind of a highly suspicious and pessimistic person and ask yourself "how would I invade Russia?" "how do I get an SRBM or MRBM within striking range of Moscow?" "how do I increase my ability to have Russian speaking agents plausibly cross into and out of Russia?" You don't need Ukraine to do any of this. Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members already.
4y ago