4 ms·

The real question isn't what jobs will go. Every job in the economy now is different from what it was 40 years ago: dev, accountant, doctor, farmer, CEO, plumbe

The real question isn't what jobs will go. Every job in the economy now is different from what it was 40 years ago: dev, accountant, doctor, farmer, CEO, plumber, and so on. The question is where do the gains go? For some jobs, AI becomes a tool that the professional buys and uses to make themselves more productive, and he pockets the difference. If I'm writing apps for a living and I can do it in 6 hours a day, and copilot makes it 5 hours, I'm going to pocket that hour and use it on my family. If I'm a web app company and I can just replace the devs with GPT-5, I'm going to buy it and can all the app devs, and pocket the difference.

Herval_freire 4y ago
Yeah. It really depends whether the technology has the capability to replace devs.
wslh 4y ago
Good point but I think that, economically speaking, you will not pocket that hours as a developer (only initially), they will be arbitraged in the economy and everything will go faster and probably with less people.
- lordnacho 4y ago
  That's not arbitrage, that's just competing away the profits. But yes, don't expect to be able to take it easy for an extra hour forever.
- Scea91 4y ago
  Definitely true, my hope is that we will be achieving new things previously beyond our reach. Judging from things like Star Trek we have a long way to go. The question is whether we remain in the driving seat and as OP said, how the gains will be distributed.
w3454 4y ago
[dead]
winternett 4y ago
Just like how people waxed poetic about how Crypto and NFTs would change life as we know it, here we are... A bunch of failed promises (lies) and shoddy rushed ideas. I've observed many sites implementing Ai -written articles lately, ad frankly the quality of writing is terrible... If this is the future, we're in big trouble. There is a degree of soullessness found in Ai that will probably never be captured. Being isolated with only Ai as an option for interaction destroys mental health, as well will find out once it's too late. Our propensity to rush into profit-seeking/marketing-driven technology schemes is destroying the best parts of our real world with filler and emptiness. I hope innovators take a moment to step back and realize rushing to market will do more damage than ever, and that unique products (not another image generator or text-to-ai subscription service) are better than whatever is going on now. We're light years away from productivity and authenticity in Ai, and it's evident when even Siri and Google Voice still cannot properly understand cues without them being carefully pronounced and phrased. Let's all stop trying to fool everyone about Ai with cheap scripting and create some real tech instead, which takes time and proper testing.
- mikeg8 4y ago
  Way Too pessimistic. we are not light years away from productivity in AI, it’s already arrived for software. I agree that the writing feels soulless but it’s too new to make claims that it’s not “real tech”
  - winternett 4y ago
    Don't mistake practicality for pessimism. Ai is real, and can be achieved, but there is also a very dominant subculture online of cheap hacks and scams in tech now... Look at Theranos, Crypto Scams, Numerous tech projects that get huge funding only to fail Early etc... Overlooking the potential for cheap imitations of technology advancement is all to common, we need to approach everything new with a solid dose of skepticism in order to ensure authenticity.
- rwalle 4y ago
  "Just like... Crypto and NFT..." Seriously? These are comparable things? A lot of people point out problems with crypto in their early days. Most people say NFTs are a scam since day 1. And they have those problems and are a scam. Generative AI, on the other hand, has been proven to provide real value, and will only get better. And I don't know what "failed promises" you are talking about -- NFTs were doomed the first day they appear and we already knew all the hype was fake, while nobody has actually "promised" what generative AIs can do, most are still speculations at this point.

Herval_freire 4y ago

Yeah. It really depends whether the technology has the capability to replace devs.

wslh 4y ago

Good point but I think that, economically speaking, you will not pocket that hours as a developer (only initially), they will be arbitraged in the economy and everything will go faster and probably with less people.

lordnacho 4y ago
That's not arbitrage, that's just competing away the profits. But yes, don't expect to be able to take it easy for an extra hour forever.
Scea91 4y ago
Definitely true, my hope is that we will be achieving new things previously beyond our reach. Judging from things like Star Trek we have a long way to go. The question is whether we remain in the driving seat and as OP said, how the gains will be distributed.

w3454 4y ago

[dead]

winternett 4y ago

Just like how people waxed poetic about how Crypto and NFTs would change life as we know it, here we are... A bunch of failed promises (lies) and shoddy rushed ideas. I've observed many sites implementing Ai -written articles lately, ad frankly the quality of writing is terrible... If this is the future, we're in big trouble. There is a degree of soullessness found in Ai that will probably never be captured. Being isolated with only Ai as an option for interaction destroys mental health, as well will find out once it's too late. Our propensity to rush into profit-seeking/marketing-driven technology schemes is destroying the best parts of our real world with filler and emptiness. I hope innovators take a moment to step back and realize rushing to market will do more damage than ever, and that unique products (not another image generator or text-to-ai subscription service) are better than whatever is going on now. We're light years away from productivity and authenticity in Ai, and it's evident when even Siri and Google Voice still cannot properly understand cues without them being carefully pronounced and phrased. Let's all stop trying to fool everyone about Ai with cheap scripting and create some real tech instead, which takes time and proper testing.

mikeg8 4y ago
Way Too pessimistic. we are not light years away from productivity in AI, it’s already arrived for software. I agree that the writing feels soulless but it’s too new to make claims that it’s not “real tech”
- winternett 4y ago
  Don't mistake practicality for pessimism. Ai is real, and can be achieved, but there is also a very dominant subculture online of cheap hacks and scams in tech now... Look at Theranos, Crypto Scams, Numerous tech projects that get huge funding only to fail Early etc... Overlooking the potential for cheap imitations of technology advancement is all to common, we need to approach everything new with a solid dose of skepticism in order to ensure authenticity.
rwalle 4y ago
"Just like... Crypto and NFT..." Seriously? These are comparable things? A lot of people point out problems with crypto in their early days. Most people say NFTs are a scam since day 1. And they have those problems and are a scam. Generative AI, on the other hand, has been proven to provide real value, and will only get better. And I don't know what "failed promises" you are talking about -- NFTs were doomed the first day they appear and we already knew all the hype was fake, while nobody has actually "promised" what generative AIs can do, most are still speculations at this point.