4 ms·

Should be golden times right now for algorithm and compiler makers. Get more out of the silicon we have and can make. The world doesn’t care if it’s 27nm or 9nm

Should be golden times right now for algorithm and compiler makers. Get more out of the silicon we have and can make. The world doesn’t care if it’s 27nm or 9nm for most use cases. Needs customers to bust the hype cycles or else we remain at mercy of the chip makers and the other hype cycles. There isn’t actually a chip shortage methinks - more like a shortage of intelligence and common sense.

photonbeam 4y ago
Meanwhile electron continues to ship
sigstoat 4y ago
you know there are integrated circuits which aren't CPUs or microcontrollers. it's tough to program your way out of needing a regulator or amplifier or something.
- MengerSponge 4y ago
  No it's fine. We'll just throw the raw data stream at an AI.
  - fnordpiglet 4y ago
    I apologize, as an AI language model I can’t catch the raw data stream as I have no hands.
    - Matumio 4y ago
      Input: 230V AC ; Output: As a large logic module produced at OpenIC, I am not allowed to assist you with dangerous bzzz (smoke rises)
kbaker 4y ago
The worst parts of the chip shortage are not affecting the newer modern lines. It is the older lines, making voltage regulators and power management chips, making it difficult to put the whole solution together. While some of these chips could be redesigned to use new processes, or older designs with larger format fabs brought up to accommodate demand, both of these situations are short-term and thus no one wants to invest.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
solarkraft 4y ago
Microcontrollers are often under-utilized, but that's just because their task is simple. The problem is that current designs use a lot of them: One or more per module. This could probably be reduced by a redesign, but then they could probably also shift to more available chips.
- johannes1234321 4y ago
  Then you likely need more different chips across your line. More different production lines which can stop you. If you standardize on fewer different parts you can buffer some fluctuation in the supply chain.
bob1029 4y ago
Some of the recent AI model advances, such as "Llama.cpp 30B runs with only 6GB of RAM now" are a pretty clear indicator to me that we might already have sufficient hardware for the AGI takeoff sitting under everyones' desks right now.
tyingq 4y ago
Consider that many of these chips are in things like automobile ECUs, aircraft parts, industrial controllers, etc. Changing them requires pretty rigorous testing for timing issues, operating temp ranges, considerable design and test to meet regulatory requirements, etc. Different CPU probably also cascades to needed changes for parts around the CPU, software, and so on. Then, for any entity that successfully moves from one supplier with one process size to a different one...they are creating more demand there, which could precipitate shortages now in that space. Then, there's peripheral effects. Like perhaps some of the suppliers are liking the new per-unit margins during the shortage, and won't just let it all go when demand/supply normalizes.
ModernMech 4y ago
Right? What’s more, we are now using warehouses of GPUs to sort out LLM completions, a lot of which is Python code, the slowest of languages. I mean, it seems like we’ve finally admitted even Python is too hard, so we should instead ask Deep Mind to spend a millennia computing the answers to our questions. And then when it tells us “42”, we need an even bigger computer to understand it, because we’ve outsourced understanding to the computers. We are just coming off the highs of using GPUs to generate mountains of useless money that was used to effect massive scams. But even all that is still going on. And free market capitalism is supposed to result in efficient resource allocation? What are we even doing, trying to accelerate the heat death of the universe? Entropy not increasing fast enough for us? Like… maybe we wouldn’t need so much silicon if we were using it a little better. Might as well just store everything in linked lists. Who even cares about data structures anymore?
- et1337 4y ago
  LLMs are about 0.5% Python. The hot path is all C/C++, or native code running on the GPU. Python is almost just a configuration language to connect it all together.
  - ModernMech 4y ago
    What I'm saying is that the completions are Python code, which is then run through a Python interpreter. I keep reading stories about how this is the future of development, meaning the number of transistors to get 1+1 executing on a computer is astronomical today. Used to be that you could program a computer with everything in your head. Then you had to use the Internet, a global network of information, as a resource because it got so complicated. Now it's so bad that you also need an artificial intelligence that can interpret the information on the Internet. All so we can, what... serve more ads? Invade more privacy? Wage more wars? Earn more profits? What are we even doing with this technology?
    - bornfreddy 4y ago
      > What I'm saying is that the completions are Python code, which is then run through a Python interpreter. Even that is incorrect, or, to be precise, correct that it is indeed Python - however it is that part of Python which is actually written in C/C++ and highly optimized. There is a reason why Python is used for data science, ML and similar. It is both convenient to use and fast, thanks to numpy and other libraries. I realize that the point of your post is something else entirely, but no need to pick on Python. It's actually quite performant in areas where this is needed.

photonbeam 4y ago

Meanwhile electron continues to ship

sigstoat 4y ago

you know there are integrated circuits which aren't CPUs or microcontrollers. it's tough to program your way out of needing a regulator or amplifier or something.

MengerSponge 4y ago
No it's fine. We'll just throw the raw data stream at an AI.
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  I apologize, as an AI language model I can’t catch the raw data stream as I have no hands.
  - Matumio 4y ago
    Input: 230V AC ; Output: As a large logic module produced at OpenIC, I am not allowed to assist you with dangerous bzzz (smoke rises)

kbaker 4y ago

The worst parts of the chip shortage are not affecting the newer modern lines. It is the older lines, making voltage regulators and power management chips, making it difficult to put the whole solution together. While some of these chips could be redesigned to use new processes, or older designs with larger format fabs brought up to accommodate demand, both of these situations are short-term and thus no one wants to invest.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

solarkraft 4y ago

Microcontrollers are often under-utilized, but that's just because their task is simple. The problem is that current designs use a lot of them: One or more per module. This could probably be reduced by a redesign, but then they could probably also shift to more available chips.

johannes1234321 4y ago
Then you likely need more different chips across your line. More different production lines which can stop you. If you standardize on fewer different parts you can buffer some fluctuation in the supply chain.

bob1029 4y ago

Some of the recent AI model advances, such as "Llama.cpp 30B runs with only 6GB of RAM now" are a pretty clear indicator to me that we might already have sufficient hardware for the AGI takeoff sitting under everyones' desks right now.

tyingq 4y ago

Consider that many of these chips are in things like automobile ECUs, aircraft parts, industrial controllers, etc. Changing them requires pretty rigorous testing for timing issues, operating temp ranges, considerable design and test to meet regulatory requirements, etc. Different CPU probably also cascades to needed changes for parts around the CPU, software, and so on. Then, for any entity that successfully moves from one supplier with one process size to a different one...they are creating more demand there, which could precipitate shortages now in that space. Then, there's peripheral effects. Like perhaps some of the suppliers are liking the new per-unit margins during the shortage, and won't just let it all go when demand/supply normalizes.

ModernMech 4y ago

Right? What’s more, we are now using warehouses of GPUs to sort out LLM completions, a lot of which is Python code, the slowest of languages. I mean, it seems like we’ve finally admitted even Python is too hard, so we should instead ask Deep Mind to spend a millennia computing the answers to our questions. And then when it tells us “42”, we need an even bigger computer to understand it, because we’ve outsourced understanding to the computers. We are just coming off the highs of using GPUs to generate mountains of useless money that was used to effect massive scams. But even all that is still going on. And free market capitalism is supposed to result in efficient resource allocation? What are we even doing, trying to accelerate the heat death of the universe? Entropy not increasing fast enough for us? Like… maybe we wouldn’t need so much silicon if we were using it a little better. Might as well just store everything in linked lists. Who even cares about data structures anymore?

et1337 4y ago
LLMs are about 0.5% Python. The hot path is all C/C++, or native code running on the GPU. Python is almost just a configuration language to connect it all together.
- ModernMech 4y ago
  What I'm saying is that the completions are Python code, which is then run through a Python interpreter. I keep reading stories about how this is the future of development, meaning the number of transistors to get 1+1 executing on a computer is astronomical today. Used to be that you could program a computer with everything in your head. Then you had to use the Internet, a global network of information, as a resource because it got so complicated. Now it's so bad that you also need an artificial intelligence that can interpret the information on the Internet. All so we can, what... serve more ads? Invade more privacy? Wage more wars? Earn more profits? What are we even doing with this technology?
  - bornfreddy 4y ago
    > What I'm saying is that the completions are Python code, which is then run through a Python interpreter. Even that is incorrect, or, to be precise, correct that it is indeed Python - however it is that part of Python which is actually written in C/C++ and highly optimized. There is a reason why Python is used for data science, ML and similar. It is both convenient to use and fast, thanks to numpy and other libraries. I realize that the point of your post is something else entirely, but no need to pick on Python. It's actually quite performant in areas where this is needed.